Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Muyuan Foodstuff Co Ltd A / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>A pullback in global equities is underway following steep uptrend violations on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and EURO STOXX 50. Both are 4-5% off their highs; further downside may be limited.</li>
<li>Several 5%-10% pullbacks are to be expected in any given year, particularly after the historic 5-month rallies, so we view this as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market.</li>
<li>ACWI-US is currently testing important support at $105; if this area were to break, next major supports are $102 and $99; this is where we would be buying.</li>
</ul>


A pullback in global equities is underway following steep uptrend violations on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and EURO STOXX 50. Both are 4-5% off their highs; further downside may be limited.
Several 5%-10% pullbacks are to be expected in any given year, particularly after the historic 5-month rallies, so we view this as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market.
ACWI-US is currently testing important support at $105; if this area were to break, next major supports are $102 and $99; this is where we would be buying.


Pullback Underway; Further Downside Limited?; Buys in Defensives and Commodity-Related Sectors

Petroleo Brasileiro  / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global growth stocks that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back, and we believe a continued pause/pullback is likely in these growth areas.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, we are seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas. This type of Sector rotation is common during bull markets.</li>
<li>Major supports continue to hold, including $98-99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), 4600 on the S&amp;P 500, 4400 on the EURO STOXX 50, and 2300 on the TOPIX</li>
</ul>


Global growth stocks that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back, and we believe a continued pause/pullback is likely in these growth areas.
Meanwhile, we are seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas. This type of Sector rotation is common during bull markets.
Major supports continue to hold, including $98-99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), 4600 on the S&amp;P 500, 4400 on the EURO STOXX 50, and 2300 on the TOPIX


Buys Within Global Energy, Health Care, and Utilities; Bullish Outlook Intact on Global Equities

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

China Galaxy Securities (H) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of small cap stocks within Emerging Markets.</li>
<li>The October rebalance will result in a one-way turnover of ~45% and in a one-way trade of US$1.24bn. There are ~300 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.</li>
<li>With only 4 trading days to implementation, there could be large moves on stocks with large flows and impact over the next few days.</li>
</ul>


The WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of small cap stocks within Emerging Markets.
The October rebalance will result in a one-way turnover of ~45% and in a one-way trade of US$1.24bn. There are ~300 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.
With only 4 trading days to implementation, there could be large moves on stocks with large flows and impact over the next few days.


WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index Rebalance: 45% Turnover & US$2.5bn to Trade

Zhejiang Longsheng Group Co., / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 50 changes a side for the CSI 500 Index at the upcoming rebalance that will be implemented at the close of trading on 9 December.</li>
<li>One-Way turnover at the rebalance is estimated at 12.64% leading to a one-way trade of CNY 9.3bn. The Materials, Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors are net gainers.</li>
<li>9 adds to the CSI 500 Index are deletes from the CSI 300 Index while 7 deletes from the CSI 500 Index are adds to the CSI 300 Index.</li>
</ul>


There are 50 changes a side for the CSI 500 Index at the upcoming rebalance that will be implemented at the close of trading on 9 December.
One-Way turnover at the rebalance is estimated at 12.64% leading to a one-way trade of CNY 9.3bn. The Materials, Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors are net gainers.
9 adds to the CSI 500 Index are deletes from the CSI 300 Index while 7 deletes from the CSI 500 Index are adds to the CSI 300 Index.


CSI 500 Index Rebalance: 50 Changes a Side Leads to 12%+ One-Way Turnover

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
Up-to-date investment decision advice (buy, hold, sell)
Monthly regional and global conference calls
Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Hungary: Faster earnings growth should drive GDP higher in coming months. Mexico: Expected to raise rates 50bps next Thursday in the wake of inflation reported this week at 5.3% (the highest rate in 8 years).  This is a critical positive development for the Peso. Saudi Arabia: Has the most to lose from lower prices as this complicates attempts to diversify their economy.  Iran is less concerned as they are just coming off of sanctions and any revenue they get is better than before.  Iraq would…

Hungary: Faster earnings growth should drive GDP higher in coming months. Mexico: Expected to raise rates 50bps next Thursday in the wake of inflation reported this week at 5.3% (the highest rate in 8 years).  This is a critical positive development for the Peso. Saudi Arabia: Has the most to lose from lower prices as this complicates attempts to diversify their economy.  Iran is less concerned as they are just coming off of sanctions and any revenue they get is better than before.  Iraq would…

Who Wins and Who Loses from Oil Under $50? Hint: Invest in Asia

China

Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co., Ltd. operates underground coal mining, coal washing and processing. The company also provides ground transportation services.

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Pingdingshan Tianan Coal A (601666 CH)

Buys Within Global Energy, Health Care, and Utilities; Bullish Outlook Intact on Global Equities

Seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas globally. Constructive if supports hold: $98-99 on...

Vermilion Research

WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index Rebalance: 45% Turnover & US$2.5bn to Trade

There are 364 adds/325 deletes for the WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index. One-way turnover is 45% resulting in a one-way trade of...

Brian Freitas

CSI 500 Index Rebalance: 50 Changes a Side Leads to 12%+ One-Way Turnover

There are 50 adds/deletes for the index in Dec. One-way turnover is 12.6% leading to a one-way trade of CNY 9bn. There are 16 overlaps between the...

Brian Freitas

Who Wins and Who Loses from Oil Under $50? Hint: Invest in Asia

Hungary: Faster earnings growth should drive GDP higher in coming months.Mexico: Expected to raise rates 50bps next Thursday in the wake of...

David Riedel

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pullback Underway; Further Downside Limited?; Buys in Defensives and Commodity-Related Sectors

Pullback Underway; Further Downside Limited?; Commodities Testing Resistance; Buys in Global Defensives (Staples, Utilities, Telecomm), Commodity...

Vermilion Research

Buys Within Global Energy, Health Care, and Utilities; Bullish Outlook Intact on Global Equities

Seeing a clear shift into value and defensives, and we recommend adding exposure to these areas globally. Constructive if supports hold: $98-99 on...

Vermilion Research

WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index Rebalance: 45% Turnover & US$2.5bn to Trade

There are 364 adds/325 deletes for the WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index. One-way turnover is 45% resulting in a one-way trade of...

Brian Freitas

CSI 500 Index Rebalance: 50 Changes a Side Leads to 12%+ One-Way Turnover

There are 50 adds/deletes for the index in Dec. One-way turnover is 12.6% leading to a one-way trade of CNY 9bn. There are 16 overlaps between the...

Brian Freitas

Who Wins and Who Loses from Oil Under $50? Hint: Invest in Asia

Hungary: Faster earnings growth should drive GDP higher in coming months.Mexico: Expected to raise rates 50bps next Thursday in the wake of...

David Riedel