Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

We initiate coverage of PTTEP with a BUY rating, based on a 2020E target price of Bt142, derived from a discounted cash flow valuation (WACC of 10% and TG of 2%). Our valuation implies 11.3x PE’20, which is in line with the Thai Energy Sector.The story:<ul>
<li>Leading petroleum exploration and production business in Thailand</li>
<li>Expect sales volume to increase by 6% CAGR in 2021-24</li>
<li>Solid financial position from which to expand regional and overseas investments</li>
<li>Attractive dividend yield of 4-5%</li>
</ul>Risks: <ul>
<li>Foreign exchange rate fluctuation</li>
<li>Oil price fluctuation</li>
<li>Decline in proven reserves of oil and gas</li>
</ul>

We initiate coverage of PTTEP with a BUY rating, based on a 2020E target price of Bt142, derived from a discounted cash flow valuation (WACC of 10% and TG of 2%). Our valuation implies 11.3x PE’20, which is in line with the Thai Energy Sector.The story:
Leading petroleum exploration and production business in Thailand
Expect sales volume to increase by 6% CAGR in 2021-24
Solid financial position from which to expand regional and overseas investments
Attractive dividend yield of 4-5%
Risks: 
Foreign exchange rate fluctuation
Oil price fluctuation
Decline in proven reserves of oil and gas


PTTEP: Thai E&P Leader with Promising Growth Outlook

Yesterday analysts meeting came out with a positive tone. We maintain our BUY rating and a target price of Bt33 based on SOTP, implying to 1xPBV’20E.Key takeaway:<ul>
<li>Expect 4Q19 earnings to grow YoY and QoQ backed by a recovery in refinery business.</li>
<li>Trimmed 2019E earnings forecast by 33% to factor in higher stock loss than expectation.</li>
<li>We forecast 2020E earnings to grow 87%YoY and maintain our positive view toward its 2019-2021 earnings backed by better demand outlook derived from IMO regulation applied in Jan 2020 and 17% capacity expansion by 2021.</li>
</ul>Upside risk: An IPO of Saudi Aramco in December might have positive sentiment toward crude price which could have low pressure to its stock loss.Background: Established in 1940, Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited and its subsidiaries ‘ operations include refinery, oil trading, petroleum product marketing and renewable energy businesses. With a capacity of 120,000 barrels per day, Bangchak produces and distributes its products through more than 1,000 service stations nationwide. It also plans to expand the scope of its business to cover food and convenience stores and novel product businesses and to seek investment opportunities in bio-based products and natural resource businesses.

Yesterday analysts meeting came out with a positive tone. We maintain our BUY rating and a target price of Bt33 based on SOTP, implying to 1xPBV’20E.Key takeaway:
Expect 4Q19 earnings to grow YoY and QoQ backed by a recovery in refinery business.
Trimmed 2019E earnings forecast by 33% to factor in higher stock loss than expectation.
We forecast 2020E earnings to grow 87%YoY and maintain our positive view toward its 2019-2021 earnings backed by better demand outlook derived from IMO regulation applied in Jan 2020 and 17% capacity expansion by 2021.
Upside risk: An IPO of Saudi Aramco in December might have positive sentiment toward crude price which could have low pressure to its stock loss.Background: Established in 1940, Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited and its subsidiaries ‘ operations include refinery, oil trading, petroleum product marketing and renewable energy businesses. With a capacity of 120,000 barrels per day, Bangchak produces and distributes its products through more than 1,000 service stations nationwide. It also plans to expand the scope of its business to cover food and convenience stores and novel product businesses and to seek investment opportunities in bio-based products and natural resource businesses.

BCP: Better Refinery Outlook in 4Q19 and Beyond

Thailand

PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited explores for crude oil and natural gas, develops fields for production, and produces oil and natural gas. The Company is a subsidiary of the Petroleum Authority of Thailand.

PTT Exploration & Production P (PTTEP-R TB)

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PTT Exploration & Production P (PTTEP-R TB)

PTTEP: Thai E&P Leader with Promising Growth Outlook

We initiate coverage of PTTEP with a BUY rating, based on a 2020E target price of Bt142, derived from a discounted cash flow valuation (WACC of 10%...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

BCP: Better Refinery Outlook in 4Q19 and Beyond

Yesterday analysts meeting came out with a positive tone. We maintain our BUY rating and a target price of Bt33 based on SOTP, implying to...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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