Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>RBI's failure to cut the policy rate at its last two policy meetings is a policy error. Although vegetables caused a headline-inflation spurt, core inflation moderated to 2.7%YoY in Sep'24. </li>
<li>High real interest rates have caused real GDP to decelerate to 6.7%YoY in Apr-Jun'24, and industrial output to decline in Aug'24. The policy error is hurting the economy. </li>
<li>Cleverer stance would be to take every opportunity to cut rates when headline inflation is at/below target. When vegetable prices hold policy hostage, it hits investor confidence. (Evidence: FX Reserves).  </li>
</ul>


RBI's failure to cut the policy rate at its last two policy meetings is a policy error. Although vegetables caused a headline-inflation spurt, core inflation moderated to 2.7%YoY in Sep'24. 
High real interest rates have caused real GDP to decelerate to 6.7%YoY in Apr-Jun'24, and industrial output to decline in Aug'24. The policy error is hurting the economy. 
Cleverer stance would be to take every opportunity to cut rates when headline inflation is at/below target. When vegetable prices hold policy hostage, it hits investor confidence. (Evidence: FX Reserves).  


India: Clear Policy Error Despite Food-Driven Spurt in Sep'24 Inflation

<ul>
<li>The fiscal deficit's 12mma was below 4.3% of GDP in Jul'24 (far below the 4.9% target for FY25), reflecting surging direct tax revenue and above-target non-tax revenue (dividends).   </li>
<li>Q1FY25 merchandise deficit expanded 10.5%YoY to US$62.08bn, as exports grew 6%YoY and imports 7.7%YoY. Services exports grew 10.6%YoY, services imports 6.9%YoY, widening the services trade surplus 15.4%YoY to US$40.52bn. </li>
<li>Given typical quarterly incomes surplus of US$14.4bn, the CAD in Q1FY25 likely declined 20%YoY to US$7.2bn, so H1CY24 CAD was US$1.5bn (vs US$10.3bn in H1CY23). Seasonality should eliminate FY25 CAD. </li>
</ul>


The fiscal deficit's 12mma was below 4.3% of GDP in Jul'24 (far below the 4.9% target for FY25), reflecting surging direct tax revenue and above-target non-tax revenue (dividends).   
Q1FY25 merchandise deficit expanded 10.5%YoY to US$62.08bn, as exports grew 6%YoY and imports 7.7%YoY. Services exports grew 10.6%YoY, services imports 6.9%YoY, widening the services trade surplus 15.4%YoY to US$40.52bn. 
Given typical quarterly incomes surplus of US$14.4bn, the CAD in Q1FY25 likely declined 20%YoY to US$7.2bn, so H1CY24 CAD was US$1.5bn (vs US$10.3bn in H1CY23). Seasonality should eliminate FY25 CAD. 


India Twin Deficit Watch: Fiscal Deficit Far Below FY25 Target, CAD Set to Vanish

<ul>
<li>11%YoY growth in GFCF enabled real GDP to grow 7.6% YoY in Q2FY24, well ahead of the 6.8% consensus. Manufacturing, construction, utilities and mining grew over 10%YoY in Jul-Sep'23. </li>
<li>Services should grow over 8%YoY in H2FY24 (in line with 26-year average). Manufacturing should grow 9%YoY, delivering 8%+ growth in H2FY24. Reform and productivity enable 8% growth in FY25. </li>
<li>The 12mma of the fiscal deficit fell to 5.8% of GDP in Oct'23, and should fall to 5.5% by Mar'24. This will crowd-in private investment, generating virtuous circle of growth.</li>
</ul>


11%YoY growth in GFCF enabled real GDP to grow 7.6% YoY in Q2FY24, well ahead of the 6.8% consensus. Manufacturing, construction, utilities and mining grew over 10%YoY in Jul-Sep'23. 
Services should grow over 8%YoY in H2FY24 (in line with 26-year average). Manufacturing should grow 9%YoY, delivering 8%+ growth in H2FY24. Reform and productivity enable 8% growth in FY25. 
The 12mma of the fiscal deficit fell to 5.8% of GDP in Oct'23, and should fall to 5.5% by Mar'24. This will crowd-in private investment, generating virtuous circle of growth.


