CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based upon our FVMR Methodology. Our research team constantly reviews the Thai market to try to find interesting ideas base upon Fundamentals or Valuation or Momentum or Risk or some combination thereof.</p>

We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based upon our FVMR Methodology. Our research team constantly reviews the Thai market to try to find interesting ideas base upon Fundamentals or Valuation or Momentum or Risk or some combination thereof.

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 33

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong>We downgrade PSL with SELL rating as we expect dry bulk freight rates to drop in mid 2Q21 from a high base reported in 1Q21 while anticipating the rate to recover again possibly during a U.S. soybean harvest season in late September. The stock also trading on demanding valuation at 2.4xPBV’21E (+3 S.D. of ten-year average)</strong></p><div>• Maintain positive outlook for TC rate recovery in 2021-22E</div><div></div><div>• Anticipate demand for seaborne trade to slow down in 2Q21</div><div></div><div>• Revise up earnings by 86% and 27% in 2021-22E</div><p></p><p><strong>PSL stock price surged 40%MTD to factored in a solid rebound in TC rate after a correction in the past one month. Deep correction in stock price will create opportunity for investors to accumulate as we still maintain positive earnings outlook in 2021-23E on the back of TC rate recovery following an improving global fleet demand-supply balance. Our target price at Bt14.0 (previous TP:10.0) derived from 1.8xPBV’22E (+2 S.D. of ten-year average).</strong></p>

We downgrade PSL with SELL rating as we expect dry bulk freight rates to drop in mid 2Q21 from a high base reported in 1Q21 while anticipating the rate to recover again possibly during a U.S. soybean harvest season in late September. The stock also trading on demanding valuation at 2.4xPBV’21E (+3 S.D. of ten-year average)• Maintain positive outlook for TC rate recovery in 2021-22E• Anticipate demand for seaborne trade to slow down in 2Q21• Revise up earnings by 86% and 27% in 2021-22EPSL stock price surged 40%MTD to factored in a solid rebound in TC rate after a correction in the past one month. Deep correction in stock price will create opportunity for investors to accumulate as we still maintain positive earnings outlook in 2021-23E on the back of TC rate recovery following an improving global fleet demand-supply balance. Our target price at Bt14.0 (previous TP:10.0) derived from 1.8xPBV’22E (+2 S.D. of ten-year average).

PSL: Anticipate Demand for Seaborne Trade to Slow Down in 2Q21

<p><strong>We expect the PSL’s earnings to turn positive in 4Q20 as TC rate is recovering back to above breakeven level owing to strong demand recovery after the pandemic and easing fleet supply glut issue. Looking forward to 2021E, we forecast the company to book the annual net profit for the first time in the past three years driven by the same factor mentioned above.</strong></p><div><strong>• Positive outlook for TC rate in 2021</strong></div><div></div><div><strong>• Recovery in demand side</strong></div><div></div><div><strong>• Revise up earnings by 570% in 2021E and 47% in 2022E.</strong></div><p></p><p><strong>We maintain our BUY rating with a new target price of Bt10.0 (Previous TP: Bt7.10) derived from 1.43xPBV’21E, equivalent to +1S.D. of ten year average historical PBV. We forecast core earnings to turn positive in 2021E onwards on the back of TC rate recovery following an improving global fleet demand-supply balance.</strong></p>

We expect the PSL’s earnings to turn positive in 4Q20 as TC rate is recovering back to above breakeven level owing to strong demand recovery after the pandemic and easing fleet supply glut issue. Looking forward to 2021E, we forecast the company to book the annual net profit for the first time in the past three years driven by the same factor mentioned above.• Positive outlook for TC rate in 2021• Recovery in demand side• Revise up earnings by 570% in 2021E and 47% in 2022E.We maintain our BUY rating with a new target price of Bt10.0 (Previous TP: Bt7.10) derived from 1.43xPBV’21E, equivalent to +1S.D. of ten year average historical PBV. We forecast core earnings to turn positive in 2021E onwards on the back of TC rate recovery following an improving global fleet demand-supply balance.

