Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

Despite rising inflationary risks, the South African Reserve Bank held rates steady as it continues to focus on growth risks for now. We expect short-end rates to rise gradually, which combined with the risk premium in the long end coming off, should result in curve flattening.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Despite rising inflationary risks, the South African Reserve Bank held rates steady as it continues to focus on growth risks for now. We expect short-end rates to rise gradually, which combined with the risk premium in the long end coming off, should result in curve flattening.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Rates 10y Dashboard: South Africa’s Rising Breakeven Inflation

In this note, we argue that rates in Poland need to adjust higher as the economy reopens and inflation remains considerably outside the central bank's target range.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

In this note, we argue that rates in Poland need to adjust higher as the economy reopens and inflation remains considerably outside the central bank's target range.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Rates 10y Dashboard: Poland’s Rates Need to Rise Further to Account for Inflation Risk

In this note, we discuss the reasons behind the sharp rise in EM rates volatility, which is typically lower than that of US rates but not this time. An upshot of the rise in volatility is the availability of more trading opportunities.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to the broad market.

In this note, we discuss the reasons behind the sharp rise in EM rates volatility, which is typically lower than that of US rates but not this time. An upshot of the rise in volatility is the availability of more trading opportunities.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to the broad market.

Rates 10y Dashboard: EM Rates Volatility as High as the US in a Rare Occurrence

In this note, we discuss the outperformance of rates in Asia vis-à-vis the US, which has been broad-based and has persisted both when US rates were selling off and when they rallied back.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to the broad market.

In this note, we discuss the outperformance of rates in Asia vis-à-vis the US, which has been broad-based and has persisted both when US rates were selling off and when they rallied back.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to the broad market.

Rates 10y Dashboard: Rates in Asia Continue to Outperform the US

In this note, we point out that even as EM rate curves have broadly steepened, Russia's curve has flattened on the back of more rate hikes getting priced in the short end and the long end losing some of the risk premia that was built in anticipation of US sanctions.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of EM 10y rates market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to the broad market.

In this note, we point out that even as EM rate curves have broadly steepened, Russia's curve has flattened on the back of more rate hikes getting priced in the short end and the long end losing some of the risk premia that was built in anticipation of US sanctions.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of EM 10y rates market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to the broad market.

Rates 10y Dashboard: Russia’s Rate Curve Flattens Even as EM Steepens

Poland

A vanila interest rate swap us an agreement between two counterparties to exchange cashflows (fixed vs floating) in the same currency. This agreement is often used by counterparties to change their fixed cashflows to floating or vice versa. The payments are made during the life of the swap in the frequency that is pre-established by the counterparties.

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PLN 10Y (PZSW10 CURNCY)

Rates 10y Dashboard: South Africa’s Rising Breakeven Inflation

Given the rising inflation breakeven in South Africa, we expect short-end rates to rise gradually, which combined with the risk premium in the long...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Rates 10y Dashboard: Poland’s Rates Need to Rise Further to Account for Inflation Risk

In this note, we argue that rates in Poland need to adjust higher as the economy reopens and inflation remains considerably outside the central...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Rates 10y Dashboard: EM Rates Volatility as High as the US in a Rare Occurrence

We discuss the reasons behind the sharp rise in EM rates volatility, which is typically below the US but not this time. An upshot is the...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Rates 10y Dashboard: Rates in Asia Continue to Outperform the US

In this note, we discuss the outperformance of rates in Asia vis-à-vis the US, which has been broad-based and has persisted both when US rates were...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Rates 10y Dashboard: Russia’s Rate Curve Flattens Even as EM Steepens

Even as EM curves have broadly steepened, Russia's curve has flattened as more rate hikes got priced in the short end and the long end rallied...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)