Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

Tongcheng Travel Holdings  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for the HSTECH Index in December 2023.</li>
<li>There could be one ADD and one DELETE for HSTECH in December 2023 but I would treat them as low-conviction changes.</li>
<li>At present, I see one-way flows for the December 2023 rebalance to be around US$250mn but as prices change, our index change and flow expectations will change too.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for the HSTECH Index in December 2023.
There could be one ADD and one DELETE for HSTECH in December 2023 but I would treat them as low-conviction changes.
At present, I see one-way flows for the December 2023 rebalance to be around US$250mn but as prices change, our index change and flow expectations will change too.


Quiddity HSTECH Dec 23 Flow Expectations: One Low-Conviction Change, US$250mn One-Way

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The JPX Nikkei 400 index rebalance will take place on Wednesday, MSIC on Thursday and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSCI on Friday.</li>
<li>There are review cutoffs for the MVIS family of indices, and multiple announcements of changes to various indices during the week.</li>
<li>There were inflows to mainland China ETFs, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-india-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:282:1" rel="noopener">iShares India ETF (INDA)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-india-small-cap" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32064:1" rel="noopener">Ishares India Small-Cap (SMIN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares EmergingMarkets ex China (EMXC)</a> while there were outflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:438:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets (EEM)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The JPX Nikkei 400 index rebalance will take place on Wednesday, MSIC on Thursday and HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSCI on Friday.
There are review cutoffs for the MVIS family of indices, and multiple announcements of changes to various indices during the week.
There were inflows to mainland China ETFs, iShares India ETF (INDA), Ishares India Small-Cap (SMIN) and iShares EmergingMarkets ex China (EMXC) while there were outflows for iShares Emerging Markets (EEM).


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSI, HSTECH, Yuanta ETFs, China ETFs, REMX, KOSPI

<ul>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/east-buy-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27796:1" rel="noopener">East Buy Holding (1797 HK)</a> replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aac-technologies-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6544:1" rel="noopener">AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> at the close on 1 September.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 3.5% leading to a one-way trade of HK$3.4bn (US$435m). There are 4 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Short interest is 15% of float on both stocks. Short covering could take <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/east-buy-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27796:1" rel="noopener">East Buy Holding (1797 HK)</a> higher while providing support for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aac-technologies-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6544:1" rel="noopener">AAC Technologies (2018 HK)</a> closer to deletion.</li>
</ul>


As expected, East Buy Holding (1797 HK) replaces AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK) in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the close on 1 September.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3.5% leading to a one-way trade of HK$3.4bn (US$435m). There are 4 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.
Short interest is 15% of float on both stocks. Short covering could take East Buy Holding (1797 HK) higher while providing support for AAC Technologies (2018 HK) closer to deletion.


HSTECH Index Rebalance: East Buy (1797 HK) Replaces AAC Tech (2018 HK); Big Shorts on Both Stocks

<ul>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-hstech-sep-23-flow-expectations-two-adds-dels-possible" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:104332" rel="noopener">Quiddity HSTECH Sep 23 Flow Expectations: Two ADDs/DELs Possible</a>, I discussed my initial flow expectations and potential index changes for the September 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>The suggested (previous insight) SHORT <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technol" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technol (1833 HK)</a> is down 10.6% vs the hedge <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-health-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29677:1" rel="noopener">JD Health International (6618 HK)</a> in ~1.5 months. </li>
<li>In this insight, I have presented my <em>updated flow expectations</em> and some new trade ideas for the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


In Quiddity HSTECH Sep 23 Flow Expectations: Two ADDs/DELs Possible, I discussed my initial flow expectations and potential index changes for the September 2023 Rebalance.
The suggested (previous insight) SHORT Ping An Healthcare and Technol (1833 HK) is down 10.6% vs the hedge JD Health International (6618 HK) in ~1.5 months. 
In this insight, I have presented my updated flow expectations and some new trade ideas for the next few weeks.


Quiddity HSTECH Sep 23 Flow Expectations Update: Last Trade Sucessful; Some New Trade Ideas

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>HealthyWay cannot rely on drug/product sales to achieve rapid expansion of revenue scale because it hasn't huge user base accumulated on e-commerce platforms like Taobao/JD.com, leading to different business model.</li>
<li>Relying on Baidu's search engine to guide traffic could be worthless, because B-end users would not pay for the traffic that cannot provide added value.HealthyWay hasn't a strong cornerstone business. </li>
<li>HealthyWay’s valuation should be lower than that of ClouDr. Due to the lack of imagination space in business model, it would to some extent suppress the valuation growth of HealthyWay.</li>
</ul>


HealthyWay cannot rely on drug/product sales to achieve rapid expansion of revenue scale because it hasn't huge user base accumulated on e-commerce platforms like Taobao/JD.com, leading to different business model.
Relying on Baidu's search engine to guide traffic could be worthless, because B-end users would not pay for the traffic that cannot provide added value.HealthyWay hasn't a strong cornerstone business. 
HealthyWay’s valuation should be lower than that of ClouDr. Due to the lack of imagination space in business model, it would to some extent suppress the valuation growth of HealthyWay.


Pre-IPO HealthyWay - The Business Model Lacks Core Competitiveness

China

Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited provides health care software solutions. The Company offers mobile platform for online consultation, hospital referral and appointment, health management, and wellness interaction services, as well as connects consumers and patients with health care resources. Ping An Healthcare and Technology serves customers in China.

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)

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Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)

Quiddity HSTECH Dec 23 Flow Expectations: One Low-Conviction Change, US$250mn One-Way

I see Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) as a low-conviction ADD and Ping An Healthcare and Technol (1833 HK) as a low-conviction DEL for HSTECH in...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSI, HSTECH, Yuanta ETFs, China ETFs, REMX, KOSPI

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

HSTECH Index Rebalance: East Buy (1797 HK) Replaces AAC Tech (2018 HK); Big Shorts on Both Stocks

East Buy (1797) replaces AAC Tech (2018) in the HSTECH in Sep. Two-way turnover is 7% and the round-trip trade is US$870m. There are big shorts on...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity HSTECH Sep 23 Flow Expectations Update: Last Trade Sucessful; Some New Trade Ideas

The HSTECH Sep 23 index changes could be announced after the close on Friday 18th August 2023. I expect two ADDs and two DELs during the Sep 23...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pre-IPO HealthyWay - The Business Model Lacks Core Competitiveness

HealthyWay's model is essentially an intermediary business.The seemingly abundant resources may not necessarily transform into substantial revenue...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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