Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Last week analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. We maintain the BUY call based on target price of Bt48.0 derived using SOTP methodology, implying 9.0xPE’22E.</li>
<li>The 2Q22 earnings is expected to improve QoQ from1 higher share of profit from HPC, 2)equity income from new 145MWe  gas PP COD in 1Q22.While full quarter profit from 476M </li>
<li>We see the 2022-25 outlook promising,considering 1)Steady earnings growth supported by 28% PP operating capacity expansion and 2)rising RE proportion which will rule out the ESG concerns and support rerating</li>
</ul>


Last week analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. We maintain the BUY call based on target price of Bt48.0 derived using SOTP methodology, implying 9.0xPE’22E.
The 2Q22 earnings is expected to improve QoQ from1 higher share of profit from HPC, 2)equity income from new 145MWe  gas PP COD in 1Q22.While full quarter profit from 476M 
We see the 2022-25 outlook promising,considering 1)Steady earnings growth supported by 28% PP operating capacity expansion and 2)rising RE proportion which will rule out the ESG concerns and support rerating


RATCH: New Capacity Addition Would Offset EPS Dilution

<ul>
<li>Last week analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. We maintain the BUY call based on target price of Bt48.0 derived using SOTP methodology, implying 9.0xPE’22E.</li>
<li>The 1Q22 earnings is expected to soften QoQ due to seasonal weak contribution from Hydro projects, RAC (Australia), and weak domestic SPP margins. The earnings should pick up 2Q22 onwards</li>
<li>The 2022 net profit growth will be supported by 1)full year profit recognition of 377MWe projects added in 2021 (Yandin&amp;collector wind farm) and 2) 150MWe new project COD in 2022.</li>
</ul>


Last week analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. We maintain the BUY call based on target price of Bt48.0 derived using SOTP methodology, implying 9.0xPE’22E.
The 1Q22 earnings is expected to soften QoQ due to seasonal weak contribution from Hydro projects, RAC (Australia), and weak domestic SPP margins. The earnings should pick up 2Q22 onwards
The 2022 net profit growth will be supported by 1)full year profit recognition of 377MWe projects added in 2021 (Yandin&amp;collector wind farm) and 2) 150MWe new project COD in 2022.


RATCH: Minor Dilution Impact from Capital Raising

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Hang Seng announced the results of the March rebalance post market close Friday. Two adds for the HSI, one set of changes for HSCEI, three sets for HSTECH.</li>
<li>An ad hoc rebalance was announced for the KOSDAQ150 following Osstem being designated an 'Administrative Issue'. In IPO world, we have LIC in India and SBI Sumishin NetBank coming up.</li>
<li>Friday was the review cutoff date for the March rebalance of the ASX200 Index. The ATO has provided Aventus with the tax ruling and that creates a timing issue.</li>
</ul>


Hang Seng announced the results of the March rebalance post market close Friday. Two adds for the HSI, one set of changes for HSCEI, three sets for HSTECH.
An ad hoc rebalance was announced for the KOSDAQ150 following Osstem being designated an 'Administrative Issue'. In IPO world, we have LIC in India and SBI Sumishin NetBank coming up.
Friday was the review cutoff date for the March rebalance of the ASX200 Index. The ATO has provided Aventus with the tax ruling and that creates a timing issue.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSCI, S&P/ASX, SET50, LIC, SBI Sumishin, Crown

<ul>
<li>The market cap review period for the June rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> starts in a couple of weeks.</li>
<li>Using the last close, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmt-network-services-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8581:1" rel="noopener">JMT Network Services (JMT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-life-assurance-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16237:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Life Assurance (BLA)</a> as potential inclusions, replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ratch-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15338:1" rel="noopener">Ratch Group PCL (RATCH TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kce-electronics-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1892:1" rel="noopener">KCE Electronics PCL (KCE TB)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ratch-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15338:1" rel="noopener">Ratch Group PCL</a> is the lowest ranked index constituent and needs to move 15% higher to avoid deletion. Passive trackers will need to sell nearly 4 days of ADV.</li>
</ul>


The market cap review period for the June rebalance of the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) starts in a couple of weeks.
Using the last close, we see JMT Network Services (JMT) and Bangkok Life Assurance (BLA) as potential inclusions, replacing Ratch Group PCL (RATCH TB) and KCE Electronics PCL (KCE TB).

Ratch Group PCL is the lowest ranked index constituent and needs to move 15% higher to avoid deletion. Passive trackers will need to sell nearly 4 days of ADV.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview (June): Two Changes, Maybe Three

<ul>
<li>Analyst meeting came out in a positive tone, given the positive 2022 outlook backed by new project additions. We maintain our target price of Bt48.0,while upgrade the recommendation to BUY </li>
<li>We see the 3 deals in 2021 viz, 1) 45% stake in 2.0GW Paiton coal power plant Indonesia (931MWe) 2) Acquisition of Sahacogen (Chonburi) PCL, Thailand (SCG TB), </li>
<li>We estimate an upside of Bt9.0 to our TP from the 3  project additions, We will revise our earnings forecast and TP after the deals are closed.</li>
</ul>


Analyst meeting came out in a positive tone, given the positive 2022 outlook backed by new project additions. We maintain our target price of Bt48.0,while upgrade the recommendation to BUY 
We see the 3 deals in 2021 viz, 1) 45% stake in 2.0GW Paiton coal power plant Indonesia (931MWe) 2) Acquisition of Sahacogen (Chonburi) PCL, Thailand (SCG TB), 
We estimate an upside of Bt9.0 to our TP from the 3  project additions, We will revise our earnings forecast and TP after the deals are closed.


RATCH: Solid 2022 Outlook from New Project Additions

Thailand

Ratch Group PCL operates as a power producer company. The Company focuses on investment fossil fuel power generation and renewable projects, as well as businesses adjacent to electricity generation and energy. Ratchaburi Group serves customers in Asia.

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Ratch Group PCL (RATCH TB)

RATCH: New Capacity Addition Would Offset EPS Dilution

Last week analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. We maintain the BUY call based on target price of Bt48.0 derived using SOTP methodology,...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

RATCH: Minor Dilution Impact from Capital Raising

Last week analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. We maintain the BUY call based on target price of Bt48.0 derived using SOTP methodology,...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSCI, S&P/ASX, SET50, LIC, SBI Sumishin, Crown

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview (June): Two Changes, Maybe Three

JMT and BLA could replace RATCH and KCE in the SET50 index at the June rebalance. There could be an adhoc change if the DTAC/TRUE merger is...

Brian Freitas

RATCH: Solid 2022 Outlook from New Project Additions

Analyst meeting came out in a positive tone, given the positive 2022 outlook backed by new project additions. We maintain our target price of...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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