Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>2025 guidance – lower tone: The company lowered its Dubai crude oil price assumption to USD65-75/barrel (from USD70- 80 previously) and raised its unit costs to the upper range of USD30/boe (from USD29-30/boe previously) due to persistently high DD&amp;A expenses, in order to maintain gas production volumes for the G1/61 and G2/61 projects.</li><li>Meanwhile, the sales volume and gas price assumptions remain relatively unchanged, supporting our view that the unit margin and profit will trend downward in 2025-27E.</li><li>We maintain our 12M fair value (FV) at Bt115.50 (based on a required return of 14.9%), but we upgrade our rating to Neutral (previously Underperform) thanks to a more positive view on the current valuation (providing more upside gain on price weakness) alongside neutral tactical risks (previously limited upside risk).</li></ul>

2025 guidance – lower tone: The company lowered its Dubai crude oil price assumption to USD65-75/barrel (from USD70- 80 previously) and raised its unit costs to the upper range of USD30/boe (from USD29-30/boe previously) due to persistently high DD&amp;A expenses, in order to maintain gas production volumes for the G1/61 and G2/61 projects.Meanwhile, the sales volume and gas price assumptions remain relatively unchanged, supporting our view that the unit margin and profit will trend downward in 2025-27E.We maintain our 12M fair value (FV) at Bt115.50 (based on a required return of 14.9%), but we upgrade our rating to Neutral (previously Underperform) thanks to a more positive view on the current valuation (providing more upside gain on price weakness) alongside neutral tactical risks (previously limited upside risk).

PTT Exploration and Production - Lackluster 1Q25 Earnings; Lower Tone for 2025 Guidance

PTT Exploration & Production P / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We have revised down our 2025-27E core profit forecasts by 3-6% following a downward revision of our Dubai crude oil price assumptions, reflecting the potential negative impact of the trade war on oil demand and prices.</li><li>Core profit in 1Q25E is expected to have declined YoY and QoQ, with unit margins projected to trend downward in 2Q (due to a sharp drop in oil prices) and 4Q (owing to the lagging effect on gas prices).</li><li>We expect 2-year core EPS (2025-27E) to post a -4.2% CAGR.</li></ul>

We have revised down our 2025-27E core profit forecasts by 3-6% following a downward revision of our Dubai crude oil price assumptions, reflecting the potential negative impact of the trade war on oil demand and prices.Core profit in 1Q25E is expected to have declined YoY and QoQ, with unit margins projected to trend downward in 2Q (due to a sharp drop in oil prices) and 4Q (owing to the lagging effect on gas prices).We expect 2-year core EPS (2025-27E) to post a -4.2% CAGR.

Ptt Exploration and Production - Expect Lackluster 1Q25E Profit; Weak Momentum in 2025-27E

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>US stock markets rebounded, which in turn bolstered Asian bourses, driven by optimism over potential improvements in US-China trade negotiations and speculation surrounding DELTA’s 1Q25 earnings.</li><li>Market participants also remained cautious ahead of the upcoming MPC meeting results.</li><li>Consequently, the SET Index posted a notable gain, supported by strong buying in blue-chip stocks — particularly DELTA — pushing the index up 0.7% from the previous week, despite foreign investors being net sellers on four out of five trading days.</li></ul>

US stock markets rebounded, which in turn bolstered Asian bourses, driven by optimism over potential improvements in US-China trade negotiations and speculation surrounding DELTA’s 1Q25 earnings.Market participants also remained cautious ahead of the upcoming MPC meeting results.Consequently, the SET Index posted a notable gain, supported by strong buying in blue-chip stocks — particularly DELTA — pushing the index up 0.7% from the previous week, despite foreign investors being net sellers on four out of five trading days.

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Apr 25th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD1.9bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Delta Electronics, Krung Thai Bank, Ptt E&amp;P, Kasikornbank, Scc, Gulf Energy Development.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Apr 25th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD1.9bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Delta Electronics, Krung Thai Bank, Ptt E&amp;P, Kasikornbank, Scc, Gulf Energy Development.


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Apr 25th): Delta Electronics, Krung Thai Bank, Ptt E&P, Kasikornbank

<ul><li>We expect 4Q24E and 2024E core profit and net profit to be unremarkable, pressured by a declining margin per unit.</li><li>We maintain our view that 2-year core EPS (2025-26E) will contract at an average of a -8% CAGR, underperforming the sector due to a downward trend in the margin per unit and slower growth in petroleum sales volume.</li><li>We maintain our Neutral rating and the fair value (FV) of Bt139.89, reflecting the weak oil market amid the oversupply trend and demand risks stemming from the US-China trade war, as well as the declining trend for the company’s 2025-26E earnings.</li></ul>

We expect 4Q24E and 2024E core profit and net profit to be unremarkable, pressured by a declining margin per unit.We maintain our view that 2-year core EPS (2025-26E) will contract at an average of a -8% CAGR, underperforming the sector due to a downward trend in the margin per unit and slower growth in petroleum sales volume.We maintain our Neutral rating and the fair value (FV) of Bt139.89, reflecting the weak oil market amid the oversupply trend and demand risks stemming from the US-China trade war, as well as the declining trend for the company’s 2025-26E earnings.

PTT Exploration and Production - Expect Unremarkable 4Q24E and 2024E Earnings

Thailand

PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited explores for crude oil and natural gas, develops fields for production, and produces oil and natural gas. The Company is a subsidiary of the Petroleum Authority of Thailand.

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PTT E&P (PTTEP TB)

PTT Exploration and Production - Lackluster 1Q25 Earnings; Lower Tone for 2025 Guidance

The company lowered its Dubai crude oil price assumption to USD65-75/barrel (from USD70- 80 previously) and raised its unit costs to the upper...

Krungthai XSpring

Ptt Exploration and Production - Expect Lackluster 1Q25E Profit; Weak Momentum in 2025-27E

Core profit in 1Q25E is expected to have declined YoY and QoQ, with unit margins projected to trend downward in 2Q (due to a sharp drop in oil prices)

Krungthai XSpring

Technical Analysis - APRIL 28, 2025

US stock markets rebounded, which in turn bolstered Asian bourses, driven by optimism over potential improvements in US-China trade negotiations...

Krungthai XSpring

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Apr 25th): Delta Electronics, Krung Thai Bank, Ptt E&P, Kasikornbank

We analyzed SET short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Delta Electronics, Krung Thai Bank, Ptt E&P,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

PTT Exploration and Production - Expect Unremarkable 4Q24E and 2024E Earnings

We maintain our Neutral rating and the fair value (FV) of Bt139.89, reflecting the weak oil market amid the oversupply trend and demand risks...

Krungthai XSpring

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