Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A weekly curated selection of around 10 local Chinese news articles or company announcements, focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; see direct links to sources </li>
</ul>


A weekly curated selection of around 10 local Chinese news articles or company announcements, focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; see direct links to sources 


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 23 June 2023

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>It's often not what it seems when it comes to reading China's official data for new home sales, and the construction indicators for New Starts, Completions, and Under-Construction area</li>
<li>From a demand-supply perspective, the Under-Construction figures seem heavily over-estimated, given the way new starts are counted, industry practices, and 'dead supply'; closer to 4bn rather than 7bn sqm</li>
<li>The gap between sales and completions has more to do with data collection and definitions than the actual 'gap' - a much smaller problem than publicized</li>
</ul>


It's often not what it seems when it comes to reading China's official data for new home sales, and the construction indicators for New Starts, Completions, and Under-Construction area
From a demand-supply perspective, the Under-Construction figures seem heavily over-estimated, given the way new starts are counted, industry practices, and 'dead supply'; closer to 4bn rather than 7bn sqm
The gap between sales and completions has more to do with data collection and definitions than the actual 'gap' - a much smaller problem than publicized


China Housing: Demand-Supply Fundamentals - Part #3: Solving The Construction Indicators Puzzle

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/china-jinmao-holdings-group' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>China Jinmao Holdings</a></li><li><a href='/entities/lifestyle-international-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Lifestyle International Holdings</a></li><li><a href='/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Geely Auto</a></li><li><a href='/entities/first-pacific-co-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>First Pacific Co</a></li><li><a href='/entities/tata-motors-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Tata Motors Ltd</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:China Jinmao HoldingsLifestyle International HoldingsGeely AutoFirst Pacific CoTata Motors Ltdand more...

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-28672'>Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings

Morning Views Asia: Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/vedanta-resources-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Vedanta Resources</a></li><li><a href='/entities/tata-motors-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Tata Motors Ltd</a></li><li><a href='/entities/health-and-happiness-h-h-int' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Health And Happiness (H&H)</a></li><li><a href='/entities/central-china-real-estate-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Central China Real Estate</a></li><li><a href='/entities/agile-property-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Agile Property Holdings</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:Vedanta ResourcesTata Motors LtdHealth And Happiness (H&H)Central China Real EstateAgile Property Holdingsand more...

China

Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd. develops commercial properties in the Peoples Republic of China.

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Powerlong Real Estate Holdings (1238 HK)

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 23 June 2023

Focused on Chinese developers in distress, this weekly curated selection of summarized local Chinese news/announcements gives a more local feel to...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: Demand-Supply Fundamentals - Part #3: Solving The Construction Indicators Puzzle

China Property: Why Is the Under-Construction GFA so high and the Sales-Completions gap so large? We dig into the data definitions and industry...

Robert Ciemniak

Weekly Wrap - 23 Jun 2023

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Weekly Wrap - 16 Jun 2023

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

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