IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Medlive Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medlive-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32985:1" rel="noopener">Medlive Technology (MLT HK)</a> is the largest online professional physician platform in China as measured by the number of registered physician users as of 31 December 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Medlive derives most of its revenue from providing solutions that facilitate healthcare marketing to physicians. Medlive ranked first among physician platform-based digital healthcare marketing service providers in China as measured by revenue in 2020, with a 21.4% market share, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Medlive is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise around $500 million, according to press reports.</p><p>Medlive is a JV between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a> and Tiantian, each with 50% stakes. Medlive has been a consolidated subsidiary of M3, with M3 holding the right to nominate the majority of Medlive directors, but M3 will forego this right upon Medlive's listing. Also, upon listing, M3 will be deconsolidated (equity-method affiliate) from M3 financials. </p><p>Digital healthcare marketing service providers focus on various aspects of the digital healthcare marketing market and have competitive advantages in different areas. For example, internet hospitals and pharmaceutical e-commerce platforms, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-health-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29677:1" rel="noopener">JD Health (6618 HK)</a>, have large consumer user bases for advertising and selling non-prescription drugs. Medlive believes that it can compete with these players for a slice of healthcare companies’ marketing budgets due to its large and engaged physician user base, which enables it to reach a wider group of physicians more efficiently and achieve a better return on marketing spending. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Medlive has strong fundamentals due to fast-paced revenue growth, rising margin and strong cash generation. Overall, we believe that the Medlive IPO is worth a look. </p></div><p><strong><em>For readers interested in IPOs of upcoming healthtech companies, we highlight:</em></strong> </p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/linkdoc-technology-ipo-initiation-building-with-big-data" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53384" rel="noopener">LinkDoc Technology IPO Initiation: Building with Big Data</a> </p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/we-doctor-ipo-initiation-patient-revolution" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50009" rel="noopener">We Doctor IPO Initiation: Patient Revolution</a> </p>

Medlive Technology (MLT HK) is the largest online professional physician platform in China as measured by the number of registered physician users as of 31 December 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Medlive derives most of its revenue from providing solutions that facilitate healthcare marketing to physicians. Medlive ranked first among physician platform-based digital healthcare marketing service providers in China as measured by revenue in 2020, with a 21.4% market share, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Medlive is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise around $500 million, according to press reports.Medlive is a JV between M3 Inc (2413 JP) and Tiantian, each with 50% stakes. Medlive has been a consolidated subsidiary of M3, with M3 holding the right to nominate the majority of Medlive directors, but M3 will forego this right upon Medlive's listing. Also, upon listing, M3 will be deconsolidated (equity-method affiliate) from M3 financials. Digital healthcare marketing service providers focus on various aspects of the digital healthcare marketing market and have competitive advantages in different areas. For example, internet hospitals and pharmaceutical e-commerce platforms, such as Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK) and JD Health (6618 HK), have large consumer user bases for advertising and selling non-prescription drugs. Medlive believes that it can compete with these players for a slice of healthcare companies’ marketing budgets due to its large and engaged physician user base, which enables it to reach a wider group of physicians more efficiently and achieve a better return on marketing spending. Medlive has strong fundamentals due to fast-paced revenue growth, rising margin and strong cash generation. Overall, we believe that the Medlive IPO is worth a look. For readers interested in IPOs of upcoming healthtech companies, we highlight: LinkDoc Technology IPO Initiation: Building with Big Data We Doctor IPO Initiation: Patient Revolution 

Medlive Technology IPO Initiation: What's Up, Doc?

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong><em>*New IPO Disappoints Right Out Of Gate: </em></strong>Waterdrop (WDH.US) [Waterdrop] provides an online insurance marketplace and related medical crowdfunding platform in mainland China. Waterdrop  reported its first set of earnings results since its IPO, coming in at a negative CNY 370.2 bn for 1Q21, declining CNY 249.4 (206.6%) YOY largely given its higher costs from a channel (third party traffic) and product mix shift to long-term insurance. Both factors have caused operating costs to increase CNY 579.1 bn (75.7%) YOY  - far outpacing revenue growth of CNY 229.6 bn (35.1%) over the period; and  </p><p><strong><em>*All Is Not Lost…Yet: </em></strong>First year premium (FYP) did increase 42.7% YOY – led by costly third party FYP which increased 51.6%. Long-term critical illness insurance grew 132% off of a low base, but still well exceeding industry average. Anecdotally, management believes that competitive pressures appear to be abating and that increases in customer acquisition costs is now decelerating. In addition, Waterdrop continues to make progress with: Waterdrop Health; Waterdrop Medicine; and with outpatient services.</p>

