Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Weak Results Mask Improving Overall Fundamentals: Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping An] reported 1H21 results of CNY 58.0 bn, declining CNY 16.4 bn (22.0%) HOH.  Much of the struggle this half appears to be centered in Ping An’s investment portfolio which caused its net investment yield to plummet 80 bp to 4.1%. This resulted in substantial HOH net profit declines of CNY 20.4 bn (40.6%) and CNY 3.0 bn (48.4%) at Ping An Life (PAL) and Ping An Technology, respectively.  Excluding both write-downs, we note that Ping An’s HOH operating result would have actually improved CNY 8.2 bn or 11.0%; and*Concerns Increase At Bank And With Expansion Plans: Ping An Bank (000001.CH) [PAB] reported 2Q21 reported results of CNY 7.5 bn – decreasing CNY 2.7 bn (26.4%) linked quarter driven by credit concerns and weaker net interest income. In addition, Ping An is investing between CNY 37-51 bn in order to restructure the messy Founder Group, which will no doubt be a distraction for the Group just as fundamentals have begun to turn.

*Weak Results Mask Improving Overall Fundamentals: Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping An] reported 1H21 results of CNY 58.0 bn, declining CNY 16.4 bn (22.0%) HOH.  Much of the struggle this half appears to be centered in Ping An’s investment portfolio which caused its net investment yield to plummet 80 bp to 4.1%. This resulted in substantial HOH net profit declines of CNY 20.4 bn (40.6%) and CNY 3.0 bn (48.4%) at Ping An Life (PAL) and Ping An Technology, respectively.  Excluding both write-downs, we note that Ping An’s HOH operating result would have actually improved CNY 8.2 bn or 11.0%; and*Concerns Increase At Bank And With Expansion Plans: Ping An Bank (000001.CH) [PAB] reported 2Q21 reported results of CNY 7.5 bn – decreasing CNY 2.7 bn (26.4%) linked quarter driven by credit concerns and weaker net interest income. In addition, Ping An is investing between CNY 37-51 bn in order to restructure the messy Founder Group, which will no doubt be a distraction for the Group just as fundamentals have begun to turn.

Ping An Insurance – Looking Beyond The Investment Book

*Bank Results Decline Linked Quarter: Ping An Bank (000001.CH) [PAB], the Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping An] banking subsidiary, continues to feel the challenges of a slowing mainland Chinese economy. For 2Q21, PAB reported results of CNY 7.5 bn – decreasing CNY 2.7 bn (26.4%) linked quarter. From our vantage point, higher loss provisions and weaker net interest income weighed heavily on results; and*Negative Credit Delta Could Accelerate Capital Raise: By our analysis, we find that credit remains incredibly challenged as net new NPLs have accelerated 102.2% annualized - up from 53.6% in 1Q21. Assuming the accelerated credit break in the PAB portfolio continues to remain at its current level, we find that PAB’s reserves still remain quite light by CNY 16 bn. This shortfall represents about two quarter of pre-tax earnings.

*Bank Results Decline Linked Quarter: Ping An Bank (000001.CH) [PAB], the Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping An] banking subsidiary, continues to feel the challenges of a slowing mainland Chinese economy. For 2Q21, PAB reported results of CNY 7.5 bn – decreasing CNY 2.7 bn (26.4%) linked quarter. From our vantage point, higher loss provisions and weaker net interest income weighed heavily on results; and*Negative Credit Delta Could Accelerate Capital Raise: By our analysis, we find that credit remains incredibly challenged as net new NPLs have accelerated 102.2% annualized - up from 53.6% in 1Q21. Assuming the accelerated credit break in the PAB portfolio continues to remain at its current level, we find that PAB’s reserves still remain quite light by CNY 16 bn. This shortfall represents about two quarter of pre-tax earnings.   

Ping An Insurance – Credit Mixed, But Still Worrisome

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

*Document 15: Recently the China Bank and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) issued guidance to both banks and insurers on implicit debt of local government financing vehicles (LGFV) via Document 15 – tightening the screws even further;  and*No Let Up In Sight: Coupled with the structural reforms of an increase in risk-based capital minimums for certain state banks, the partial bank Wealth Management Product (WMP) resolution, and the recent reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reduction, these tightening measures should act to contain some of the out of control financial risk within the mainland Chinese financial system.

*Document 15: Recently the China Bank and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) issued guidance to both banks and insurers on implicit debt of local government financing vehicles (LGFV) via Document 15 – tightening the screws even further;  and*No Let Up In Sight: Coupled with the structural reforms of an increase in risk-based capital minimums for certain state banks, the partial bank Wealth Management Product (WMP) resolution, and the recent reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reduction, these tightening measures should act to contain some of the out of control financial risk within the mainland Chinese financial system.

