Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

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Equity Bottom-Up

Barring any glaring missteps, we think HDFC will continue to generate high returns on equity, or ROE, and is favourably positioned to leverage India's strong long-term economic growth prospects.Despite remarkable loan growth, averaging about 31% annually for the past 10 years, we like that HDFC has managed to expand its deposit base at nearly the same clip (of 29%), maintaining a low cost of funds and upholding its profitability.Indeed, with its deposit/loans ratio at about 1.2 times, the bank has been able to produce substantial net interest margins of 4.7% on average during the past decade, and 3.6% on a risk-adjusted basis, much higher than any of its peers.We also believe HDFC has good cost-control practices, with non-interest expenses consistently below 55% of revenue, which means more money flows to its bottom line.As the bank expands its reach via opening more branches in both urban and rural areas, scale advantages will begin kicking in, and overheads will stabilise at lower cost/income levels than 50% going forward.Analyst: Suruchi JainFull report below the fold...

Barring any glaring missteps, we think HDFC will continue to generate high returns on equity, or ROE, and is favourably positioned to leverage India's strong long-term economic growth prospects.Despite remarkable loan growth, averaging about 31% annually for the past 10 years, we like that HDFC has managed to expand its deposit base at nearly the same clip (of 29%), maintaining a low cost of funds and upholding its profitability.Indeed, with its deposit/loans ratio at about 1.2 times, the bank has been able to produce substantial net interest margins of 4.7% on average during the past decade, and 3.6% on a risk-adjusted basis, much higher than any of its peers.We also believe HDFC has good cost-control practices, with non-interest expenses consistently below 55% of revenue, which means more money flows to its bottom line.As the bank expands its reach via opening more branches in both urban and rural areas, scale advantages will begin kicking in, and overheads will stabilise at lower cost/income levels than 50% going forward.Analyst: Suruchi JainFull report below the fold...

HDFC Bank's narrow moat remains intact despite new bank entrants

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul><li>Can any mainstream bank be immune from an economic cycle?</li><li>Is it possible for slowing economic growth, a weakening currency, infrastructure and political bottlenecks to affect all but a single bank in the same country?</li><li>Is there any precedence in Asia since 1997 or 2008, for a sharply lower rate of GDP growth to be all but invisible to bank credit and profit metrics?</li></ul>HDFC Bank comes to mind. But our feeling is that this bank, nor any other, can truly be immune.

Can any mainstream bank be immune from an economic cycle?Is it possible for slowing economic growth, a weakening currency, infrastructure and political bottlenecks to affect all but a single bank in the same country?Is there any precedence in Asia since 1997 or 2008, for a sharply lower rate of GDP growth to be all but invisible to bank credit and profit metrics?HDFC Bank comes to mind. But our feeling is that this bank, nor any other, can truly be immune.

We all know of the abysmal condition of India&rsquo;s state banks. Bank of India reports a harrowing rise in its NPLs. Punjab National, Canara, Central Bank of India, Bank of Baroda and Union Bank of India are all similarly worrying.These six banks are not inconsequential; they are the six most prolific banks in India, after the infamous State Bank of India.What is happening in India is not limited to the state banks, nor is this a benign NPL cycle. It is severe and likely to persist for some time....more below the fold.

We all know of the abysmal condition of India&rsquo;s state banks. Bank of India reports a harrowing rise in its NPLs. Punjab National, Canara, Central Bank of India, Bank of Baroda and Union Bank of India are all similarly worrying.These six banks are not inconsequential; they are the six most prolific banks in India, after the infamous State Bank of India.What is happening in India is not limited to the state banks, nor is this a benign NPL cycle. It is severe and likely to persist for some time....more below the fold.

Poor Credit Metrics Not Limited to State Banks in India

Ex-Buyside Principal, now doing Independent Secondary Research on Indian Equities

Pawan Sachdeva

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

This work has been done to look at:<ol><li>How finances of state of Karnataka have moved over last decade ?</li><li>Detailed Break Up of Revenue, Expenditure, Capital Expenditure and subsidies  </li><li>Key Budget Comments on Drinking Water, Energy etc.</li></ol>Who will have have interest in reading this presentation<ul><li>Some one who follows Indian Economy</li><li>Some one looking at Karnataka State as “area of operation” in any field.</li></ul>

This work has been done to look at:How finances of state of Karnataka have moved over last decade ?Detailed Break Up of Revenue, Expenditure, Capital Expenditure and subsidies  Key Budget Comments on Drinking Water, Energy etc.Who will have have interest in reading this presentationSome one who follows Indian EconomySome one looking at Karnataka State as “area of operation” in any field.

