Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Group (4755 JP)</a> announced it would propose an amendment to its Articles at the AGM (28 March) to issue "Bond-Type Class Shares."   First reaction: You wot, mate?</li>
<li>The company states it wants to "strengthen its financial base through reducing interesting-bearing debt by equity-related financings and conduct proactive control of debt maturity schedule, etc."
</li>
<li>Now it wants to issue listed bond-type shares. Dividends not interest. The last Japanese issuer of something similar was NEC in 2001. Few will remember, so we study the situation.</li>
</ul>


Today, Rakuten Group (4755 JP) announced it would propose an amendment to its Articles at the AGM (28 March) to issue "Bond-Type Class Shares."   First reaction: You wot, mate?
The company states it wants to "strengthen its financial base through reducing interesting-bearing debt by equity-related financings and conduct proactive control of debt maturity schedule, etc."

Now it wants to issue listed bond-type shares. Dividends not interest. The last Japanese issuer of something similar was NEC in 2001. Few will remember, so we study the situation.


Rakuten's New "Bond-Type Share" Issuance - Quite Quirky to Quantulate Rakuten's Quisquous New Quoz

<ul>
<li>A couple of years ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a> - burning through cash to start its mobile business - announced it would its Bank and Securities units. Bank listed. Securities didn't.</li>
<li>Mizuho ended up buying 49% of Securities. Today, it was announced there would be discussions to put Bank, Securities, Card, and Insurance in a new listed Holdco.</li>
<li>How this works will end up being complicated. More complicated than it should be. But the complexity would make this more of a win-win for everyone. </li>
</ul>


A couple of years ago, Rakuten (4755 JP) - burning through cash to start its mobile business - announced it would its Bank and Securities units. Bank listed. Securities didn't.
Mizuho ended up buying 49% of Securities. Today, it was announced there would be discussions to put Bank, Securities, Card, and Insurance in a new listed Holdco.
How this works will end up being complicated. More complicated than it should be. But the complexity would make this more of a win-win for everyone. 


If Rakuten (4755) Combines Financial Units... Who Wins and How? Well... It's Complicated

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-433'>Fosun International</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-13359'>Lenovo</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-10946'>Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-11842'>NTPC Ltd</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-31'>Rakuten</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Fosun InternationalLenovoLippo Malls Indonesia Retail TrustNTPC LtdRakuten

Morning Views Asia: Fosun International, Lenovo, Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust, NTPC Ltd, Rakuten

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Group (4755 JP)</a>'s shares plummeted 80% in 8 years, reaching ¥500 in June 2023 due to ¥1.3 trillion mobile business losses.</li>
<li>Expecting a positive shift as Rakuten Mobile approaches platinum band access and subscribers poised for exponential growth following the KDDI agreement.</li>
<li>We are expecting Rakuten Mobile to turn profitable next year, while the consensus is projecting an operating loss of around ¥200bn for the business.</li>
</ul>



Rakuten Group (4755 JP)'s shares plummeted 80% in 8 years, reaching ¥500 in June 2023 due to ¥1.3 trillion mobile business losses.
Expecting a positive shift as Rakuten Mobile approaches platinum band access and subscribers poised for exponential growth following the KDDI agreement.
We are expecting Rakuten Mobile to turn profitable next year, while the consensus is projecting an operating loss of around ¥200bn for the business.


Rakuten Mobile Could Be Churning Profits Next Year

<ul>
<li>Last Friday, the FFW changes for the TOPIX July Free Float Weight Review were announced. There have also been other recent announcements creating flows on 30 July.</li>
<li>Some of these other recent announcements represent a possible change in ad hoc methodology.</li>
<li>Total Flow for 30 July is ~$3.3bn a side driven by selling flows (3/4 of the buy flows are reverse funding). $2.1bn of selling is &gt; 3 days ADV.</li>
</ul>


Last Friday, the FFW changes for the TOPIX July Free Float Weight Review were announced. There have also been other recent announcements creating flows on 30 July.
Some of these other recent announcements represent a possible change in ad hoc methodology.
Total Flow for 30 July is ~$3.3bn a side driven by selling flows (3/4 of the buy flows are reverse funding). $2.1bn of selling is &gt; 3 days ADV.


July TOPIX FFW Rebal - Bigger Than Expected

Japan

Rakuten Group, Inc. provides Internet services. The Company offers Internet finance services which including "Rakuten Card" and "Rakuten Bank". Rakuten Group also provides digital content services including electronic book services.

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Rakuten (4755 JP)

If Rakuten (4755) Combines Financial Units... Who Wins and How? Well... It's Complicated

Today, Rakuten Bank and parent extended their "Fintech Reorganisation" timetable to Jan 1. I still think the best way is to have Rakuten Bk issue...

Travis Lundy

Morning Views Asia: Fosun International, Lenovo, Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust, NTPC Ltd, Rakuten

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Rakuten Mobile Could Be Churning Profits Next Year

Rakuten shares fell 80% due to ¥1.3tn Mobile losses. Expecting growth with platinum band access and KDDI aggrement. Anticipate Mobile profitability...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

July TOPIX FFW Rebal - Bigger Than Expected

The TOPIX July FFW Review is more interesting than it would appear at first glance. There are some trades to do too. Watch Rakuten, Nippon Paint,...

Travis Lundy

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Market Cap (USDm)

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Rakuten's New "Bond-Type Share" Issuance - Quite Quirky to Quantulate Rakuten's Quisquous New Quoz

Rakuten (4755) today announced they would seek shareholder approval to issue "Bond-Type Shares". MILES better than Toyota's AA Shares. But odd....

Travis Lundy

If Rakuten (4755) Combines Financial Units... Who Wins and How? Well... It's Complicated

Today, Rakuten Bank and parent extended their "Fintech Reorganisation" timetable to Jan 1. I still think the best way is to have Rakuten Bk issue...

Travis Lundy

Morning Views Asia: Fosun International, Lenovo, Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust, NTPC Ltd, Rakuten

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Rakuten Mobile Could Be Churning Profits Next Year

Rakuten shares fell 80% due to ¥1.3tn Mobile losses. Expecting growth with platinum band access and KDDI aggrement. Anticipate Mobile profitability...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

July TOPIX FFW Rebal - Bigger Than Expected

The TOPIX July FFW Review is more interesting than it would appear at first glance. There are some trades to do too. Watch Rakuten, Nippon Paint,...

Travis Lundy