Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We expect to see a strong start to the week for China financials names, with sentiments buoyed by upbeat consumer spending data over the new year holiday.</li>
<li>Early signs point to relatively loose conditions in the interbank market as trading resumes across the board on Monday. The central bank's easing bias will likely continue.</li>
<li>We see more momentum for the sector ahead of Q4 earnings (brokers &gt; insurers &gt; banks). Stock selection will become more important thereafter.</li>
</ul>


We expect to see a strong start to the week for China financials names, with sentiments buoyed by upbeat consumer spending data over the new year holiday.
Early signs point to relatively loose conditions in the interbank market as trading resumes across the board on Monday. The central bank's easing bias will likely continue.
We see more momentum for the sector ahead of Q4 earnings (brokers &gt; insurers &gt; banks). Stock selection will become more important thereafter.


China Financials Weekly: Jan 30 | A Bubbly Opening

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 106.3% as of Jan 20th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -2.6ppt week on week, led by financials, consumer staples, energy and offset by health care.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Haier Smart Home, Weichai Power, Fuyao Glass, China Shenhua, CSSC Offshore, Huaxin Cement, China Oilfield, CICC, China Life.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 106.3% as of Jan 20th.
The average A-H premium changed by -2.6ppt week on week, led by financials, consumer staples, energy and offset by health care.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Haier Smart Home, Weichai Power, Fuyao Glass, China Shenhua, CSSC Offshore, Huaxin Cement, China Oilfield, CICC, China Life.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 20th): Haier Smart Home, Weichai Power, Fuyao Glass, China Shenhua

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 20th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$7,139.5 million, led by information technology, industrials, materials sectors, and offset by real estate.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Kweichow Moutai, CATL, Wuliangye, Ping An Insurance, BOE.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 20th.
We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$7,139.5 million, led by information technology, industrials, materials sectors, and offset by real estate.
We highlight flows for Kweichow Moutai, CATL, Wuliangye, Ping An Insurance, BOE.


Northbound Flows (Jan 20th): $7.1bn Inflows Before CNY

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 13th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Ping An, Li Ning, Icbc, Jiumaojiu.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 13th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Ping An, Li Ning, Icbc, Jiumaojiu.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Ping An, Li Ning, Icbc, Jiumaojiu

Equity Bottom-Up

China Life Insurance Co H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Chinese insurance sector has mounted a strong turnaround on hopes that it will be an early beneficiary of the pivot towards reopening. China Life-H has led the rally.</li>
<li>We have seen some resistance at HKD15/share, but there is still potential for a 30% gain in a blue-sky scenario. We also expect its A/H premium to narrow further.</li>
<li>That said, we believe HKD19/share is as far as the stock will go this year, as credit risks in the insurer's investment portfolio are back in the spotlight. </li>
</ul>


The Chinese insurance sector has mounted a strong turnaround on hopes that it will be an early beneficiary of the pivot towards reopening. China Life-H has led the rally.
We have seen some resistance at HKD15/share, but there is still potential for a 30% gain in a blue-sky scenario. We also expect its A/H premium to narrow further.
That said, we believe HKD19/share is as far as the stock will go this year, as credit risks in the insurer's investment portfolio are back in the spotlight. 


China Life (2628 HK): Rally to Top Out at HKD19/Share as Credit Risks Loom Large

China

Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China Limited provides products and services through its five ecosystems in financial services, healthcare, auto services, real estate services and Smart City solutions. The Group's insurance business writes property, casualty, and life insurance products.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Ping An Insurance Group of (601318 CH)

China Financials Weekly: Jan 30 | A Bubbly Opening

We expect a strong start to the week for the China financials space, after a new year holiday that confirms investors' hopes for a speedy recovery...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 20th): Haier Smart Home, Weichai Power, Fuyao Glass, China Shenhua

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Haier Smart Home, Weichai Power, Fuyao Glass, China Shenhua.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (Jan 20th): $7.1bn Inflows Before CNY

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Kweichow Moutai, Contemporary Amperex Technology,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Short Interest Weekly: Ping An, Li Ning, Icbc, Jiumaojiu

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 13th and highlight short interest changes in Ping An, Li Ning, Icbc,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Financials Weekly: Jan 30 | A Bubbly Opening

We expect a strong start to the week for the China financials space, after a new year holiday that confirms investors' hopes for a speedy recovery...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 20th): Haier Smart Home, Weichai Power, Fuyao Glass, China Shenhua

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Haier Smart Home, Weichai Power, Fuyao Glass, China Shenhua.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (Jan 20th): $7.1bn Inflows Before CNY

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Kweichow Moutai, Contemporary Amperex Technology,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Short Interest Weekly: Ping An, Li Ning, Icbc, Jiumaojiu

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 13th and highlight short interest changes in Ping An, Li Ning, Icbc,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Life (2628 HK): Rally to Top Out at HKD19/Share as Credit Risks Loom Large

China Life has been a star as investors embrace the reopening trade. We believe the rally still has legs, but as the dust settles, it may remain a...

Stanley Tsai, CFA