Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The long-term decline in Thailand allocations among Asia Ex-Japan funds appears to be stabilising.</li>
<li>Over the past 6-months, Thailand weights have increased by 0.29%, with 6.5% of the funds in our analysis adding exposure, though managers remain underweight and underinvested.</li>
<li>CP ALL PCL is the most widely held stock, but recent fund activity has favoured Central Pattana Pub, Bangkok Dusit Medical Services and Asian Sea.</li>
</ul>


The long-term decline in Thailand allocations among Asia Ex-Japan funds appears to be stabilising.
Over the past 6-months, Thailand weights have increased by 0.29%, with 6.5% of the funds in our analysis adding exposure, though managers remain underweight and underinvested.
CP ALL PCL is the most widely held stock, but recent fund activity has favoured Central Pattana Pub, Bangkok Dusit Medical Services and Asian Sea.


Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Last week analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. The improving sales volume and rising oil price should aid the earnings momentum in 1Q22 and ahead.We maintain the BUY</li>
<li>Expect 1Q22 earnings to improve both YoY and QoQ on the back of 1) 4% and 2% QoQ growth in sales volume and ASP, respectively. And 2) No significant impairment</li>
<li>Positive 2022 earnings outlook as the sales volume is expected to increase by +12% YoY to 467kBOED, and ASP by 5% to US$46/BOE.</li>
</ul>


Last week analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. The improving sales volume and rising oil price should aid the earnings momentum in 1Q22 and ahead.We maintain the BUY
Expect 1Q22 earnings to improve both YoY and QoQ on the back of 1) 4% and 2% QoQ growth in sales volume and ASP, respectively. And 2) No significant impairment
Positive 2022 earnings outlook as the sales volume is expected to increase by +12% YoY to 467kBOED, and ASP by 5% to US$46/BOE.


PTTEP: Bright 2022 Outlook from Sales Growth & Rising Oil Price

<ul>
<li>We expect PTTEP to post a solid 4Q21 net profit of Bt9.7bn (+283% YoY, +2% QoQ).</li>
<li>Excluding the impairment loss of US$200m (Mozambique, Yetagun projects), and US$100m gain from reversal of decommissioning expense of Bongkot project, the recurring profit is expected to be Bt13.2bn (+162% YoY)</li>
<li>The YoY surge will be from 10% and 27% growth in sales volume and  average product selling price (ASP) respectively.</li>
</ul>


We expect PTTEP to post a solid 4Q21 net profit of Bt9.7bn (+283% YoY, +2% QoQ).
Excluding the impairment loss of US$200m (Mozambique, Yetagun projects), and US$100m gain from reversal of decommissioning expense of Bongkot project, the recurring profit is expected to be Bt13.2bn (+162% YoY)
The YoY surge will be from 10% and 27% growth in sales volume and  average product selling price (ASP) respectively.


PTTEP: Solid Earnings Performance Hit by Impairment Loss

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based upon our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine new join the fray</li>
<li>Since inception, the portfolio has gained 170% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 23%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based upon our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine new join the fray
Since inception, the portfolio has gained 170% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 23%


<ul>
<li>We have a positive view on the 5-year investment plan (2022-26) revealed by PTTEP yesterday. The 5% CAGR sales growth and crude oil price at high levels should support </li>
<li>PTTEP revealed the 5-year investment plan for 2022-26. The total budget is US$27.2bn, a 15% higher than the previous plan (2021-25).</li>
<li>Bulk of the CAPEX is allocated for producing projects. In 2022, the company aims at maintaining the production volume from major projects and startup of some under development projects viz.Bongkot</li>
</ul>


We have a positive view on the 5-year investment plan (2022-26) revealed by PTTEP yesterday. The 5% CAGR sales growth and crude oil price at high levels should support 
PTTEP revealed the 5-year investment plan for 2022-26. The total budget is US$27.2bn, a 15% higher than the previous plan (2021-25).
Bulk of the CAPEX is allocated for producing projects. In 2022, the company aims at maintaining the production volume from major projects and startup of some under development projects viz.Bongkot


PTTEP: Prudent Growth in 2022-26 from 5.0% CAGR Sales

Thailand

PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited explores for crude oil and natural gas, develops fields for production, and produces oil and natural gas. The Company is a subsidiary of the Petroleum Authority of Thailand.

PTT Exploration & Production P (PTTEP-R TB)

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PTT Exploration & Production P (PTTEP-R TB)

The Thailand Turnaround

The long-term decline in Thailand allocations among Asia Ex-Japan funds appears to be stabilising. We analyse the shift in sentiment among investors.

Steven Holden

PTTEP: Bright 2022 Outlook from Sales Growth & Rising Oil Price

Last week analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. The improving sales volume and rising oil price should aid the earnings momentum in 1Q22 and...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

PTTEP: Solid Earnings Performance Hit by Impairment Loss

We expect PTTEP to post a solid 4Q21 net profit of Bt9.7bn (+283% YoY, +2% QoQ). •Excluding the impairment loss of US$200m (Mozambique, Yetagun...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 37

Our research team constantly reviews the ASEAN markets to try to find interesting ideas based on Fundamentals or Valuation or Momentum or Risk or...

A. Stotz Investment Research

PTTEP: Prudent Growth in 2022-26 from 5.0% CAGR Sales

We have a positive view on the 5-year investment plan (2022-26) revealed by PTTEP yesterday. The 5% CAGR sales growth and crude oil price at high...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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