A close look at the Financials and Budget of Karnataka State

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

*Poor 2Q21 Result: DBS Group Holdings (DBS.SP) [DBS] reported 2Q21 results of SGD 1.7 bn, decreasing SGD 304  mn (15.1%) on a linked quarter basis. The weaker results were driven primarily by an overall revenue decline, a loan provision increase, and a higher tax rate;*Watch Your Credit: We struggle continue to believe that DBS’ due diligence had actually caught all of LVB’s risk (see discussion below), and remain unconvinced that the moratorium exits are anything more than additional reliance on government schemes and relief programs. DBS has disclosed absolutely nothing about Shenzhen Rural Commercial Bank’s (SRCB) fundamentals. By our calculation, and given the NCOs of SGD 69 mn, we find that net new NPLs have re-accelerated – up SGD 266 mn or increasing 18.0% annualized versus SGD 85 mn or 5.6% in 1Q21. We feel that reserves should be shored up in the neighborhood of SGD 2.5bn – amounting now to about two quarters of operating results; and *Deal Distractions Mount:  While SRCB dos not appear to be riddled with problems the way LVB is, no doubt there will be issues to contend with.  DBS apparently isn’t done with its shopping spree, being in the running for parts of Citigroup's (C.US) consumer business in Asia. Frankly, DBS needs to focus on improving its own legacy issues before it starts both taking on those of other financial institutions.

*Poor 2Q21 Result: DBS Group Holdings (DBS.SP) [DBS] reported 2Q21 results of SGD 1.7 bn, decreasing SGD 304  mn (15.1%) on a linked quarter basis. The weaker results were driven primarily by an overall revenue decline, a loan provision increase, and a higher tax rate;*Watch Your Credit: We struggle continue to believe that DBS’ due diligence had actually caught all of LVB’s risk (see discussion below), and remain unconvinced that the moratorium exits are anything more than additional reliance on government schemes and relief programs. DBS has disclosed absolutely nothing about Shenzhen Rural Commercial Bank’s (SRCB) fundamentals. By our calculation, and given the NCOs of SGD 69 mn, we find that net new NPLs have re-accelerated – up SGD 266 mn or increasing 18.0% annualized versus SGD 85 mn or 5.6% in 1Q21. We feel that reserves should be shored up in the neighborhood of SGD 2.5bn – amounting now to about two quarters of operating results; and *Deal Distractions Mount:  While SRCB dos not appear to be riddled with problems the way LVB is, no doubt there will be issues to contend with.  DBS apparently isn’t done with its shopping spree, being in the running for parts of Citigroup's (C.US) consumer business in Asia. Frankly, DBS needs to focus on improving its own legacy issues before it starts both taking on those of other financial institutions.

India

Punjab National Bank provides financial services such as corporate and personal banking, industrial finance, agricultural finance, financing of trade and international banking. The Company provides services to domestic conglomerates, medium and small industrial units, exporters, non-resident Indians and multinational companies.

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Punjab National Bank (PNB IN)

HDFC Bank's narrow moat remains intact despite new bank entrants

Barring any glaring missteps, we think HDFC will continue to generate high returns on equity, or ROE, and is favourably positioned to leverage...

Morningstar, Inc.

Is HDFC Bank Immune ?

Can any mainstream bank be immune from an economic cycle? Is it possible for slowing economic growth, a weakening currency, infrastructure and...

Daniel Tabbush

Poor Credit Metrics Not Limited to State Banks in India

We all know of the abysmal condition of India’s state banks. Bank of India reports a harrowing rise in its NPLs. Punjab National, Canara, Central...

Daniel Tabbush

A close look at the Financials and Budget of Karnataka State

This work has been done to look at: How finances of state of Karnataka have moved over last decade ? Detailed Break Up of Revenue, Expenditure,...

Pawan Sachdeva

DBS Group Holdings – Bad Print

DBS: DBS QOQ 2Q21 results declined 15.1% due to poor revenues and higher provisions. We worry that DBS has not caught the LVB risk, net new NPLs re...

Thomas J. Monaco

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