Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Supun Walpola

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

In our previous report, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/a-reality-check-for-money-forward-3994-jp-key-takeaways-from-our-recent-visit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:28861" rel="noopener">A Reality Check for Money Forward (3994 JP): Key Takeaways from Our Recent Visit</a>, we suggested that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/money-forward-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25919:1" rel="noopener">Money Forward (3994 JP)</a> (MF)’s FY11/19E revenue guidance (+55%-65% YoY growth) and medium-term profit targets (positive EBITDA by FY11/21E) are slightly aggressive and needs to be toned down. MF’s share price, which was trading at around ¥4,400 at that time (March 2019), has fallen to around ¥3,500, reinforcing our bearish view.MF reported its 1H FY11/19E financial results last week. MF’s revenue was up 53% YoY in 1H FY11/19, slightly below the bottom end of the guidance, and EBITDA worsened to ¥1,466m in 1H FY11/19 compared to ¥160m in 1H FY11/19.This was the company’s first financial results briefing after deploying a new price plan for its cloud-based enterprise SaaS business, MF Cloud, in May 2019. In this note, we take a closer look at the new price plan and what it means for MF going forward.

In our previous report, A Reality Check for Money Forward (3994 JP): Key Takeaways from Our Recent Visit, we suggested that Money Forward (3994 JP) (MF)’s FY11/19E revenue guidance (+55%-65% YoY growth) and medium-term profit targets (positive EBITDA by FY11/21E) are slightly aggressive and needs to be toned down. MF’s share price, which was trading at around ¥4,400 at that time (March 2019), has fallen to around ¥3,500, reinforcing our bearish view.MF reported its 1H FY11/19E financial results last week. MF’s revenue was up 53% YoY in 1H FY11/19, slightly below the bottom end of the guidance, and EBITDA worsened to ¥1,466m in 1H FY11/19 compared to ¥160m in 1H FY11/19.This was the company’s first financial results briefing after deploying a new price plan for its cloud-based enterprise SaaS business, MF Cloud, in May 2019. In this note, we take a closer look at the new price plan and what it means for MF going forward.

Money Forward’s New Pricing Plan Could Be Its First Step in the Path to Profitability

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>We believe the intraday low of 2,532.69 made by the S&amp;P 500 on 2/9/18 marked an important short-term bottom within the long-term advance. We continue to see this low and  the 200-day moving average as critical support levels should there be a retest. After a quick recovery from these lows, the S&amp;P 500 has paused near the 50-day moving average, a logical resting area as the market determines its next move. </li><li>In today’s report we highlight attractive and actionable groups within Technology, all relating to software and the attractiveness of dependable recurring revenues: Software; Enterprise Applications, E-Commerce, Education, and Customer Relationship Mgt. (CRM).</li></ul>

We believe the intraday low of 2,532.69 made by the S&amp;P 500 on 2/9/18 marked an important short-term bottom within the long-term advance. We continue to see this low and  the 200-day moving average as critical support levels should there be a retest. After a quick recovery from these lows, the S&amp;P 500 has paused near the 50-day moving average, a logical resting area as the market determines its next move. In today’s report we highlight attractive and actionable groups within Technology, all relating to software and the attractiveness of dependable recurring revenues: Software; Enterprise Applications, E-Commerce, Education, and Customer Relationship Mgt. (CRM).

United States

Q2 Holdings Inc is a provider of secure, cloud-based virtual banking solutions. The Company enables regional and community financial institutions, or RCFIs, to deliver a suite of integrated virtual banking services.

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Q2 Holdings Inc (QTWO US)

Money Forward’s New Pricing Plan Could Be Its First Step in the Path to Profitability

In our previous report, A Reality Check for Money Forward (3994 JP): Key Takeaways from Our Recent Visit, we suggested that Money Forward (3994 JP)...

Supun Walpola

U.S. Equity Strategy

We believe the intraday low of 2,532.69 made by the S&P 500 on 2/9/18 marked an important short-term bottom within the long-term advance. We...

Vermilion Research

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