*New IPO Disappoints Right Out Of Gate: Waterdrop (WDH.US) [Waterdrop] provides an online insurance marketplace and related medical crowdfunding platform in mainland China. Waterdrop  reported its first set of earnings results since its IPO, coming in at a negative CNY 370.2 bn for 1Q21, declining CNY 249.4 (206.6%) YOY largely given its higher costs from a channel (third party traffic) and product mix shift to long-term insurance. Both factors have caused operating costs to increase CNY 579.1 bn (75.7%) YOY  - far outpacing revenue growth of CNY 229.6 bn (35.1%) over the period; and  *All Is Not Lost…Yet: First year premium (FYP) did increase 42.7% YOY – led by costly third party FYP which increased 51.6%. Long-term critical illness insurance grew 132% off of a low base, but still well exceeding industry average. Anecdotally, management believes that competitive pressures appear to be abating and that increases in customer acquisition costs is now decelerating. In addition, Waterdrop continues to make progress with: Waterdrop Health; Waterdrop Medicine; and with outpatient services.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/linkdoc-technology-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33499:1" rel="noopener">LinkDoc (LDOC US)</a> is a Chinese healthtech company. LinkDoc consists of <em>LinkCare</em>, a digital care platform for patients with critical diseases, <em>LinkData</em>, an AI-enabled curation system for longitudinal medical data, and <em>LinkSolutions</em>, a data-driven precision life sciences solution platform that helps life sciences companies accelerate clinical research and real-world adoption</p><p>LinkDoc is backed by Temasek (11.7% of outstanding shares), NEA Partners (10.2%), China Broadband Capital (9.2%), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-health-information-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:453:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK)</a> (8.4%) and MBK Partners (6.3%). LinkDoc is pre-marketing a Nasdaq IPO to raise as much as $500 million, according to press reports.</p><p>LinkDoc is a play on China’s healthcare industry rising spend on IT and data services. In China, oncology has the highest growth in healthcare spend among all therapeutic areas as China has the world’s largest oncology patient pool. Big data solutions adoption has been one of the key trends of realising value from large data troves and oncology has been a major part of the healthcare big data market.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>LinkDoc focuses on oncology and has established the largest online oncology physician and patient engagement community in China. LinkDoc is benefiting from these trends by delivering solid growth and steadily reducing loss margins. Overall, we believe that LinkDoc is an attractive play on these market dynamics.</p></div>

LinkDoc (LDOC US) is a Chinese healthtech company. LinkDoc consists of LinkCare, a digital care platform for patients with critical diseases, LinkData, an AI-enabled curation system for longitudinal medical data, and LinkSolutions, a data-driven precision life sciences solution platform that helps life sciences companies accelerate clinical research and real-world adoptionLinkDoc is backed by Temasek (11.7% of outstanding shares), NEA Partners (10.2%), China Broadband Capital (9.2%), Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK) (8.4%) and MBK Partners (6.3%). LinkDoc is pre-marketing a Nasdaq IPO to raise as much as $500 million, according to press reports.LinkDoc is a play on China’s healthcare industry rising spend on IT and data services. In China, oncology has the highest growth in healthcare spend among all therapeutic areas as China has the world’s largest oncology patient pool. Big data solutions adoption has been one of the key trends of realising value from large data troves and oncology has been a major part of the healthcare big data market.LinkDoc focuses on oncology and has established the largest online oncology physician and patient engagement community in China. LinkDoc is benefiting from these trends by delivering solid growth and steadily reducing loss margins. Overall, we believe that LinkDoc is an attractive play on these market dynamics.

