Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global MSCI indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) are pulling back following recent breakouts to multi-year highs. Europe, Japan also pulling back to uptrend supports.</li>
<li>Short-Term supports to watch-discussed in our May 23, 2024 Int'l Compass-include $110.50 on ACWI-US, $53.50 on ACWX-US, $80 on EFA-US, and $41-42 on EEM-US; buy this pullback. </li>
<li>As long as these supports hold, we anticipate significantly higher prices ahead. Combination of supports holding and healthy market dynamics continues to validate our bullish outlook on global equities.</li>
</ul>


Global MSCI indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) are pulling back following recent breakouts to multi-year highs. Europe, Japan also pulling back to uptrend supports.
Short-Term supports to watch-discussed in our May 23, 2024 Int'l Compass-include $110.50 on ACWI-US, $53.50 on ACWX-US, $80 on EFA-US, and $41-42 on EEM-US; buy this pullback. 
As long as these supports hold, we anticipate significantly higher prices ahead. Combination of supports holding and healthy market dynamics continues to validate our bullish outlook on global equities.


Buy the Pullback; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy; Buys in Tech, Discretionary, Healthcare, Utilities

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The HK$34/share offer price is final, which exceeds all-time high closing price of HK$33.60/share since IPO in 2010. EUR6 billion is equivalent to a PE of 52.17x, higher than peers.</li>
<li>Deploying China's sinking market is “a good story full of imagination”. However, it may fail to bring expected profits considering increasing competition/potential price war, leading to uncertain future performance growth.</li>
<li>For minority shareholders, this privatization provides an attractive opportunity to monetise their investments at a premium over market price. We don't think the current "technical bull market" to be lasting. </li>
</ul>


The HK$34/share offer price is final, which exceeds all-time high closing price of HK$33.60/share since IPO in 2010. EUR6 billion is equivalent to a PE of 52.17x, higher than peers.
Deploying China's sinking market is “a good story full of imagination”. However, it may fail to bring expected profits considering increasing competition/potential price war, leading to uncertain future performance growth.
For minority shareholders, this privatization provides an attractive opportunity to monetise their investments at a premium over market price. We don't think the current "technical bull market" to be lasting. 


L'Occitane (973.HK) Privatization - The Offer Price Is Good Enough

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Post market close tomorrow, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> that will be implemented at the close on 7 June.</li>
<li>There were no constituent changes to the index in March. We highlight ten profitable and eligible stocks that could be added to the index in June.</li>
<li>Changes to the Hang Seng Industry Classification System (HSICS) could lead to inclusions for the Information Technology industry while there could also be inclusions for the underweighted Healthcare industry.</li>
</ul>


Post market close tomorrow, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 7 June.
There were no constituent changes to the index in March. We highlight ten profitable and eligible stocks that could be added to the index in June.
Changes to the Hang Seng Industry Classification System (HSICS) could lead to inclusions for the Information Technology industry while there could also be inclusions for the underweighted Healthcare industry.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for June

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Belle Fashion Group / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Belle Fashion (BF) aims to raise up to US$1bn in its Hong Kong listing. The company recently refiled its application proof after a gap of two years.</li>
<li>As per F&amp;S, it was the largest player in China’s fashion footwear market with a 12.3% market share, based on 2022 retail sales.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance based on its earlier filings in 2022. In this note, we talk about the updates from its recent filings.</li>
</ul>


Belle Fashion (BF) aims to raise up to US$1bn in its Hong Kong listing. The company recently refiled its application proof after a gap of two years.
As per F&amp;S, it was the largest player in China’s fashion footwear market with a 12.3% market share, based on 2022 retail sales.
We have looked at the company’s past performance based on its earlier filings in 2022. In this note, we talk about the updates from its recent filings.


<ul>
<li>At 82 index constituents currently, we expect the index committee to progress towards reaching 100 constituents. We are (highly) unlikely to reach the target this calendar year though.</li>
<li>We highlight nine stocks that have a decent chance at being added to the index over the next couple of rebalances. All companies are profitable and meet inclusion requirements.</li>
<li>The market consultation on proposed changes to the Hang Seng Industry Classification System (HSICS) could lead to more inclusions from the Information Technology sector from the June rebalance.</li>
</ul>


At 82 index constituents currently, we expect the index committee to progress towards reaching 100 constituents. We are (highly) unlikely to reach the target this calendar year though.
We highlight nine stocks that have a decent chance at being added to the index over the next couple of rebalances. All companies are profitable and meet inclusion requirements.
The market consultation on proposed changes to the Hang Seng Industry Classification System (HSICS) could lead to more inclusions from the Information Technology sector from the June rebalance.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for March

Italy

Prada S.p.A. is an Italian fashion company that designs, manufactures, promotes and sells high-end leather goods, ready-to-wear and footwear through various brands.

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Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK)

Buy the Pullback; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy; Buys in Tech, Discretionary, Healthcare, Utilities

Buy the Pullbacks in $EFA $ACWX as they hold above $80 and $53.50 supports; Europe and Japan also buyable pullbacks to uptrend supports; Market...

Vermilion Research

L'Occitane (973.HK) Privatization - The Offer Price Is Good Enough

The Offeror has received valid expressions of interest from Minority Shareholders holding, in aggregate, not less than 10% of Disinterested Shares....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for June

The move to 100 constituents is expected to drag on into 2025. We highlight 10 stocks that could be considered for inclusion in the HSI in June....

Brian Freitas

Belle Fashion Pre-IPO - Refiling Updates

Belle Fashion (BF) aims to raise up to US$1bn in its Hong Kong listing. The company recently refiled its application proof after a gap of two years.

Sumeet Singh

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for March

The announcement of the inclusions to the HSI at the March rebalance will be made post market close today. Most stocks are trading lower which is...

Brian Freitas

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