India: Real GDP to Sustain 8%+ YoY Growth over the Next 18 Months

<ul>
<li>For H1FY25, the fiscal deficit was only 29.4% of the FY25 target, with strong income-tax, GST and customs revenue. The 12mma of the fiscal deficit narrowed to 4.6% of GDP.  </li>
<li>Corporate tax revenue grew just 2.3%YoY in H1FY25, reflecting slower profits growth. Stronger government spending likely in H2FY25, but fiscal deficit will still be well below 4.9% of GDP. </li>
<li>CAD likely to be 1.3% of GDP in H1FY25. Lower oil prices, stronger G&amp;S exports should allow a small CA surplus in H2FY25, shrinking FY25 CAD to 0.2% of GDP.</li>
</ul>


For H1FY25, the fiscal deficit was only 29.4% of the FY25 target, with strong income-tax, GST and customs revenue. The 12mma of the fiscal deficit narrowed to 4.6% of GDP.  
Corporate tax revenue grew just 2.3%YoY in H1FY25, reflecting slower profits growth. Stronger government spending likely in H2FY25, but fiscal deficit will still be well below 4.9% of GDP. 
CAD likely to be 1.3% of GDP in H1FY25. Lower oil prices, stronger G&amp;S exports should allow a small CA surplus in H2FY25, shrinking FY25 CAD to 0.2% of GDP.


India Twin Deficit Watch: Improving Trend Persists Despite EPS and Trade Setbacks

Podcast by S&P analysing commodity market trends, Commodities Focus

Commodities Focus

Podcast by S&P analysing commodity market trends

S&P Global Commodity Insights analysis of key news and pricing issues from across the global shipping, natural gas, power, petrochemicals, agriculture, and coal markets.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) is playing a significant role in India's steel industry, accounting for 33% of total steel output</li><li>India's DRI market is characterized by rapid growth driven by steel production targets and sustainable steel making practices</li><li>DRI production is concentrated in central and eastern parts of India, with states like Chhattisgarh and Odisha being prominent producers and trade hubs.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) is playing a significant role in India's steel industry, accounting for 33% of total steel outputIndia's DRI market is characterized by rapid growth driven by steel production targets and sustainable steel making practicesDRI production is concentrated in central and eastern parts of India, with states like Chhattisgarh and Odisha being prominent producers and trade hubs.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Direct-reduced iron: India carving its path to meet 'green' steel ambitions

India

iShares MSCI India Index ETF is an exchange-traded fund registered in Singapore. The Fund seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, closely correspond to the performance of the MSCI India Index. The Fund invests all or substantially all of its assets in shares comprising the MSCI India Index in substantially the same weightings as constituted in the underlying index.

iShares MSCI India Index ETF (INDIA SP)

India: Clear Policy Error Despite Food-Driven Spurt in Sep'24 Inflation

Veg prices can't be controlled by monetary policy, so RBI should've cut rates in Aug & Oct'24, with core & headline inflation below target. Policy...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India Twin Deficit Watch: Fiscal Deficit Far Below FY25 Target, CAD Set to Vanish

12mma fiscal deficit was below 4.3% of GDP in Jul'24, as direct tax revenue surged +20%YoY. 15%YoY rise in services surplus kept H1CY24 CAD down to...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Real GDP to Sustain 8%+ YoY Growth over the Next 18 Months

India stays world's fastest-growing economy with 7.7%YoY RGDP growth in H1FY24. Exports & GFCF will enable >8%YoY growth in H2. Labour reform to...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India Twin Deficit Watch: Improving Trend Persists Despite EPS and Trade Setbacks

Fiscal deficit in H1FY25 was 29.4% of FY25 target, and should end FY25 at 4.7% of GDP. CAD likely to shrink to 0.2% of GDP for FY25. But sluggish...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Direct-reduced iron: India carving its path to meet 'green' steel ambitions

The discussion with Rohan Somanshi, Fred Wong, and Sumita Laik on the Asian metals markets, particularly DRI in India, highlighted the growing...

Commodities Focus

India: Clear Policy Error Despite Food-Driven Spurt in Sep'24 Inflation

Veg prices can't be controlled by monetary policy, so RBI should've cut rates in Aug & Oct'24, with core & headline inflation below target. Policy...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India Twin Deficit Watch: Fiscal Deficit Far Below FY25 Target, CAD Set to Vanish

12mma fiscal deficit was below 4.3% of GDP in Jul'24, as direct tax revenue surged +20%YoY. 15%YoY rise in services surplus kept H1CY24 CAD down to...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Real GDP to Sustain 8%+ YoY Growth over the Next 18 Months

India stays world's fastest-growing economy with 7.7%YoY RGDP growth in H1FY24. Exports & GFCF will enable >8%YoY growth in H2. Labour reform to...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India Twin Deficit Watch: Improving Trend Persists Despite EPS and Trade Setbacks

​Fiscal deficit in H1FY25 was 29.4% of FY25 target, and should end FY25 at 4.7% of GDP. CAD likely to shrink to 0.2% of GDP for FY25. But sluggish...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Direct-reduced iron: India carving its path to meet 'green' steel ambitions

The discussion with Rohan Somanshi, Fred Wong, and Sumita Laik on the Asian metals markets, particularly DRI in India, highlighted the growing...

Commodities Focus

Fiscal deficit in H1FY25 was 29.4% of FY25 target, and should end FY25 at 4.7% of GDP. CAD likely to shrink to 0.2% of GDP for FY25. But sluggish...