Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Progressive Corp delivered a mixed set of results in its most recent result, with revenues above Wall Street expectations but below-par earnings.</li><li>The growth in new applications represents an increase in quotes from the current shopping in the marketplace as well as an increase in the convention.</li><li>This resulted in increasing reserves as well as reach with increases in rate.</li></ul>

Progressive Corp delivered a mixed set of results in its most recent result, with revenues above Wall Street expectations but below-par earnings.The growth in new applications represents an increase in quotes from the current shopping in the marketplace as well as an increase in the convention.This resulted in increasing reserves as well as reach with increases in rate.

Progressive Corp.: A Closer Look at The Biggest Catalysts For Future Growth – Financial Forecasts

<ul><li>This is our first report on auto insurance major, Progressive Corp.</li><li>The company had a disappointing quarter and failed to meet Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.</li><li>This quarter, the company increased personal auto rates in 20 states at an average of around 5% each day for an overall countrywide premium impact of +2%.</li></ul>

This is our first report on auto insurance major, Progressive Corp.The company had a disappointing quarter and failed to meet Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.This quarter, the company increased personal auto rates in 20 states at an average of around 5% each day for an overall countrywide premium impact of +2%.

Progressive Corp: Initiation of Coverage – Technological Superiority & Other Drivers

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We currently see the market indexes as consolidating within broad horizontal trading ranges, and we expect these ranges to continue for months, and quite possibly for the entirety of 2023.</li>
<li>We see the top-end of the range at 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500, while the bottom-end is at the 2022 lows (3490).</li>
<li>With yesterday's break above 3910 it tells us a tradable rally has begun, with 4100-4165 our target</li>
</ul>


We currently see the market indexes as consolidating within broad horizontal trading ranges, and we expect these ranges to continue for months, and quite possibly for the entirety of 2023.
We see the top-end of the range at 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500, while the bottom-end is at the 2022 lows (3490).
With yesterday's break above 3910 it tells us a tradable rally has begun, with 4100-4165 our target


Awaiting CPI Thursday; Expect 4100-4165 SPX to Cap Upside; Buy Ideas Within Gold Miners, Insurance

<ul>
<li>Despite a few tumultuous trading days, the S&amp;P 500 remains above its 200-week MA (3590-3600) and the Russell 2000 (IWM) remains above $163 -- both important support levels moving forward.</li>
<li>We continue to see potential for a bear market rally (~+10% from the lows) as long as these support levels hold.</li>
<li>Bear market rallies would be confirmed by bullish reversals of the 2-month downtrends, or above 3810 on the SPX and above $174 on the IWM, and the latter happened today.</li>
</ul>


Despite a few tumultuous trading days, the S&amp;P 500 remains above its 200-week MA (3590-3600) and the Russell 2000 (IWM) remains above $163 -- both important support levels moving forward.
We continue to see potential for a bear market rally (~+10% from the lows) as long as these support levels hold.
Bear market rallies would be confirmed by bullish reversals of the 2-month downtrends, or above 3810 on the SPX and above $174 on the IWM, and the latter happened today.


Bear Market Rally Remains in Play; Russell 2000 (IWM) Short-Term Breakout; Buys in Banks & Insurance

Writing about High Quality Companies, Enlightened Capital

Enlightened Capital

Writing about High Quality Companies

I have more than 8 years of investing experience across Equities and Fixed Income (Investment Grade/High Yield). I have largely focused on Financials, Energy, and Utilities professionally, but I am interested in exploring new sectors to find attractive opportunities. Right now, the Payments sector is occupying much of my time.

<ul><li>PGR had a challenging 3Q21, with Operating Earnings down 92% y/y to $82mn</li><li>PGR recently updated investors on the large opportunity within its commercial lines business and provided an overview of the key drivers for that segment’s success over time.</li><li>I continue to believe that PGR represents an attractive investment opportunity, especially given PGR’s commanding underwriting lead over its peers, impressive market share gains over time, and attractive growth avenues.</li></ul>

PGR had a challenging 3Q21, with Operating Earnings down 92% y/y to $82mnPGR recently updated investors on the large opportunity within its commercial lines business and provided an overview of the key drivers for that segment’s success over time.I continue to believe that PGR represents an attractive investment opportunity, especially given PGR’s commanding underwriting lead over its peers, impressive market share gains over time, and attractive growth avenues.

United States

American International Group, Inc. is an international insurance organization serving commercial, institutional and individual customers. AIG provides property-casualty insurance, life insurance and retirement services.