*New IPO Disappoints Right Out Of Gate: Waterdrop (WDH.US) [Waterdrop] provides an online insurance marketplace and related medical crowdfunding platform in mainland China. Waterdrop  reported its first set of earnings results since its IPO, coming in at a negative CNY 370.2 bn for 1Q21, declining CNY 249.4 (206.6%) YOY largely given its higher costs from a channel (third party traffic) and product mix shift to long-term insurance. Both factors have caused operating costs to increase CNY 579.1 bn (75.7%) YOY  - far outpacing revenue growth of CNY 229.6 bn (35.1%) over the period; and  *All Is Not Lost…Yet: First year premium (FYP) did increase 42.7% YOY – led by costly third party FYP which increased 51.6%. Long-term critical illness insurance grew 132% off of a low base, but still well exceeding industry average. Anecdotally, management believes that competitive pressures appear to be abating and that increases in customer acquisition costs is now decelerating. In addition, Waterdrop continues to make progress with: Waterdrop Health; Waterdrop Medicine; and with outpatient services.

*New IPO Disappoints Right Out Of Gate: Waterdrop (WDH.US) [Waterdrop] provides an online insurance marketplace and related medical crowdfunding platform in mainland China. Waterdrop  reported its first set of earnings results since its IPO, coming in at a negative CNY 370.2 bn for 1Q21, declining CNY 249.4 (206.6%) YOY largely given its higher costs from a channel (third party traffic) and product mix shift to long-term insurance. Both factors have caused operating costs to increase CNY 579.1 bn (75.7%) YOY  - far outpacing revenue growth of CNY 229.6 bn (35.1%) over the period; and  *All Is Not Lost…Yet: First year premium (FYP) did increase 42.7% YOY – led by costly third party FYP which increased 51.6%. Long-term critical illness insurance grew 132% off of a low base, but still well exceeding industry average. Anecdotally, management believes that competitive pressures appear to be abating and that increases in customer acquisition costs is now decelerating. In addition, Waterdrop continues to make progress with: Waterdrop Health; Waterdrop Medicine; and with outpatient services.

*Asian Business Doing Well:Total APE in 1Q21 for Asia and Africa amounted to USD 1.2 bn, increasing USD 177 mn (17.4%) YOY. New business value for Asia and Africa improved USD 102 mn (20.3%) YOY. VONB margins for Asia and Africa improve 3% YOY to 52% at 1Q21. Mainland China delivered solid growth during the quarter, driven by an improved sales campaign and low comparative results in 1Q20; and  *No Action On Jackson: The key disappointment comes from the delay of its Jackson National Life (JNL), US subsidiary, demerger which has now been pushed out until sometime in 2H21 (from 1H21) – even then we don’t have confidence this deal will get done. Management did mention that regulatory approval from Michigan and New York has been obtained, however, a review of the updated Form 10 is ongoing.

*Asian Business Doing Well:Total APE in 1Q21 for Asia and Africa amounted to USD 1.2 bn, increasing USD 177 mn (17.4%) YOY. New business value for Asia and Africa improved USD 102 mn (20.3%) YOY. VONB margins for Asia and Africa improve 3% YOY to 52% at 1Q21. Mainland China delivered solid growth during the quarter, driven by an improved sales campaign and low comparative results in 1Q20; and  *No Action On Jackson: The key disappointment comes from the delay of its Jackson National Life (JNL), US subsidiary, demerger which has now been pushed out until sometime in 2H21 (from 1H21) – even then we don’t have confidence this deal will get done. Management did mention that regulatory approval from Michigan and New York has been obtained, however, a review of the updated Form 10 is ongoing. 

Hong Kong

Ping An Securities Group (Holdings) Limited is an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides a wide range of financial services that includes the provision of securities brokerage, securities underwriting and placements, and financial advisory services in Hong Kong.

Ping An Securities Group (Holdings) (231 HK)

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Ping An Securities Group (Holdings) (231 HK)

Ping An Insurance – Looking Beyond The Investment Book

PING AN INSURANCE: Weak results mask PAI's improving overall fundamentals, as 1H21 HOH declined 22.0% mainly due to investment risk. Excluding the...

Thomas J. Monaco

Ping An Insurance – Credit Mixed, But Still Worrisome

PING AN INSURANCE: Ping An Bank reported a 26.4% QOQ results decline for 2Q21 reflecting higher provisions. Credit is challenged as net new NPLs...

Thomas J. Monaco

China Banks – Screws Tighten On LGFVs

CHINA BANKS: Recently the CBIRC issued guidance on implicit LGFV debt via Document 15 – further tightening the screws on mainland China's financial...

Thomas J. Monaco

Waterdrop – Water Fall

WATERDROP: Waterdrop reported its first set of earnings results since its IPO, declining 206.6% YOY largely due to higher costs from a channel and...

Thomas J. Monaco

Prudential Plc – Asian Pureplay Delay

PRUDENTIAL: Total APE in 1Q21 for Asia and Africa increased 17.4% YOY, with margins improving 3% to 52%. The key disappointment is the delay of its...

Thomas J. Monaco

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