Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We are far from the dire days in February, March and April 2020. During that time it was all about size and pace of new central bank support packages and government fiscal stimulus. We should not lose sight of the fact that these monies continue to make banks incredibly liquid. The ability to lend into the current recovery is unprecedented.

We are far from the dire days in February, March and April 2020. During that time it was all about size and pace of new central bank support packages and government fiscal stimulus. We should not lose sight of the fact that these monies continue to make banks incredibly liquid. The ability to lend into the current recovery is unprecedented. 

US Banks – Lending Ability Unprecedented

While economic recovery data may be clearest, we look to US banks’ C19 loan modifications. Most banks globally term these loans as deferral loans, and they are a new feature of banks’ balance sheets from the government actions taken early in this year. Modified loans or reschedule loans have narrowed dramatically in the most recent quarter, suggesting that the degree of stress is not worsening, and quite the contrary.

While economic recovery data may be clearest, we look to US banks’ C19 loan modifications. Most banks globally term these loans as deferral loans, and they are a new feature of banks’ balance sheets from the government actions taken early in this year. Modified loans or reschedule loans have narrowed dramatically in the most recent quarter, suggesting that the degree of stress is not worsening, and quite the contrary.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

In last Tuesday’s Compass (10/27/20) we noted the S&amp;P 500’s break below 3425 short-term support opened the door for potential visits to 3325 and 3200. Support at 3325 was violated by Wednesday, however the 3200-3230 level has held and remains important support moving forward.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Financials: Asian Banks, Puerto Rican Banks, Banks, Southwest, and Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage, Mid-Cap

In last Tuesday’s Compass (10/27/20) we noted the S&amp;P 500’s break below 3425 short-term support opened the door for potential visits to 3325 and 3200. Support at 3325 was violated by Wednesday, however the 3200-3230 level has held and remains important support moving forward.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Financials: Asian Banks, Puerto Rican Banks, Banks, Southwest, and Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage, Mid-Cap

U.S. Equity Strategy: Markets Bouncing off Key Support

There is granular data for US banks on loan modifications due to the economic shutdown as well as Payment Protection Program (PPP) loans. One may presume that banks with a significant amount of the former especially, and potentially the latter too, would enjoy lower credit costs. The reality though may surprise many. For us, we wonder if together with recovery, from a crisis completely unlike others, as we flip the switch back on, if banks with high modifications may be t more positively leveraged?

There is granular data for US banks on loan modifications due to the economic shutdown as well as Payment Protection Program (PPP) loans. One may presume that banks with a significant amount of the former especially, and potentially the latter too, would enjoy lower credit costs. The reality though may surprise many. For us, we wonder if together with recovery, from a crisis completely unlike others, as we flip the switch back on, if banks with high modifications may be t more positively leveraged?

The key for US banks in upcoming results will be the effect of lower corporate taxes on the carrying value of deferred tax assets (DTA). While not a major issue for most banks and especially money center banks, impairments will be meaningful for some. HSBC Finance also stands out here – although technically not a bank - where its DTA are exceptionally high compared with its stated net worth and more so than most all banks in the US.Operationally, what most will be looking for are improvements in…

The key for US banks in upcoming results will be the effect of lower corporate taxes on the carrying value of deferred tax assets (DTA). While not a major issue for most banks and especially money center banks, impairments will be meaningful for some. HSBC Finance also stands out here – although technically not a bank - where its DTA are exceptionally high compared with its stated net worth and more so than most all banks in the US.Operationally, what most will be looking for are improvements in…

US Banks – What to Look for in 4Q17 Results

United States

Popular, Inc. is a bank holding company that provides commercial banking services through branches in Puerto Rico, the British Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, and the United States mainland. The Company also provides mortgage and consumer finance, lease financing, investment banking, broker and dealer activities, retail financial services, and automated tellers.

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Popular Inc (BPOP US)

US Banks – Lending Ability Unprecedented

We must expect some banks to see major loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) expansion. Banks with exceptionally low LDR’s now and compared with their own...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks – Deferral Debt Dwindling

We look to US banks’ C19 loan modifications. Modified loans or reschedule loans have narrowed dramatically, suggesting that the degree of stress is...

Daniel Tabbush

U.S. Equity Strategy: Markets Bouncing off Key Support

In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Financials: Asian Banks, Puerto Rican banks, Banks, Southwest, and Investment...

Vermilion Research

US Banks – Loan Modifications

There is granular data for US banks on loan modifications due to the economic shutdown as well as Payment Protection Program (PPP) loans. One may...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks – What to Look for in 4Q17 Results

The key for US banks in upcoming results will be the effect of lower corporate taxes on the carrying value of deferred tax assets (DTA). While not...

Daniel Tabbush

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