Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, 200, and 500 Indices in the December 2022 Rebalance.</li>
<li>Based on the latest data, I expect one ADD/DEL for SENSEX, one ADD/DEL for BSE 100, and 3 ADDs/DELs for BSE 200. </li>
<li>The potential ADDs/DELs for SENSEX could see index flows of US$100mn or more but the other index changes are both small in size and volume impact (days-to-trade).</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, 200, and 500 Indices in the December 2022 Rebalance.
Based on the latest data, I expect one ADD/DEL for SENSEX, one ADD/DEL for BSE 100, and 3 ADDs/DELs for BSE 200. 
The potential ADDs/DELs for SENSEX could see index flows of US$100mn or more but the other index changes are both small in size and volume impact (days-to-trade).


S&P BSE Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 2022: Multiple Adani Names with F&O Question Marks

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nirmal Bang

Nirmal Bang

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

A Relationship Beyond Broking

Nirmal Bang, one of the leading stock broking companies in India, caters to retail and institutional clients by offering them a range of financial products and services, including equities, derivatives, commodities, currency derivatives, mutual funds, IPOs, insurance, depository services and PMS.

Nirmal Bang is drawn from a diversity of professional backgrounds, and blend of experience, skill and dedication is shared with its clients. Nirmal Bang emphasizes adequate, thorough research local and world-wide developments, balancing these with the astute discovery of intrinsic values, synergies and growth. The aim is simply to help the investors to maximize their returns.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>PVR and Inox Leisure (INOL) stock prices were down by ~3% and ~4%, respectively in 1QFY23, but outperformed the Nifty Media index (down 21%).</li><li>They also outperformed the NSE Small Cap 100 index (down 19%). This is after a stellar 4QFY22 when each of them delivered ~50% return.</li><li>1QFY23 saw positive sentiments due to strong box office collections (especially from regional movies), addition of new screens and approval of merger (PVR-INOX merger). of the 2 players by SEBI and the two stock exchanges – NSE &amp; BSE – without any objections raised thus far from CCI.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PVR and Inox Leisure (INOL) stock prices were down by ~3% and ~4%, respectively in 1QFY23, but outperformed the Nifty Media index (down 21%).They also outperformed the NSE Small Cap 100 index (down 19%). This is after a stellar 4QFY22 when each of them delivered ~50% return.1QFY23 saw positive sentiments due to strong box office collections (especially from regional movies), addition of new screens and approval of merger (PVR-INOX merger). of the 2 players by SEBI and the two stock exchanges – NSE &amp; BSE – without any objections raised thus far from CCI.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Film Exhibition Sector - 1QFY23: All Set to Break Pre-COVID Levels

<ul><li>PVR and Inox Leisure (INOL) stock prices appreciated by 48% and 50%, respectively in 4QFY22, owing to quick opening up after the third covid wave, better-than-expected response to content, and proposed merger of these two players.</li><li>The merger would create a formidable player in the Indian Film Exhibition space with significant bargaining power vis-à-vis the ecosystem stakeholders (PVR-INOX merger)</li><li>Emergence of the Omicron variant affected the performance in the first one &amp; half months of 4QFY22, with film releases getting postponed and fresh restrictions being put up by various states on cinema operations.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PVR and Inox Leisure (INOL) stock prices appreciated by 48% and 50%, respectively in 4QFY22, owing to quick opening up after the third covid wave, better-than-expected response to content, and proposed merger of these two players.The merger would create a formidable player in the Indian Film Exhibition space with significant bargaining power vis-à-vis the ecosystem stakeholders (PVR-INOX merger)Emergence of the Omicron variant affected the performance in the first one &amp; half months of 4QFY22, with film releases getting postponed and fresh restrictions being put up by various states on cinema operations.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Film Exhibition Sector: Good Show After an Initial Blip; Strong Recovery

