Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qualcomm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:969:1" rel="noopener">Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)</a> 2Q25 (March-25) spot inline with expectations, 4Q guidance inline with expectations. Revenue growth is slowing down sharply in June. Consensus expects further slowdown in 2H25. </li>
<li>QCOM is losing iPhone modem, Android is not growing in units but chips become more expensive with AI, new revenue streams (AI PC, Auto, Industrial IoT) are not well understood. </li>
<li>The result is Consensus forecasting basically no EPS growth in FY26-27 and the stock is trading at 12x EPS, almost -1 standard deviation below average PEx</li>
</ul>



Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US) 2Q25 (March-25) spot inline with expectations, 4Q guidance inline with expectations. Revenue growth is slowing down sharply in June. Consensus expects further slowdown in 2H25. 
QCOM is losing iPhone modem, Android is not growing in units but chips become more expensive with AI, new revenue streams (AI PC, Auto, Industrial IoT) are not well understood. 
The result is Consensus forecasting basically no EPS growth in FY26-27 and the stock is trading at 12x EPS, almost -1 standard deviation below average PEx


Qualcomm 2Q25 (March 25): Boring and Cheap

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Qualcomm reported a strong financial performance in its latest quarter, with revenue increasing 17% year-over year to $11.67 billion, surpassing analyst expectations.</li><li>Growth was primarily driven by increased sales in its handset and automotive segments.</li><li>Despite a broader market slowdown, Qualcomm’s handset revenue rose 13%, benefiting from higher premium-tier smartphone sales and design wins with major manufacturers like Samsung and Chinese OEMs. The company also reported a 61% increase in automotive revenue to $961 million, reflecting strong demand for its Snapdragon Digital Chassis solutions.</li></ul>

Qualcomm reported a strong financial performance in its latest quarter, with revenue increasing 17% year-over year to $11.67 billion, surpassing analyst expectations.Growth was primarily driven by increased sales in its handset and automotive segments.Despite a broader market slowdown, Qualcomm’s handset revenue rose 13%, benefiting from higher premium-tier smartphone sales and design wins with major manufacturers like Samsung and Chinese OEMs. The company also reported a 61% increase in automotive revenue to $961 million, reflecting strong demand for its Snapdragon Digital Chassis solutions.

Qualcomm’s AI-Powered Future: Will It Dominate PCs, Smartphones, and Cars?

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Q125 revenues of $11.7 billion, up 18% YoY, up 15% QoQ and marginally above the high end of the guided range. This represented the company’s highest ever quarterly revenue</li>
<li>In December, Snapdragon X Series had more than 10% share of the greater than $800 Windows laptops in U.S. retail.</li>
<li>A recent hire suggests Qualcomm has an ace up their sleeve and that they are poised to launch yet another diversification gambit</li>
</ul>


Q125 revenues of $11.7 billion, up 18% YoY, up 15% QoQ and marginally above the high end of the guided range. This represented the company’s highest ever quarterly revenue
In December, Snapdragon X Series had more than 10% share of the greater than $800 Windows laptops in U.S. retail.
A recent hire suggests Qualcomm has an ace up their sleeve and that they are poised to launch yet another diversification gambit


Qualcomm Q125. Firing On All Cylinders & An Ace Up Their Sleeve...

<ul>
<li>Pretty good Dec-24 quarter (1Q25), ~10% above expectations. Decent Mar-25 (2Q25) guidance, ~5% above expectations. The stock is down after hours, because?</li>
<li>FY25, I estimate Mobile revenues up ~10% YoY, Auto ~30%, IoT ~20%. QCOM said that Licensing revenues will be flat. Total revenue growth ~12% YoY, I expect similar for FY26.</li>
<li>Conclusion: nothing exciting, management reiterates big non-mobile revenue targets by 2029 (US$22bn) but downside from Apple Modem ending in 2027. In the meantime the stock is properly valued.</li>
</ul>


Pretty good Dec-24 quarter (1Q25), ~10% above expectations. Decent Mar-25 (2Q25) guidance, ~5% above expectations. The stock is down after hours, because?
FY25, I estimate Mobile revenues up ~10% YoY, Auto ~30%, IoT ~20%. QCOM said that Licensing revenues will be flat. Total revenue growth ~12% YoY, I expect similar for FY26.
Conclusion: nothing exciting, management reiterates big non-mobile revenue targets by 2029 (US$22bn) but downside from Apple Modem ending in 2027. In the meantime the stock is properly valued.


