FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

In stepping back for a moment to assess what exactly is hurting global investor confidence, it is not as easy as it seems to put a finger on the source or extent of the problem and, therefore, what might restore confidence.  There is a wide degree of global market uncertainty at this time that in itself is holding markets back.  It may take some time for confidence to be restored, and indeed confidence may remain relatively low for the foreseeable future.  Most recently the oil market appears to be at the epicenter of the upheaval.  Uncertainty and volatility in the oil market is unprecedented in recent memory and the contagion to global markets has reached globally systemic levels.  Until greater clarity is restored to the oil market, the risk is high of still more severe global market upheaval and more extreme central bank policy responses.

 In stepping back for a moment to assess what exactly is hurting global investor confidence, it is not as easy as it seems to put a finger on the source or extent of the problem and, therefore, what might restore confidence.  There is a wide degree of global market uncertainty at this time that in itself is holding markets back.  It may take some time for confidence to be restored, and indeed confidence may remain relatively low for the foreseeable future.  Most recently the oil market appears to be at the epicenter of the upheaval.  Uncertainty and volatility in the oil market is unprecedented in recent memory and the contagion to global markets has reached globally systemic levels.  Until greater clarity is restored to the oil market, the risk is high of still more severe global market upheaval and more extreme central bank policy responses.

AmpGFX - Oil Leaves a Slippery Slick for Global Markets

CEO, CIO, ClearMacro

Mike Simcock

CEO, CIO

Strategic & Tactical Asset Allocation Global Macro

ClearMacro

CIO, & CEO ClearMacro Ltd
An institutional investor with over 25 years experience, laterly having spent 10 years at GIC Singapore SWF. Managng Director, managing Global Macro, FIxed Income (Europe) and Global Credit businesses.
Passionate about utilising technology to enhance portfolio idea generation across global, multi-asset classes and optimisation of the investment process.

With bond yields at floor levels with limited policy options to sustain zero or negative interest rates what is the future for fixed income? Is there any value to be found in an area of the fixed income markets? We show that some of the best current risk-adjusted asset allocation opportunities in any global public markets are in fixed income markets and sectors.

With bond yields at floor levels with limited policy options to sustain zero or negative interest rates what is the future for fixed income? Is there any value to be found in an area of the fixed income markets? We show that some of the best current risk-adjusted asset allocation opportunities in any global public markets are in fixed income markets and sectors.  

After the recent global sell off across risk assets, we ask 'is there value from a tactical allocation perspective? ClearMacro's virtual tactician "Alex" suggests not. The oil market remains firmly streteched because of the supply-demand imbalance right now offering no suggestion of a sustainable rebound. Hold-off entering tactical longs in risky assets for now.

After the recent global sell off across risk assets, we ask 'is there value from a tactical allocation perspective? ClearMacro's virtual tactician "Alex" suggests not. The oil market remains firmly streteched because of the supply-demand imbalance right now offering no suggestion of a sustainable rebound. Hold-off entering tactical longs in risky assets for now.       

S interest rates have fallen significantly this year (-36bp) reducing the USD yield advantage.  This has been matched by the GBP and CAD, but AUD and NZD rates have been much more stable than previous episodes of global risk aversion. The Fed is sticking to its outlook for gradual policy tightening, but weak growth is expected to be reported in Q4, activity indicators are weak heading into 2016, medium and longer term inflation expectations are down sharply, and the only plank left supporting rate hike forecasts is the solid labor market.  However, recent unemployment claims have drifted up, and a considerable pause in US rates appears likely.  The US economy has been dragged back to the pack to some extent by the deep fall in oil prices.  While the US energy sector is not all that large, it is much more cyclical than OPEC countries, and activity in this sector has been a factor slowing the US economy.   We may be moving into a phase where confidence in the US economy is waning.  This may tend to weaken the USD in 2016.  Global risk aversion and weaker commodity prices may also weaken commodity and emerging market currencies, but if perceptions on US monetary policy change enough, even these currencies may recover at some point.

S interest rates have fallen significantly this year (-36bp) reducing the USD yield advantage.  This has been matched by the GBP and CAD, but AUD and NZD rates have been much more stable than previous episodes of global risk aversion. The Fed is sticking to its outlook for gradual policy tightening, but weak growth is expected to be reported in Q4, activity indicators are weak heading into 2016, medium and longer term inflation expectations are down sharply, and the only plank left supporting rate hike forecasts is the solid labor market.  However, recent unemployment claims have drifted up, and a considerable pause in US rates appears likely.  The US economy has been dragged back to the pack to some extent by the deep fall in oil prices.  While the US energy sector is not all that large, it is much more cyclical than OPEC countries, and activity in this sector has been a factor slowing the US economy.   We may be moving into a phase where confidence in the US economy is waning.  This may tend to weaken the USD in 2016.  Global risk aversion and weaker commodity prices may also weaken commodity and emerging market currencies, but if perceptions on US monetary policy change enough, even these currencies may recover at some point.