PSL: Positive Outlook for Dry Bulk Carrier Market in 2021-22E

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

Kerry Express Thailand / Equity Capital Markets

<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/179/974/original/BANNER-TTOtherDec20_GreyOrange.png?1608781028" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="179974"></figure></section><p>In a previous note we argued <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-express-thailand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29253:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB)</a>, at its IPO price of 28 baht per share, was attractively priced relative to comps in the Chinese express sector.</p><p>However, after shares jumped 83% to 51.25 baht in their trading debut on December 24, KEX's EV/Revenue and EV/EBITDA multiples increased substantially (even as its Chinese comps faded).</p><p>A day after its public debut, KEX is still a unique Thai play on eCommerce and the company enjoys strong market position in a growing segment. However, at 50+ baht per share it is no longer cheap.</p><p>By the way, Merry Christmas!</p>

In a previous note we argued Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB), at its IPO price of 28 baht per share, was attractively priced relative to comps in the Chinese express sector.However, after shares jumped 83% to 51.25 baht in their trading debut on December 24, KEX's EV/Revenue and EV/EBITDA multiples increased substantially (even as its Chinese comps faded).A day after its public debut, KEX is still a unique Thai play on eCommerce and the company enjoys strong market position in a growing segment. However, at 50+ baht per share it is no longer cheap.By the way, Merry Christmas!

Kerry Express Thailand: Just One Day Into Public Life, KEX Suddenly Looks Expensive

<p>In an updated filing, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-express-thailand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29253:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB)</a> indicated it could sell as many as 300 mn new shares in its planned IPO. Many media reports have suggested the company hopes to raise about US$300 mn in the offering, suggesting KEX will come to market at around 30 baht per share.</p><p>In this note, we try to answer the following questions regarding KEX's valuation:</p><ul>
<li>What are the most useful 'comps' for KEX? </li>
<li>What are some appropriate valuation multiples to use in comparing KEX to peers?</li>
<li>How does KEX's valuation at 30 baht per share compare to the peer group we've identified?</li>
<li>What factors could support either a premium or discount valuation for KEX versus peers?</li>
</ul><p>At 30 baht per share (which implies market capitalization of US$1.7 bn), KEX would <em>not</em> be overvalued relative to peers, in our view, and there are reasons KEX could eventually demand a premium valuation relative to other express companies.</p>

In an updated filing, Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB) indicated it could sell as many as 300 mn new shares in its planned IPO. Many media reports have suggested the company hopes to raise about US$300 mn in the offering, suggesting KEX will come to market at around 30 baht per share.In this note, we try to answer the following questions regarding KEX's valuation:
What are the most useful 'comps' for KEX? 
What are some appropriate valuation multiples to use in comparing KEX to peers?
How does KEX's valuation at 30 baht per share compare to the peer group we've identified?
What factors could support either a premium or discount valuation for KEX versus peers?
At 30 baht per share (which implies market capitalization of US$1.7 bn), KEX would not be overvalued relative to peers, in our view, and there are reasons KEX could eventually demand a premium valuation relative to other express companies.

Kerry Express Thailand (KEX) IPO: Approach to Valuation

Thailand

Precious Shipping Public Company Limited is a ship owner providing regional marine shipping services. The Company operates in the tramp freight market sector where its vessels are employed on a time charter as well as voyage charter basis.  Precious Shipping has a network of shipping agents worldwide.

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Precious Shipping (PSL TB)

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 33

Our Thai portfolio has gained 85% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 30%. Since the last rebalancing, it has had 10 major outperformers: RCL,...

A. Stotz Investment Research

PSL: Anticipate Demand for Seaborne Trade to Slow Down in 2Q21

We downgrade PSL with SELL rating as we expect dry bulk freight rates to drop in mid 2Q21 from a high base reported in 1Q21 while anticipating the...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

PSL: Positive Outlook for Dry Bulk Carrier Market in 2021-22E

We expect the PSL’s earnings to turn positive in 4Q20 as TC rate is recovering back to above breakeven level owing to strong demand recovery after...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Kerry Express Thailand: Just One Day Into Public Life, KEX Suddenly Looks Expensive

After it jumped by 83% to 51.25 baht per share in its trading debut, it's suddenly much tougher to argue that KEX is attractively priced versus peers.

Tracking Traffic

Kerry Express Thailand (KEX) IPO: Approach to Valuation

What's the right valuation approach to Kerry Express (KEX), which hopes to complete its IPO in Thailand in the coming weeks?

Tracking Traffic

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