Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>At the December rebalance, we expect changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>. Announcement is on 2 December with implementation on 16 December.</li>
<li>If added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>, passive trackers will need to buy over 9 days of ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monadelphous-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:553:1" rel="noopener">Monadelphous (MND AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ioneer-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10264:1" rel="noopener">ioneer Ltd (INR AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Shorts have dropped on nearly all potential adds and deletes over the last couple of months. With shorts at low levels, short covering will have limited impact at the rebalance.</li>
</ul>


At the December rebalance, we expect changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). Announcement is on 2 December with implementation on 16 December.
If added to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX), passive trackers will need to buy over 9 days of ADV on Monadelphous (MND AU) and ioneer Ltd (INR AU).
Shorts have dropped on nearly all potential adds and deletes over the last couple of months. With shorts at low levels, short covering will have limited impact at the rebalance.


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Few High Impact Adds

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The only way that noisy shareholders in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> can be eliminated, allowing management and employees to focus on "making Toshiba stronger" is to arrange a privatisation. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> approached <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> with a bid of A$25/share. Oz very quickly rejected. There are hints now that A$30 may be the price.   </li>
<li>After 23 months of negotiations with various parties, culminating in a protracted on-again, off-again, negotiation with Dye &amp; Durham, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> is now without an Offer.</li>
</ul>


The only way that noisy shareholders in Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) can be eliminated, allowing management and employees to focus on "making Toshiba stronger" is to arrange a privatisation. 

BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) approached OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) with a bid of A$25/share. Oz very quickly rejected. There are hints now that A$30 may be the price.   
After 23 months of negotiations with various parties, culminating in a protracted on-again, off-again, negotiation with Dye &amp; Durham, Link Administration (LNK AU) is now without an Offer.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Oz Minerals, Link Admin, Sands China

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for S&amp;P ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the December 2022 Rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tassal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16234:1" rel="noopener">Tassal (TGR AU)</a>  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nearmap-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5142:1" rel="noopener">Nearmap Ltd (NEA AU)</a> could get deleted from ASX200 before the December Rebalance, triggering high-impact intra-review additions. There should be two changes in the Review itself.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pilbara-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)</a> is close to becoming an ASX 50 ADD and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lendlease-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11248:1" rel="noopener">Lendlease Group (LLC AU)</a> is close to becoming an ASX 50 DEL in the December 2022 review.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for S&amp;P ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the December 2022 Rebalance.

Tassal (TGR AU)  and Nearmap Ltd (NEA AU) could get deleted from ASX200 before the December Rebalance, triggering high-impact intra-review additions. There should be two changes in the Review itself.

Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) is close to becoming an ASX 50 ADD and Lendlease Group (LLC AU) is close to becoming an ASX 50 DEL in the December 2022 review.


S&P/​​​​​​ASX Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Couple of High-Impact Intra-Review Changes Possible

Australian Strategic Materials / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sierra-rutile-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36235:1" rel="noopener">Sierra Rutile Holdings (SRX AU)</a> is a high probability delete from the index, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australian-strategic-materials" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30815:1" rel="noopener">Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU)</a> is close to the deletion threshold.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sayona-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1589:1" rel="noopener">Sayona Mining (SYA AU)</a> is the highest ranked non-constituent while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tianqi-lithium-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27789:1" rel="noopener">Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK)</a> only makes inclusion at the entire IPO raise.</li>
<li>Deletion from the index will require passive trackers to sell over 5 days of ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australian-strategic-materials" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30815:1" rel="noopener">Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Sierra Rutile Holdings (SRX AU) is a high probability delete from the index, while Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU) is close to the deletion threshold.

Sayona Mining (SYA AU) is the highest ranked non-constituent while Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) only makes inclusion at the entire IPO raise.
Deletion from the index will require passive trackers to sell over 5 days of ADV on Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU). 


MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Potential Deletes

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global rare earth/strategic metals stocks are breaking out of bases, giving us a high degree of confidence that price and RS appreciation is likely to continue.</li>
<li>Looking at the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX-US), it remains topside an 8-year base and displays a bullish inflection after consolidating for 8.5 months.</li>
<li>Buying: MP Materials (MP-US), Lithium Americas (LAC-US, LAC-CA), Livent (LTHM-US), AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group (AMG-NL), Pilbara Minerals (PLS-AU), Liontown Resources (LTR-AU), AVZ Minerals (AVZ-AU), and Standard Lithium (SLI-CA)</li>
</ul>


Global rare earth/strategic metals stocks are breaking out of bases, giving us a high degree of confidence that price and RS appreciation is likely to continue.
Looking at the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX-US), it remains topside an 8-year base and displays a bullish inflection after consolidating for 8.5 months.
Buying: MP Materials (MP-US), Lithium Americas (LAC-US, LAC-CA), Livent (LTHM-US), AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group (AMG-NL), Pilbara Minerals (PLS-AU), Liontown Resources (LTR-AU), AVZ Minerals (AVZ-AU), and Standard Lithium (SLI-CA)


Buying Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Stocks: MP, LAC, LTHM, AMG-NL, PLS-AU, LTR-AU, AVZ-AU, SLI-CA

Australia

Pilbara Minerals Ltd. is a mineral exploration company. The Company owns mineral tenements in the west Pilbara region of Western Australia where it explores for iron ore, gold and base metals, particularly copper and nickel.

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Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Few High Impact Adds

There could be two changes each for the ASX50 and ASX200 indices in December. There is a large impact expected on a couple of the adds while short...

Brian Freitas

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Oz Minerals, Link Admin, Sands China

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

S&P/ASX Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Couple of High-Impact Intra-Review Changes Possible

The list of names leading the race to become intra-review ASX 200 additions seems interesting. If M&A events cause ASX 200 deletions, some of these...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Potential Deletes

Sierra Rutile is a high probability delete from the REMX in September. There is a possibility that ASM is deleted too. There is flow on the other...

Brian Freitas

Buying Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Stocks: MP, LAC, LTHM, AMG-NL, PLS-AU, LTR-AU, AVZ-AU, SLI-CA

Global rare earth/strategic metals stocks are breaking out of bases, and we expect price and RS appreciation to continue. This also provides us...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Few High Impact Adds

There could be two changes each for the ASX50 and ASX200 indices in December. There is a large impact expected on a couple of the adds while short...

Brian Freitas

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Oz Minerals, Link Admin, Sands China

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

S&P/​​​​​​ASX Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Couple of High-Impact Intra-Review Changes Possible

The list of names leading the race to become intra-review ASX 200 additions seems interesting. If M&A events cause ASX 200 deletions, some of these...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Potential Deletes

Sierra Rutile is a high probability delete from the REMX in September. There is a possibility that ASM is deleted too. There is flow on the other...

Brian Freitas

Buying Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Stocks: MP, LAC, LTHM, AMG-NL, PLS-AU, LTR-AU, AVZ-AU, SLI-CA

Global rare earth/strategic metals stocks are breaking out of bases, and we expect price and RS appreciation to continue. This also provides us...

Vermilion Research

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Few High Impact Adds

S&P/ASX Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Couple of High-Impact Intra-Review Changes Possible

MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Potential Deletes