Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Astera Labs, a cloud- and AI connectivity-focused semiconductor company, filed to go public. Top-tier underwriters Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan are leading the offering.</li>
<li>The fabless semiconductor unicorn plans to raise up to $500M. Selling stockholders intend to sell shares and the number of shares is yet to be announced.</li>
<li>I like the long-term, AI/cloud story. However, the IPO may look too pricey at more than $3B valuation despite the company’s revenue acceleration and improving profitability.</li>
</ul>


Astera Labs, a cloud- and AI connectivity-focused semiconductor company, filed to go public. Top-tier underwriters Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan are leading the offering.
The fabless semiconductor unicorn plans to raise up to $500M. Selling stockholders intend to sell shares and the number of shares is yet to be announced.
I like the long-term, AI/cloud story. However, the IPO may look too pricey at more than $3B valuation despite the company’s revenue acceleration and improving profitability.


Astera Labs IPO Preview and Valuation Analysis: Will Pricey IPO Frighten The Investors Off?

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Welcome to this week’s earnings. My spark notes are the NXPI and IFX did better than I feared, but I continue to be unconstructive on automotive.</li><li>Fabrinet and Coherent both achieved good results, but Fabrinet disappointed expectations for Nvidia's pluggable revenue. Is this a weak read-through? Unlikely. Marvell should have an amazing year if Coherent’s TAM is remotely correct.</li><li>MKSI put up the exact results I was looking for, and this continues to be my favorite idea. As WFE increases, inventory builds will happen, and then financial and operational leverage will take care of the rest.</li></ul>

Welcome to this week’s earnings. My spark notes are the NXPI and IFX did better than I feared, but I continue to be unconstructive on automotive.Fabrinet and Coherent both achieved good results, but Fabrinet disappointed expectations for Nvidia's pluggable revenue. Is this a weak read-through? Unlikely. Marvell should have an amazing year if Coherent’s TAM is remotely correct.MKSI put up the exact results I was looking for, and this continues to be my favorite idea. As WFE increases, inventory builds will happen, and then financial and operational leverage will take care of the rest.

Automotive (NXPI, IFX) Optics (FN, COHR), MKSI, MPWR, ACLS, SLAB, RMBS, ARM

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The announcement of the inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uber-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:430:1" rel="noopener">Uber Technologies (UBER US)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a> was a big one last week. There were announcements for some other indices too.</li>
<li>There are many indices in China that will be rebalanced at the close on Friday, the biggest being the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kraneshares-csi-china-internet-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28208:1" rel="noopener">KWEB US</a>.</li>
<li>Relatively quiet in ETF world with net inflows to China focused ETFs and net outflows for Japan.</li>
</ul>


The announcement of the inclusion of Uber Technologies (UBER US) in the S&amp;P 500 INDEX was a big one last week. There were announcements for some other indices too.
There are many indices in China that will be rebalanced at the close on Friday, the biggest being the CSI 300, CSI 500, STAR50, SSE50 and KWEB US.
Relatively quiet in ETF world with net inflows to China focused ETFs and net outflows for Japan.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KWEB, CSI300/500, STAR50, SSE50, ChiNext, SET50, Chips, Denso, SPX

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>HBM DRAM, used for GPUs in AI, has enjoyed stable pricing while other DRAM prices have collapsed</li>
<li>This has attracted the attention of all DRAM makers, but SK hynix has a first-mover advantage</li>
<li>Although increased competition will reduce HBM prices, it will have little impact on GPU maker margins</li>
</ul>


HBM DRAM, used for GPUs in AI, has enjoyed stable pricing while other DRAM prices have collapsed
This has attracted the attention of all DRAM makers, but SK hynix has a first-mover advantage
Although increased competition will reduce HBM prices, it will have little impact on GPU maker margins


<ul><li>Another week in earnings, the big theme I can point out is the continued and persistent weakness in the Industrial market.</li><li>Reminder: in a first-in-first-out (FIFO) framework, the first into the inventory correction were PCs and Smartphones.</li><li>Then, networking and data center, and we are now seeing Industrial start their inventory correction cycle. I don’t think this is the last we will hear about this. </li></ul>

Another week in earnings, the big theme I can point out is the continued and persistent weakness in the Industrial market.Reminder: in a first-in-first-out (FIFO) framework, the first into the inventory correction were PCs and Smartphones.Then, networking and data center, and we are now seeing Industrial start their inventory correction cycle. I don’t think this is the last we will hear about this. 

Earnings Season Post (ANET, AMKR, RMBS, LSCC, AMD, Advantest, SLAB, QCOM, QRVO, ENTG, SITM...)

United States

Rambus Inc. designs, develops, licenses, and markets high-speed chip-to-chip interface technology to enhance the performance and cost-effectiveness of consumer electronics, computer systems, and other electronic systems.  The Company licenses semiconductor companies to manufacture and sell memory and logic ICs incorporating Rambus interface technology.

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Rambus (RMBS US)

Astera Labs IPO Preview and Valuation Analysis: Will Pricey IPO Frighten The Investors Off?

California-based Astera Labs has filed for an IPO and plans to raise up to $500M. The fabless semiconductor unicorn may be valued at more than $3B,...

Andrei Zakharov

Automotive (NXPI, IFX) Optics (FN, COHR), MKSI, MPWR, ACLS, SLAB, RMBS, ARM

Welcome to this week’s earnings. My spark notes are the NXPI and IFX did better than I feared, but I continue to be unconstructive on automotive...

Fabricated Knowledge

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KWEB, CSI300/500, STAR50, SSE50, ChiNext, SET50, Chips, Denso, SPX

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

HBM's Impact on DRAM Revenues

HBM DRAM prices remained stable while mainstream DRAM prices collapsed, attracting attention from all DRAM makers. SK hynix holds a first-mover...

Jim Handy

Earnings Season Post (ANET, AMKR, RMBS, LSCC, AMD, Advantest, SLAB, QCOM, QRVO, ENTG, SITM...)

Another week in earnings, the big theme I can point out is the continued and persistent weakness in the Industrial market.

Fabricated Knowledge

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Astera Labs IPO Preview and Valuation Analysis: Will Pricey IPO Frighten The Investors Off?

California-based Astera Labs has filed for an IPO and plans to raise up to $500M. The fabless semiconductor unicorn may be valued at more than $3B,...

Andrei Zakharov

Automotive (NXPI, IFX) Optics (FN, COHR), MKSI, MPWR, ACLS, SLAB, RMBS, ARM

Welcome to this week’s earnings. My spark notes are the NXPI and IFX did better than I feared, but I continue to be unconstructive on automotive...

Fabricated Knowledge

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KWEB, CSI300/500, STAR50, SSE50, ChiNext, SET50, Chips, Denso, SPX

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

HBM's Impact on DRAM Revenues

​HBM DRAM prices remained stable while mainstream DRAM prices collapsed, attracting attention from all DRAM makers. SK hynix holds a first-mover...

Jim Handy

Earnings Season Post (ANET, AMKR, RMBS, LSCC, AMD, Advantest, SLAB, QCOM, QRVO, ENTG, SITM...)

Another week in earnings, the big theme I can point out is the continued and persistent weakness in the Industrial market.

Fabricated Knowledge

HBM DRAM prices remained stable while mainstream DRAM prices collapsed, attracting attention from all DRAM makers. SK hynix holds a first-mover...