LinkDoc Technology IPO Initiation: Building with Big Data

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<div>Our base case value of Waterdrop is $4.6 billion or $11 per share. This is essentially at the mid-point of the IPO valuation range. Given the limited upside, we would pass on this IPO deal.</div><div></div><div>Our valuation of $4.6 billion is based on EV/S multiple of 5.8x using our estimated sales of $670 million (4.3 billion RMB) in 2021. Our EV/S multiple of 5.8x is based on the median valuation multiple of our comparable companies in 2021. This valuation multiple is also close to the average EV/S multiple of 6.1x for the two China online insurance/healthcare related stocks including ZhongAn Online P&amp;C insurance and Ping An Good Doctor. According to our valuation sensitivity analysis, the IPO valuation ranges from $8.4 per share to $13.9 per share. </div><div></div><div>Given that the mutual aid platform has been one of the key generators of user traffic, discontinuing this operation would result in a major change in the company's business operations and its ability to generate sufficient sales and customers growth. As such, we believe this is a major risk factor for the company. </div>

Our base case value of Waterdrop is $4.6 billion or $11 per share. This is essentially at the mid-point of the IPO valuation range. Given the limited upside, we would pass on this IPO deal.Our valuation of $4.6 billion is based on EV/S multiple of 5.8x using our estimated sales of $670 million (4.3 billion RMB) in 2021. Our EV/S multiple of 5.8x is based on the median valuation multiple of our comparable companies in 2021. This valuation multiple is also close to the average EV/S multiple of 6.1x for the two China online insurance/healthcare related stocks including ZhongAn Online P&amp;C insurance and Ping An Good Doctor. According to our valuation sensitivity analysis, the IPO valuation ranges from $8.4 per share to $13.9 per share. Given that the mutual aid platform has been one of the key generators of user traffic, discontinuing this operation would result in a major change in the company's business operations and its ability to generate sufficient sales and customers growth. As such, we believe this is a major risk factor for the company. 

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/waterdrop-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33018:1" rel="noopener">Waterdrop Inc (WDH US)</a>, a technology platform for insurance and healthcare services in China, aims to raise up to US$360m in its US IPO. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> owned 22.1% and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swiss-re-ag-1f83dcbc-730e-46fa-82f2-bfe7e8e361a1" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27914:1" rel="noopener">Swiss Re AG (SREN SW)</a> owned 5.7% of the company prior to its listing.</p></div><div><p>In our previous note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/waterdrop-pre-ipo-the-positives-fast-growth-strong-backers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Waterdrop Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth, Strong Backers</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/waterdrop-pre-ipo-the-negatives-scandals-shutdowns-competing-with-giants-regulation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Waterdrop Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Scandals, Shutdowns, Competing with Giants, Regulation</a> we spoke about the positive and negative aspects of the deal. </p></div><div><p>In this note, we’ll run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about valuations.</p></div>

Waterdrop Inc (WDH US), a technology platform for insurance and healthcare services in China, aims to raise up to US$360m in its US IPO. Tencent Holdings (700 HK) owned 22.1% and Swiss Re AG (SREN SW) owned 5.7% of the company prior to its listing.In our previous note, Waterdrop Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth, Strong Backers, and Waterdrop Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Scandals, Shutdowns, Competing with Giants, Regulation we spoke about the positive and negative aspects of the deal. In this note, we’ll run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about valuations.

Waterdrop IPO - Valuation Has Nearly Tripled over the past Year

China

Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited provides health care software solutions. The Company offers mobile platform for online consultation, hospital referral and appointment, health management, and wellness interaction services, as well as connects consumers and patients with health care resources. Ping An Healthcare and Technology serves customers in China.

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Ping An Healthcare and Technol (1833 HK)

Medlive Technology IPO Initiation: What's Up, Doc?

Medlive is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise around $500 million, according to press reports. The fundamentals are strong due to fast-paced...

Arun George

Waterdrop – Water Fall

WATERDROP: Waterdrop reported its first set of earnings results since its IPO, declining 206.6% YOY largely due to higher costs from a channel and...

Thomas J. Monaco

LinkDoc Technology IPO Initiation: Building with Big Data

LinkDoc is pre-marketing a Nasdaq IPO to raise as much as $500 million, according to press reports. Overall, we believe that LinkDoc’s fundamentals...

Arun George

Waterdrop IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case value of Waterdrop is $4.6 billion or $11 per share. This is essentially at the mid-point of the IPO valuation range. Given the...

Douglas Kim

Waterdrop IPO - Valuation Has Nearly Tripled over the past Year

Waterdrop, a technology platform for insurance and healthcare services in China, aims to raise up to US$360m in its US IPO. Tencent owned 22.1% and...

Sumeet Singh

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