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pvr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10144:1" rel="noopener">PVR Ltd (PVRL IN)</a> 's December performance on ATP and SHP was very encouraging. If the trend sustains we believe the earnings recovery would be much faster than anticipated. </li>
<li>New trends in content consumption, strong content pipeline and truce with OTT players make a case for a solid recovery for the Industry.</li>
<li>PVR has historically traded at an average of 11.4x EV/EBITDA. Based on our current estimates and conservative 10.5x multiple, there is a return potential of &gt;20% from these levels.</li>
</ul>



PVR Ltd (PVRL IN) 's December performance on ATP and SHP was very encouraging. If the trend sustains we believe the earnings recovery would be much faster than anticipated. 
New trends in content consumption, strong content pipeline and truce with OTT players make a case for a solid recovery for the Industry.
PVR has historically traded at an average of 11.4x EV/EBITDA. Based on our current estimates and conservative 10.5x multiple, there is a return potential of &gt;20% from these levels.


PVR (PVRL IN) | Q3 | The "Pricy" Show Has Begun

<h3>About The Narrative</h3>
Earnings conference calls are important sources that aid us in the identification of potential catalysts and drivers of stock returns. Every quarter we go through these transcripts and connect them with primary research with the objective of assessing on-ground reality against management commentary. 
The edition focuses on key quotes from the earnings transcripts of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asian-paints-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6354:1" rel="noopener">Asian Paints (APNT IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pvr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10144:1" rel="noopener">PVR Ltd (PVRL IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reliance-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:198:1" rel="noopener">Reliance Industries (RIL IN)</a> (Retail) / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/titan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12630:1" rel="noopener">Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/page-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4940:1" rel="noopener">Page Industries (PAG IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/interglobe-aviation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24877:1" rel="noopener">InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN)</a> 
We have separated the quotes to highlight Business Environment &amp; Key Drivers, Pricing and Premiumisation, Competition, Margins &amp; Commodity Inflation and Outlook.

About The Narrative
Earnings conference calls are important sources that aid us in the identification of potential catalysts and drivers of stock returns. Every quarter we go through these transcripts and connect them with primary research with the objective of assessing on-ground reality against management commentary. 
The edition focuses on key quotes from the earnings transcripts of Asian Paints (APNT IN) / PVR Ltd (PVRL IN) / Reliance Industries (RIL IN) (Retail) / Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN) / Page Industries (PAG IN) / InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) 
We have separated the quotes to highlight Business Environment &amp; Key Drivers, Pricing and Premiumisation, Competition, Margins &amp; Commodity Inflation and Outlook.

The Narrative | Q2 FY22 | India Consumer - Asian Paints, PVR, Reliance Retail, Titan, Page, Indigo

India

PVR INOX Limited operates cinemas. The Company owns and manages multiplex movie theaters.

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Pvr Inox (PVRINOX IN)

S&P BSE Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 2022: Multiple Adani Names with F&O Question Marks

Multiple ADANI names could be involved in index changes. However, there are several question marks due to lack of derivative market linkage for...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Film Exhibition Sector - 1QFY23: All Set to Break Pre-COVID Levels

PVR and Inox Leisure (INOL) stock prices were down by ~3% and ~4%, respectively in 1QFY23, but outperformed the Nifty Media index (down 21%).

Nirmal Bang

Film Exhibition Sector: Good Show After an Initial Blip; Strong Recovery

PVR and Inox Leisure (INOL) stock prices appreciated by 48% and 50%, respectively in 4QFY22, owing to quick opening up after the third covid wave...

Nirmal Bang

PVR (PVRL IN) | Q3 | The "Pricy" Show Has Begun

PVR's commentary on ATP and SHP is very encouraging. New trends in content consumption, strong content pipeline and truce with OTT players make a...

Pranav Bhavsar

The Narrative | Q2 FY22 | India Consumer - Asian Paints, PVR, Reliance Retail, Titan, Page, Indigo

The edition focuses on key quotes from the earnings transcripts of Asian Paints / PVR Ltd / Reliance Retail / Titan / Page Industries /Indigo

Pranav Bhavsar

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