Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

PICC Property & Casualty H / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>The index changes and indicative weights for the September 2024 index rebal event is expected to be announced after market close on Friday 16th August 2024.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our latest expectations for capping flows based on current prices.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
The index changes and indicative weights for the September 2024 index rebal event is expected to be announced after market close on Friday 16th August 2024.
In this insight, we take a look at our latest expectations for capping flows based on current prices.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Announcement Soon; Updated Flow Expectations and Trade Idea

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The new excitement of the MS&amp;AD story is the company's commitment to sell down all of its cross-shareholdings and to use proceeds to fund growth and dividends. </li>
<li>ROE is already far higher now than in recent years, and this can continue with rising dividends. </li>
<li>Monthly insurance sales figures give a good window on the core business, with growth rates in May YoY and YTD accelerating.</li>
</ul>


The new excitement of the MS&amp;AD story is the company's commitment to sell down all of its cross-shareholdings and to use proceeds to fund growth and dividends. 
ROE is already far higher now than in recent years, and this can continue with rising dividends. 
Monthly insurance sales figures give a good window on the core business, with growth rates in May YoY and YTD accelerating.


MS&AD Insurance - Sell Stocks to Zero; Drive Growth, Dividends. HFD on Policy Sales, Accelerating

Fintech & EM-focused Analyst, KT Capital Group

Alec Tseung

Fintech & EM-focused Analyst

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

PICC Property & Casualty H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The insurance sector should definitely warrant more investor attention going forward as some insurance names in the region have had a very strong year in 2022.</li>
<li>Two key markets we view positively in 2023 are China's P&amp;C and Korea's L&amp;H insurance markets, given their favorable industry catalysts and tailwinds. </li>
<li>Among all the insurance stocks in these two markets, we believe PICC P&amp;C and Samsung Life will continue to have an exciting year ahead.</li>
</ul>


The insurance sector should definitely warrant more investor attention going forward as some insurance names in the region have had a very strong year in 2022.
Two key markets we view positively in 2023 are China's P&amp;C and Korea's L&amp;H insurance markets, given their favorable industry catalysts and tailwinds. 
Among all the insurance stocks in these two markets, we believe PICC P&amp;C and Samsung Life will continue to have an exciting year ahead.


APAC Insurers Series (#1): A Hidden Gem in This Bear Market?

<ul>
<li>China's motor insurance has been showing signs of growth after years of decline due to deregulations and reforms in the sector.</li>
<li>Motor insurance tailwind will benefit large players the most. Bullish on PICC P&amp;C since it's the largest player in motor insurance and to likely benefit the most from the tailwind.</li>
<li>Bearish on CPIC since its P&amp;C business is much smaller than PICC P&amp;C and Ping An P&amp;C, while its L&amp;H growth continues to be under pressure.  </li>
</ul>


China's motor insurance has been showing signs of growth after years of decline due to deregulations and reforms in the sector.
Motor insurance tailwind will benefit large players the most. Bullish on PICC P&amp;C since it's the largest player in motor insurance and to likely benefit the most from the tailwind.
Bearish on CPIC since its P&amp;C business is much smaller than PICC P&amp;C and Ping An P&amp;C, while its L&amp;H growth continues to be under pressure.  


Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Though Sentiment Fragile for Both.</li>
<li>Energy sector shows signs of a turnaround from long-term decline, whilst Financials remain unloved by China investors.</li>
<li>Real Estate allocations have hit record lows, with average holdings at just 2.93%, while Consumer Discretionary sector approaches all-time highs.</li>
</ul>


Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Though Sentiment Fragile for Both.
Energy sector shows signs of a turnaround from long-term decline, whilst Financials remain unloved by China investors.
Real Estate allocations have hit record lows, with average holdings at just 2.93%, while Consumer Discretionary sector approaches all-time highs.


China

PICC Property and Casualty Company Limited provides insurance services. The Company provides property loss insurances, liability insurances, credit insurances, accidental injury insurances, short term health insurances, guarantee insurances, and other insurance products. PICC Property and Casualty also operates investment businesses.

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PICC Property & Casualty H (2328 HK)

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Announcement Soon; Updated Flow Expectations and Trade Idea

We expect PICC Property (2328 HK) and New Oriental Education (9901 HK) to be added and JD Logistics (2618 HK) and Sensetime (20 HK) to be deleted....

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

MS&AD Insurance - Sell Stocks to Zero; Drive Growth, Dividends. HFD on Policy Sales, Accelerating

MS&AD commits to sell down its cross-shareholding to zero, proceeds to fund growth, dividends. Core insurance sales improving, with April and May...

Daniel Tabbush

APAC Insurers Series (#1): A Hidden Gem in This Bear Market?

China P&C and Korea L&H are two insurance markets in Asia that we view positively in 2023, thanks to the continued catalysts. PICC P&C and Samsung...

Alec Tseung

China Insurance: PICC P&C Vs. CPIC

Bullish on PICC P&C outlook as it's expected to benefit the most from China's motor insurance recovery. Bearish on CPIC's because its P&C is much...

Alec Tseung

China Macro: Sector Positioning Update

Sector positioning among active China Funds. Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Energy shows signs of a turnaround, whilst...

Steven Holden

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