Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P 500 targets for this rally have been the 200-day MAs, coinciding with YTD downtrends.</li>
<li>The Russell already hit this target while the S&amp;P is closing in, less than 1% away.</li>
<li>Still, the vast majority of signals point to further upside ahead for the market indexes, and a possible end to the bear market.</li>
</ul>


Our Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P 500 targets for this rally have been the 200-day MAs, coinciding with YTD downtrends.
The Russell already hit this target while the S&amp;P is closing in, less than 1% away.
Still, the vast majority of signals point to further upside ahead for the market indexes, and a possible end to the bear market.


Rally Continues Following Breaks in USD & 10-Yr Yield; Buy Ideas in Energy & Consumer Discretionary

<ul>
<li>Last week we noted the S&amp;P 500 was testing support at 3800-3860 within its downtrend channel and that we were on watch for a potential bear market rally/oversold bounce.</li>
<li>This has officially begun following the break above 4030 on the S&amp;P 500, which was confirmed by bullish reversals on the Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100, DAX, Hang Seng, MCHI, KWEB.</li>
<li>As long as 3858 holds, it is possible the S&amp;P 500 breaks above the longer-term downtrend near the 200-day MA, which would mean the start of a new bull market.</li>
</ul>


Last week we noted the S&amp;P 500 was testing support at 3800-3860 within its downtrend channel and that we were on watch for a potential bear market rally/oversold bounce.
This has officially begun following the break above 4030 on the S&amp;P 500, which was confirmed by bullish reversals on the Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100, DAX, Hang Seng, MCHI, KWEB.
As long as 3858 holds, it is possible the S&amp;P 500 breaks above the longer-term downtrend near the 200-day MA, which would mean the start of a new bull market.


Bear Market Rally With Potential for More; Buy Ideas in Shipping, Land Drilling, Refining, Chemicals

The MSCI ACWI and S&amp;P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a bullish trend change. Combine this with improving market internals and we are becoming incrementally more bullish. For the MSCI ACWI, one of the more concerning breadth indicators has been the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average. This indicator recently hit a higher high (see below, left), a positive development that confirms the market’s recent advance. In today's report we highlight opportunities within global Energy and Technology companies, two of our overweights.

The MSCI ACWI and S&amp;P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a bullish trend change. Combine this with improving market internals and we are becoming incrementally more bullish. For the MSCI ACWI, one of the more concerning breadth indicators has been the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average. This indicator recently hit a higher high (see below, left), a positive development that confirms the market’s recent advance. In today's report we highlight opportunities within global Energy and Technology companies, two of our overweights. 

Global Energy Shares Breaking Out; Technology Remains Attractive

Outside of weakness in interest-rate sensitive segments, namely REITs and Utilities, the latter which is breaking down to 15-year relative strength lows, U.S. equity market technicals remain constructive. And allowing for occasional back and filling, we expect this bullish trend to continue. In today's report, we outline our investment thesis and highlight actionable names in energy service stocks.

Outside of weakness in interest-rate sensitive segments, namely REITs and Utilities, the latter which is breaking down to 15-year relative strength lows, U.S. equity market technicals remain constructive. And allowing for occasional back and filling, we expect this bullish trend to continue. In today's report, we outline our investment thesis and highlight actionable names in energy service stocks.

Both Energy and Materials have hurriedly advanced within our relative strength rankings over the past several weeks--now ranking #2 and #4, respectively--confirming the widespread patterns visible in the charts of each Sector’s constituents: bottoms and bases.We have highlighted these evolving set-ups over the past year, identifying: improving internals in energy (Aug. 12), then labeling it as a bottom the following week; also, reiterating copper nearly twelve months ago from today, recommending fertilizers (Dec. 13), and reiterating metals &amp; mining stocks (Dec. 18).Given the improving relative strength trends coupled with constructive patterns, we are upgrading both sectors to overweight from market weight.

Both Energy and Materials have hurriedly advanced within our relative strength rankings over the past several weeks--now ranking #2 and #4, respectively--confirming the widespread patterns visible in the charts of each Sector’s constituents: bottoms and bases.We have highlighted these evolving set-ups over the past year, identifying: improving internals in energy (Aug. 12), then labeling it as a bottom the following week; also, reiterating copper nearly twelve months ago from today, recommending fertilizers (Dec. 13), and reiterating metals &amp; mining stocks (Dec. 18).Given the improving relative strength trends coupled with constructive patterns, we are upgrading both sectors to overweight from market weight.

Upgrading U.S. Energy & Materials Sectors to Overweight

United States

Precision Drilling Corporation is an integrated oilfield drilling and energy service company providing services to the oil and gas industry.  The Company provides oilfield rentals, well services, catering services, and drilling services through its several business units.

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Precision Drilling Corp (PDS US)

Rally Continues Following Breaks in USD & 10-Yr Yield; Buy Ideas in Energy & Consumer Discretionary

Our $IWM target (its 200-day MA) has been hit and our $SPX target is less than 1% away. Still, the rally is poised to continue following breaks in...

Vermilion Research

Bear Market Rally With Potential for More; Buy Ideas in Shipping, Land Drilling, Refining, Chemicals

With the $SPX reversing topside the 1-month downtrend (at 4030), the bear market rally is underway with the potential for more. Resistance levels:...

Vermilion Research

Global Energy Shares Breaking Out; Technology Remains Attractive

The MSCI ACWI and S&P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy Weekly

Outside of weakness in interest-rate sensitive segments, namely REITs and Utilities, the latter which is breaking down to 15-year relative strength...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading U.S. Energy & Materials Sectors to Overweight

Both Energy and Materials have hurriedly advanced within our relative strength rankings over the past several weeks--now ranking #2 and #4,...

Vermilion Research

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