Public Relations and Social Media Manager, Dechert LLP

Peggy Heffner

Public Relations and Social Media Manager

Dechert is a global specialist law firm

Dechert LLP

Dechert is a global specialist law firm.
Focused on sectors with the greatest complexities, legal intricacies and highest regulatory demands, we excel in delivering practical commercial judgment and deep legal expertise for high-stakes matters.

Our work is widely recognized. We have 20 standout practices noted by Chambers Global, including global-wide rankings for arbitration, corporate investigations, anti-corruption, investment funds and life sciences. Named Antitrust Team of the Year, Chambers USA commends our “accomplished group” as “routinely sought after to handle some of the most significant litigation and transactions in the antitrust world.” 

In an increasingly challenging environment, clients look to us to serve them in ways that are faster, sharper and leaner without compromising excellence. We developed a first-of-its kind legal project management department, which uses technology, people and processes to drive efficiency and deliver value for our clients.

We are innovators. Dechert ranked #7 in the Financial Times’ Top North American Innovative Law Firms. Financial Times also recognizes us among the Top European Innovative Law Firms and highly commends World Compass, our marketing compliance service, which offers investment firms advice in more than 100 jurisdictions.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

On Saturday, 16 January 2016, the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) submitted a report to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) certifying that Iran has satisfied its obligations under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the agreement reached in July 2015 among Iran, the United States, China, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany and France.1As a result, 16 January 2016 is “Implementation Day” under the JCPOA, triggering the easing of certain sanctions against Iran by the United States, European Union and United Nations Security Council.The sanctions relief creates a significant asymmetry between U.S. and non-U.S. persons in dealings with Iran: U.S. sanctions continue to prohibit U.S. nationals and companies from most Iranian activities (though non-U.S. subsidiaries of U.S. companies now are authorized to engage in most activities with Iran), while EU (and other non-U.S.) persons are now affected only by vastly reduced prohibitions and are largely (but not entirely) free from the threat of “secondary” U.S. sanctions.Below we summarize the timing and scope of the sanctions relief which now comes into effect. We will publish more detailed guidance in the coming days.

On Saturday, 16 January 2016, the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) submitted a report to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) certifying that Iran has satisfied its obligations under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the agreement reached in July 2015 among Iran, the United States, China, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany and France.1As a result, 16 January 2016 is “Implementation Day” under the JCPOA, triggering the easing of certain sanctions against Iran by the United States, European Union and United Nations Security Council.The sanctions relief creates a significant asymmetry between U.S. and non-U.S. persons in dealings with Iran: U.S. sanctions continue to prohibit U.S. nationals and companies from most Iranian activities (though non-U.S. subsidiaries of U.S. companies now are authorized to engage in most activities with Iran), while EU (and other non-U.S.) persons are now affected only by vastly reduced prohibitions and are largely (but not entirely) free from the threat of “secondary” U.S. sanctions.Below we summarize the timing and scope of the sanctions relief which now comes into effect. We will publish more detailed guidance in the coming days.

Implementation Day: Iran Sanctions Eased Today

United States

QEP Resources, Inc. operates as an independent natural gas, oil exploration, and production company. The Company focused in the Rocky Mountain and Midcontinent regions of the United States. QEP also gathers, compresses, treats, and processes natural gas.

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Qep Resources (QEP US)

AmpGFX - Oil Leaves a Slippery Slick for Global Markets

In stepping back for a moment to assess what exactly is hurting global investor confidence, it is not as easy as it seems to put a finger on the...

Greg Gibbs

Does Fixed Income Have a Future?

With bond yields at floor levels with limited policy options to sustain zero or negative interest rates what is the future for fixed income? Is...

ClearMacro

'Should You Trust the Bounce? '

After the recent global sell off across risk assets, we ask 'is there value from a tactical allocation perspective? ClearMacro's virtual tactician...

ClearMacro

Confidence in Fed Hikes Waning

S interest rates have fallen significantly this year (-36bp) reducing the USD yield advantage. This has been matched by the GBP and CAD, but AUD...

Greg Gibbs

Implementation Day: Iran Sanctions Eased Today

On Saturday, 16 January 2016, the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) submitted a report to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC)...

Dechert LLP

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