QCOM: Moderate Growth, Average Valuations – Nothing to Get Excited About

<ul>
<li>Sept-24 result and Dec-24 guidance beat expectations by ~5%. Results show 3 important and sustainable trends: smartphone premiumization (5G and AI penetration), strong growth in Automotive and IoT (AI PC).</li>
<li>Consensus expectations are moderately low. Stock valuations at average, reflecting doubts on Auto and PC addressable market and Arm lawsuits. QCOM management mentions “broad, well-established rights for custom CPU”.</li>
<li>Stock is up 4% during trading hours, another 7%  after results. Arm lawsuit is not simple / binary, with both parties overreaching, in our view. The stock has more upside.</li>
</ul>


Sept-24 result and Dec-24 guidance beat expectations by ~5%. Results show 3 important and sustainable trends: smartphone premiumization (5G and AI penetration), strong growth in Automotive and IoT (AI PC).
Consensus expectations are moderately low. Stock valuations at average, reflecting doubts on Auto and PC addressable market and Arm lawsuits. QCOM management mentions “broad, well-established rights for custom CPU”.
Stock is up 4% during trading hours, another 7%  after results. Arm lawsuit is not simple / binary, with both parties overreaching, in our view. The stock has more upside.


Qualcomm Sep-24: Nice Beat, Dec-24 Guide Small Beat. 3 Growth Factors: Smartphone AI, Automotive, PC

United States

QUALCOMM, Inc . manufactures digital wireless communications equipment.  The Company licenses its code division multiple access (CDMA) and orthogonal frequency division multiplexing access intellectual property to other companies, and produces CDMA-based integrated circuits; and produces equipment and software used to track workers and assets; and software for wireless content enablement.

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Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)

Qualcomm 2Q25 (March 25): Boring and Cheap

Qualcomm 2Q25 results meet expectations, but revenue growth is slowing down sharply. Consensus expects further slowdown in 2H25 on loss of iPhone...

Nicolas Baratte

Qualcomm’s AI-Powered Future: Will It Dominate PCs, Smartphones, and Cars?

Qualcomm reported a strong financial performance in its latest quarter, with revenue increasing 17% year-over year to $11.67 billion, surpassing...

Baptista Research

Qualcomm Q125. Firing On All Cylinders & An Ace Up Their Sleeve...

A recent hire suggests Qualcomm has an ace up their sleeve and that they are poised to launch yet another diversification gambit. Now what could...

William Keating

QCOM: Moderate Growth, Average Valuations – Nothing to Get Excited About

Stock down after hours despite strong quarter and guidance, as outlook is "average" or as expected. Management reiterates non-mobile revenue...

Nicolas Baratte

Qualcomm Sep-24: Nice Beat, Dec-24 Guide Small Beat. 3 Growth Factors: Smartphone AI, Automotive, PC

3 sustainable trends: smartphone premiumization (5G, AI), strong growth in Automotive and IoT (AI PC). Main concern is Arm lawsuit, not a simple...

Nicolas Baratte

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Qualcomm 2Q25 (March 25): Boring and Cheap

​Qualcomm 2Q25 results meet expectations, but revenue growth is slowing down sharply. Consensus expects further slowdown in 2H25 on loss of iPhone...

Nicolas Baratte

Qualcomm’s AI-Powered Future: Will It Dominate PCs, Smartphones, and Cars?

Qualcomm reported a strong financial performance in its latest quarter, with revenue increasing 17% year-over year to $11.67 billion, surpassing...

Baptista Research

Qualcomm Q125. Firing On All Cylinders & An Ace Up Their Sleeve...

A recent hire suggests Qualcomm has an ace up their sleeve and that they are poised to launch yet another diversification gambit. Now what could...

William Keating

QCOM: Moderate Growth, Average Valuations – Nothing to Get Excited About

​Stock down after hours despite strong quarter and guidance, as outlook is "average" or as expected. Management reiterates non-mobile revenue...

Nicolas Baratte

Qualcomm Sep-24: Nice Beat, Dec-24 Guide Small Beat. 3 Growth Factors: Smartphone AI, Automotive, PC

3 sustainable trends: smartphone premiumization (5G, AI), strong growth in Automotive and IoT (AI PC). Main concern is Arm lawsuit, not a simple...

Nicolas Baratte

Qualcomm 2Q25 results meet expectations, but revenue growth is slowing down sharply. Consensus expects further slowdown in 2H25 on loss of iPhone...

Stock down after hours despite strong quarter and guidance, as outlook is "average" or as expected. Management reiterates non-mobile revenue...