Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<div>Kakao Pay (KP), one of South Korea’s largest payment and financial services apps, raised US$1.3bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao held a 55% stake prior to listing, with Ant Financial holding the balance 45% stake.</div><div>We have covered most aspects of the deal in our earlier notes:</div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-pay-ipo-guided-by-ant-financial-to-be-a-mini-ant" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Pay IPO - Guided by Ant Financial to be a mini Ant,</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-pay-ipo-peer-comparison-local-and-international" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Pay IPO - Peer comparison - local and international, and</a></li>
</ul></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-pay-ipo-valuation-and-likely-impact-of-latest-announcement" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Pay IPO - Valuation and Likely Impact of Latest Announcement</a></li></ul></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-pay-ipo-low-end-still-appear-reasonable-but-stock-will-more-likely-be-driven-by-sentiment" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Pay IPO - Low-End Still Appear Reasonable but Stock Will More Likely Be Driven by Sentiment</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-pay-ipo-comparison-with-kakao-bank-and-an-alternate-look-at-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Pay IPO - Comparison with Kakao Bank and an Alternate Look at Valuation</a></li>
</ul></div>In this note, we will talk about the deal's trading dynamics.

Kakao Pay (KP), one of South Korea’s largest payment and financial services apps, raised US$1.3bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao held a 55% stake prior to listing, with Ant Financial holding the balance 45% stake.We have covered most aspects of the deal in our earlier notes:
Kakao Pay IPO - Guided by Ant Financial to be a mini Ant,
Kakao Pay IPO - Peer comparison - local and international, and
Kakao Pay IPO - Valuation and Likely Impact of Latest Announcement
Kakao Pay IPO - Low-End Still Appear Reasonable but Stock Will More Likely Be Driven by Sentiment
Kakao Pay IPO - Comparison with Kakao Bank and an Alternate Look at Valuation
In this note, we will talk about the deal's trading dynamics.

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

China Pacific Insurance / Equity Bottom-Up

*Weak 3Q21 Results: China Pacific Insurance (2601.HK) (CPIC) reported 3Q21 results of CNY 5.4 bn, declining CNY 3.4 bn (38.5%) linked quarter. Profitability was hurt by both the Life and P&amp;C units, which declined CNY 3.9 bn (52.4%) and CNY 156 mn (10.6%), respectively, to CNY 3.6 bn and CNY 1.3 bn; and*Troubles Continue In Life: During 3Q21, first year premium (FYP) agent per month declined by 41.0% linked quarter largely due to CPIC relying more on online channels to conduct new sales, and intimating agency distribution remained a challenge.The new CEO of CPIC Life mentioned that a new agency restructure will be implemented beginning January 1, 2022.

*Weak 3Q21 Results: China Pacific Insurance (2601.HK) (CPIC) reported 3Q21 results of CNY 5.4 bn, declining CNY 3.4 bn (38.5%) linked quarter. Profitability was hurt by both the Life and P&amp;C units, which declined CNY 3.9 bn (52.4%) and CNY 156 mn (10.6%), respectively, to CNY 3.6 bn and CNY 1.3 bn; and*Troubles Continue In Life: During 3Q21, first year premium (FYP) agent per month declined by 41.0% linked quarter largely due to CPIC relying more on online channels to conduct new sales, and intimating agency distribution remained a challenge.The new CEO of CPIC Life mentioned that a new agency restructure will be implemented beginning January 1, 2022.

China Pacific Insurance – Life Troubles

ANE, an express freight network operator in China for less-than-truckload (LTL) market, aims to raise around US$174m in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed by a host of financial investors including Centurium, Carlyle, CDH, CPE, NWS, Ping An, Goldman Sachs and Yili.As per iResearch, ANE’s network was the largest in China in terms of total freight volume over 2017-20 with a market share of 17.2% in 2020.By Dec 2020, it had collaborated with approximately 26,400 freight partners and agents to serve 3.6m shippers across approximately 96% of the counties and townships in China. Both the freight partners and freight agents operate under its brand and are required to adhere to its service guidelines and policies. ANE’s overall volume and top line growth has been decent. However, not all of its offerings have been growing, while some of its revenue growth was driven by accounting changes. We covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier notes, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/59814/ANE%20Logistics%20Pre-IPO%20-%20Margins%20Expanding%20but%20Appears%20to%20Be%20Falling%20Behind" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics Pre-IPO - Margins expanding but appears to be falling behind</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ane-logistics-pre-ipo-phip-updates-underlying-growth-is-far-from-clear" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics Pre-IPO - PHIP updates - Underlying growth is far from clear</a>.  In this note, we will talk about updates since our last note and valuations.

ANE, an express freight network operator in China for less-than-truckload (LTL) market, aims to raise around US$174m in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed by a host of financial investors including Centurium, Carlyle, CDH, CPE, NWS, Ping An, Goldman Sachs and Yili.As per iResearch, ANE’s network was the largest in China in terms of total freight volume over 2017-20 with a market share of 17.2% in 2020.By Dec 2020, it had collaborated with approximately 26,400 freight partners and agents to serve 3.6m shippers across approximately 96% of the counties and townships in China. Both the freight partners and freight agents operate under its brand and are required to adhere to its service guidelines and policies. ANE’s overall volume and top line growth has been decent. However, not all of its offerings have been growing, while some of its revenue growth was driven by accounting changes. We covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier notes, ANE Logistics Pre-IPO - Margins expanding but appears to be falling behind and ANE Logistics Pre-IPO - PHIP updates - Underlying growth is far from clear.  In this note, we will talk about updates since our last note and valuations.