MetLife, Inc. provides individual insurance, employee benefits and financial services with operations throughout the United States and the regions of Latin America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. The Company's products include life insurance, annuities, automobile and homeowners insurance, retail banking and other financial services to individuals as well as group insurance.

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. and its subsidiaries provide insurance brokerage, risk management, employee benefit, and other related services to clients in the United States and abroad. The Company's principal activity is the negotiation and placement of insurance for its clients. Gallagher also specializes in furnishing risk management services.

Aon PLC is a professional services provider. The Company is comprised of risk and insurance brokerage consulting. Aon's services include helping manage risk for clients, negotiating and placing insurance risk with other carriers, and advising clients related to health and benefits, retirement, compensation, strategic human capital, and human resource outsourcing.

Chubb Limited operates as a property and casualty insurance company. The Company provides commercial and personal property, casualty, and personal accident and supplemental health insurance, reinsurance, and life insurance to a diverse group of clients.

Aflac, Inc. is a general business holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides supplemental insurance to individuals in the United States and Japan.  Aflac's products include accident/disability plans, cancer expense plans, short-term disability plans, sickness and hospital indemnity plans, hospital intensive care plans, and fixed-benefit dental plans.

Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. is a professional services firm providing advice and solutions in the areas of risk, strategy, and human capital. Marsh & McLennan offers analysis, advice, and transactional capabilities to clients worldwide.

Arch Capital Group Ltd. is a Bermuda-based insurance and financial services company that provides reinsurance and insurance products on a worldwide basis.

The Travelers Companies, Inc. provides commercial and personal property and casualty insurance products and services to businesses, government units, associations, and individuals.

Prudential Financial, Inc. provides financial services throughout the United States and several locations worldwide. The Company offers a variety of products and services, including life insurance, mutual funds, annuities, pension, and retirement related services, as well as administration and asset management.

China Life Insurance Company Ltd. offers a wide range of life, accident, and health insurance products and services.

Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc., through subsidiaries, offers property, casualty and life insurance, and asset management services.

Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China Limited provides a variety of insurance service in China.  The Company writes property, casualty, and life insurance.  Ping An Insurance also offers financial services.

AIA Group Limited offers insurance and financial services. The Company writes life insurance for individuals, businesses, accident, and health insurance, as well as retirement planning and wealth management services.

AXA SA is an insurance company which also provides related financial services. The Company offers life and non-life insurance, savings and pension products, and asset management services.  AXA operates in both domestic and international markets.

Allianz SE, through subsidiaries, offers insurance and financial services. The Company offers property and casualty, life and health, credit, motor vehicle, and travel insurance, as well as and fund management services.

Muenchener Rueckversicherungs-Gesellschaft AG (MunichRe) provides financial services. The Company offers reinsurance, insurance, and asset management services. MunichRe has subsidiaries in most major financial centers throughout the world.

Zurich Insurance Group AG provides insurance-based financial services. The Company offers general and life insurance products and services for individuals, small businesses, commercial enterprises, mid-sized and large corporations, and multinational companies.

Muenchener Rueckversicherungs- (MURGY US)

AXA SA is an insurance company which also provides related financial services. The Company offers life and non-life insurance, savings and pension products, and asset management services. AXA operates in both domestic and international markets.

The Progressive Corporation is an insurance holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provide personal and commercial automobile insurance and other specialty property-casualty insurance and related services throughout the United States.

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Progressive Corp (PGR US)

Progressive Corp.: A Closer Look at The Biggest Catalysts For Future Growth – Financial Forecasts

Progressive Corp delivered a mixed set of results in its most recent result, with revenues above Wall Street expectations but below-par...

Baptista Research

Progressive Corp: Initiation of Coverage – Technological Superiority & Other Drivers

This is our first report on auto insurance major, Progressive Corp. The company had a disappointing quarter and failed to meet Wall Street...

Baptista Research

Awaiting CPI Thursday; Expect 4100-4165 SPX to Cap Upside; Buy Ideas Within Gold Miners, Insurance

With yesterday's break above 3910 in $SPX we see a tradable rally, but 4100-4165 is likely to cap upside; reduce risk into that area. Buy ideas...

Vermilion Research

Bear Market Rally Remains in Play; Russell 2000 (IWM) Short-Term Breakout; Buys in Banks & Insurance

A bear market rally (+10% from the lows) remains in play as long as the $SPX remains above its 200-week MA (3590-3600) and the $IWM remains above...

Vermilion Research

Progressive Corp Update: Challenges

Since writing up PGR last year, the stock underperformed the S&P 500, generating a total return of 11.4% compared to 32.6% for the S&P 500....

Enlightened Capital

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