Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector, Small Cap Consumer Research

Small Cap Consumer Research

Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector

Small Cap Consumer Research, LLC is a leading company-sponsored equity research provider focusing on the consumer sector (apparel, brand licensing and specialty retailing segments).

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We are cutting our projections and price target for Express, but maintaining our Buy rating after the company missed 3Q projections and guided to a materially weaker than expected 4Q.</li><li>Further, with inventories heavier than expected ahead of the Holiday season (up 14% YoY, or flat if Bonobos is excluded) we expect the season to remain aggressively promotional and, in the near term, offset any gains from cost savings and other S,G&A reductions (and probably spill over into Q1FY24).</li><li>Our new price target of $20 (down from $40) translates to 8.2X our new, materially lowered FY24 EBITDA projection.</li></ul>

We are cutting our projections and price target for Express, but maintaining our Buy rating after the company missed 3Q projections and guided to a materially weaker than expected 4Q.Further, with inventories heavier than expected ahead of the Holiday season (up 14% YoY, or flat if Bonobos is excluded) we expect the season to remain aggressively promotional and, in the near term, offset any gains from cost savings and other S,G&A reductions (and probably spill over into Q1FY24).Our new price target of $20 (down from $40) translates to 8.2X our new, materially lowered FY24 EBITDA projection.

EXPR: 3Q Review; Cleaning Up the Mess; Reiterate Buy, Lowering PT to $20

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and price target for Express after visiting stores in Long Island and Connecticut.</li><li>We believe, after a tough Xmas last year, Express offerings are materially more versatile, priced better and more inline with the split between fashion and basics to create multiple exciting looks and outfits.</li><li>As such, we reiterate our Buy rating and price target for EXPR.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and price target for Express after visiting stores in Long Island and Connecticut.We believe, after a tough Xmas last year, Express offerings are materially more versatile, priced better and more inline with the split between fashion and basics to create multiple exciting looks and outfits.As such, we reiterate our Buy rating and price target for EXPR.

EXPR: Snapping the Store: Remedying Issues of Xmas Past; Reiterate Buy, $40 PT

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating, $40 price target and projections for Express with the company announcing 3QFY23 (October) results before the open on Thursday.</li><li>With a new Chief Executive Officer and Head Merchant and the Chief Financial Officer recently resigning for another opportunity, the 3Q call will be the first pronouncements from new management.</li><li>As such, and with operating comparisons continuing to ease and the product mix (especially in women's) improving, we reiterate our Buy rating and pricetarget for EXPR.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $40 price target and projections for Express with the company announcing 3QFY23 (October) results before the open on Thursday.With a new Chief Executive Officer and Head Merchant and the Chief Financial Officer recently resigning for another opportunity, the 3Q call will be the first pronouncements from new management.As such, and with operating comparisons continuing to ease and the product mix (especially in women's) improving, we reiterate our Buy rating and pricetarget for EXPR.

EXPR; 3Q Preview: New Management Set to Introduce Themselves; Reiterate Buy, PT

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating and $32.50 price target for Guess?, after the company reported mixed 3QFY24 (October) results, with EBITDA handily beating Street consensus, but EPS a miss, driven by a higher than expected tax rate and slightly weaker top line results, as Europe saw slowing traffic and the domestic stores remain negative.</li><li>Jeans), the recapture of the company's license for domestic outerwear and a normalization of the expense base.</li><li>As such, we are reiterating our Buy rating and $32.50 price target on GES, which now translates to 6.5X our new FY25 EBITDA.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $32.50 price target for Guess?, after the company reported mixed 3QFY24 (October) results, with EBITDA handily beating Street consensus, but EPS a miss, driven by a higher than expected tax rate and slightly weaker top line results, as Europe saw slowing traffic and the domestic stores remain negative.Jeans), the recapture of the company's license for domestic outerwear and a normalization of the expense base.As such, we are reiterating our Buy rating and $32.50 price target on GES, which now translates to 6.5X our new FY25 EBITDA.

GES: 3Q Review: Guess Goes Conservative for 4Q; Reiterate Buy, $32.50 Pt

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

We are beginning to see early signs of rotations back into more risk-on areas of the equity market -- a bullish sign for the broad market. Short-term outperformance and constructive consolidation/bottoming patterns are evident within biotech (IBB, XBI), small- and micro-caps (IWM, IWC), and emerging markets (EEM). This only adds to our positive outlook for the weeks and months ahead; continue to buy pullbacks.

We are beginning to see early signs of rotations back into more risk-on areas of the equity market -- a bullish sign for the broad market. Short-term outperformance and constructive consolidation/bottoming patterns are evident within biotech (IBB, XBI), small- and micro-caps (IWM, IWC), and emerging markets (EEM). This only adds to our positive outlook for the weeks and months ahead; continue to buy pullbacks.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Risk-On Rotations Vs. Weaker Seasonality; Russell 2000, Biotech, EM Improving

United States

PVH Corp. designs, sources, manufactures, and markets men's, women's, and children's apparel and footwear.  The Company markets its products at a wholesale level through department store chains and directly to consumers through retail stores. PVH Corp offers attire that includes dress shirts, sportswear, neckwear, and footwear.

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Pvh Corp (PVH US)

EXPR: 3Q Review; Cleaning Up the Mess; Reiterate Buy, Lowering PT to $20

We are cutting our projections and price target for Express, but maintaining our Buy rating after the company missed 3Q projections and guided to...

Small Cap Consumer Research

EXPR: Snapping the Store: Remedying Issues of Xmas Past; Reiterate Buy, $40 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and price target for Express after visiting stores in Long Island and Connecticut. We believe,...

Small Cap Consumer Research

EXPR; 3Q Preview: New Management Set to Introduce Themselves; Reiterate Buy, PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $40 price target and projections for Express with the company announcing 3QFY23 (October) results before the...

Small Cap Consumer Research

GES: 3Q Review: Guess Goes Conservative for 4Q; Reiterate Buy, $32.50 Pt

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $32.50 price target for Guess?, after the company reported mixed 3QFY24 (October) results, with EBITDA...

Small Cap Consumer Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Risk-On Rotations Vs. Weaker Seasonality; Russell 2000, Biotech, EM Improving

We are seeing signs of rotations back into more risk-on areas of the equity market -- a bullish sign for the broad market. Add to biotech, small-...

Vermilion Research

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