ANE Logistics IPO - Weird Disclosures Continue

Postal Savings Bank of China C / Equity Bottom-Up

*Blowout 3Q21 Results: Established in 2007, Postal Savings Bank of China (1658.HK) [PSB], mainland China’s youngest large commercial bank, reported 3Q21 bottom-line results of CNY 23.5 bn – increasing CNY 3.7 bn (18.6%) linked quarter. Much of the improvement at PSB is due to credit leverage, as loss provisions declined CNY 9.3 bn (54.3%); and*Credit Quality Continues Its Positive Turn, But Reserves More Than Adequate: Net new NPLs did increase CNY 7.8 bn or 61.0% annualized versus CNY 14.9 bn or 116.6% at 2Q21. Despite the increase in net new NPLs, it would appear that PSB’s reserves would remain excessive to the tune of CNY 100 bn or about a year of pre-tax profits – begging the question of why not reverse loss reserves?

*Blowout 3Q21 Results: Established in 2007, Postal Savings Bank of China (1658.HK) [PSB], mainland China’s youngest large commercial bank, reported 3Q21 bottom-line results of CNY 23.5 bn – increasing CNY 3.7 bn (18.6%) linked quarter. Much of the improvement at PSB is due to credit leverage, as loss provisions declined CNY 9.3 bn (54.3%); and*Credit Quality Continues Its Positive Turn, But Reserves More Than Adequate: Net new NPLs did increase CNY 7.8 bn or 61.0% annualized versus CNY 14.9 bn or 116.6% at 2Q21. Despite the increase in net new NPLs, it would appear that PSB’s reserves would remain excessive to the tune of CNY 100 bn or about a year of pre-tax profits – begging the question of why not reverse loss reserves?

Postal Savings Bank of China – Reserve Reversals Expected

*Weak Results in Investment and P&amp;C: Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping An] reported 3Q21 results of CNY 23.6 bn, declining CNY 7.1 bn (23.2%) linked quarter.  Much of the struggle this quarter remained Ping An’s investment portfolio – likely a long-term thematic, where the net investment yield plummet 30 bp to 4.4%. Excluding Ping An Bank (000001.CH) [PAB] whose results were completely managed, all other business units disappointed linked quarter; and*Concerns Increase At Bank And With Expansion Plans:  PAB reported 3Q21 results of CNY 11.7 bn. Don’t shoot off the streamers just yet, credit quality was abysmal and Ping An clearly pulled on its bank lever. By our analysis, we find that credit remains incredibly challenged as net new NPLs are now accelerating at Indian bank pace of CNY 12.4 bn or 159.8% annualized.  Assuming that the accelerated credit break in the PAB portfolio continues to remain at its current level, we find that PAB’s reserves remain CNY 19 bn light.

*Weak Results in Investment and P&amp;C: Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping An] reported 3Q21 results of CNY 23.6 bn, declining CNY 7.1 bn (23.2%) linked quarter.  Much of the struggle this quarter remained Ping An’s investment portfolio – likely a long-term thematic, where the net investment yield plummet 30 bp to 4.4%. Excluding Ping An Bank (000001.CH) [PAB] whose results were completely managed, all other business units disappointed linked quarter; and*Concerns Increase At Bank And With Expansion Plans:  PAB reported 3Q21 results of CNY 11.7 bn. Don’t shoot off the streamers just yet, credit quality was abysmal and Ping An clearly pulled on its bank lever. By our analysis, we find that credit remains incredibly challenged as net new NPLs are now accelerating at Indian bank pace of CNY 12.4 bn or 159.8% annualized.  Assuming that the accelerated credit break in the PAB portfolio continues to remain at its current level, we find that PAB’s reserves remain CNY 19 bn light.  

Ping An Insurance – Another Abysmal Result

China

Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China Limited provides products and services through its five ecosystems in financial services, healthcare, auto services, real estate services and Smart City solutions. The Group's insurance business writes property, casualty, and life insurance products.

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Ping An Insurance Group of (601318 CH)

Kakao Pay IPO Trading - Won't Be Chasing

Kakao Pay, one of South Korea’s largest payment and financial services apps, raised around US$1.3bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao held a 55% stake...

Sumeet Singh

China Pacific Insurance – Life Troubles

CHINA PACIFIC: CPIC reported a 3Q21 QOQ results decline of 38.5%, driven by both the Life and P&C units. The new CEO of CPIC Life mentioned that a...

Thomas J. Monaco

ANE Logistics IPO - Weird Disclosures Continue

ANE, an express freight network operator in China for less-than-truckload (LTL) market, aims to raise around US$174m in its Hong Kong IPO. The...

Sumeet Singh

Postal Savings Bank of China – Reserve Reversals Expected

POSTAL SAVINGS BANK: PSB's QOQ 3Q21 increased 18.6%, due largely to credit leverage and net interest income improvement. PSB’s reserves appear...

Thomas J. Monaco

Ping An Insurance – Another Abysmal Result

PING AN: Ping An reported a QOQ 3Q21 results decline of 23.2%, attributed to its investment portfolio. Excluding PAB, whose results were managed,...

Thomas J. Monaco

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