Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This paper contrasts performance of integrated oil exploration and refining firms ("Explorers") with oil refineries ("Refiners").</li>
<li>Hypothesis is that Refiners outperform Explorers when the crack spread widens. Back testing based on select firms proves the hypothesis.</li>
<li>This paper posits that Refiners will outdo Explorers when crack spreads tear based on historical performance.</li>
</ul>


This paper contrasts performance of integrated oil exploration and refining firms ("Explorers") with oil refineries ("Refiners").
Hypothesis is that Refiners outperform Explorers when the crack spread widens. Back testing based on select firms proves the hypothesis.
This paper posits that Refiners will outdo Explorers when crack spreads tear based on historical performance.


Widening Crack Spreads Enable Oil Refiners to Outdo Oil Explorers

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100) remain bullish, finding support at their respective 20-day MAs since November 2023, and we remain bullish</li>
<li>The question is whether that will continue to be the case. Concerns are rising Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar (DXY), which have broken above short-term resistance levels on Feb13</li>
<li>Friday's PPI report should provide more clarity as to how concerned we should be about rising inflation</li>
</ul>


Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100) remain bullish, finding support at their respective 20-day MAs since November 2023, and we remain bullish
The question is whether that will continue to be the case. Concerns are rising Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar (DXY), which have broken above short-term resistance levels on Feb13
Friday's PPI report should provide more clarity as to how concerned we should be about rising inflation


S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing 20-Day MAs; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Critical 4.35% Resistance

Dow Jones Industrial Average / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We still believe it's possible we've seen the lows for this pause/pullback on the SPX, and we see low probability of meaningful correction if SPX is above 4300-4325 (1.5-year support).</li>
<li>As initially discussed in our 8/29/23 Compass, we wouldn't be surprised to see another month+ (i.e., through the end of September, and possibly longer) of consolidation between 4325 and 4600.</li>
<li>Downgrading Industrials (XLI) to market weight due to 1.5+ year RS uptrend violation. Buys highlighted in Uranium and Energy (refiners and coal).</li>
</ul>


We still believe it's possible we've seen the lows for this pause/pullback on the SPX, and we see low probability of meaningful correction if SPX is above 4300-4325 (1.5-year support).
As initially discussed in our 8/29/23 Compass, we wouldn't be surprised to see another month+ (i.e., through the end of September, and possibly longer) of consolidation between 4325 and 4600.
Downgrading Industrials (XLI) to market weight due to 1.5+ year RS uptrend violation. Buys highlighted in Uranium and Energy (refiners and coal).


Downgrading Industrials to Market Weight; Major Supports Holding; Buys in Uranium and Refiners

Financial Select Sector SPDR F / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Fitch's U.S. credit downgrade has done little to change the intermediate-term trend; we continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for the major equity indexes.</li>
<li>We remain bullish on the S&amp;P 500, and we expect to see support at its 50-day MA moving forward (currently 4415).</li>
<li>Short term supports we are watching include 4460-4475 on the S&amp;P 500, $371.50 on the $QQQ, and $190-193 on the $IWM.</li>
</ul>


Fitch's U.S. credit downgrade has done little to change the intermediate-term trend; we continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for the major equity indexes.
We remain bullish on the S&amp;P 500, and we expect to see support at its 50-day MA moving forward (currently 4415).
Short term supports we are watching include 4460-4475 on the S&amp;P 500, $371.50 on the $QQQ, and $190-193 on the $IWM.


Upgrading Financials to Market Weight; Shift to Value Continues. Buys in Energy, Financials, Mfg.

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Phillips 66 had a disappointing quarter failing to meet Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.</li><li>The management managed to strengthen their financial position by retiring debt and resuming their share repurchase program with their cash flow production.</li><li>After completion, the management anticipates having an 87% economic interest in DCP Midstream by the second quarter of 2023.</li></ul>

Phillips 66 had a disappointing quarter failing to meet Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.The management managed to strengthen their financial position by retiring debt and resuming their share repurchase program with their cash flow production.After completion, the management anticipates having an 87% economic interest in DCP Midstream by the second quarter of 2023.

Phillips 66: Expansion Of The NGL Value Chain – Key Drivers

United States

Phillips 66 is a downstream energy company.  The Company's operations include oil refining, marketing and transportation.  Phillips 66's operations also include chemical manufacturing and power generation.

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Phillips 66 (PSX US)

Widening Crack Spreads Enable Oil Refiners to Outdo Oil Explorers

Pure play crude oil refining and marketing firms outperformed integrated oil E&P companies during times of widening crack oil spreads.

Mint Finance

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing 20-Day MAs; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Critical 4.35% Resistance

$SPX and Nasdaq 100 $QQQ testing 20-day MAs (support since November); We remain bullish, but can't rule out a pullback to 4800-4850 on SPX; 10-Yr...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Industrials to Market Weight; Major Supports Holding; Buys in Uranium and Refiners

Downgrading Industrials/Manufacturing $XLI to market weight. Still see low probability of a meaningful correction if the $SPX is above 4300-4325....

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Financials to Market Weight; Shift to Value Continues. Buys in Energy, Financials, Mfg.

Upgrading Financials $XLF to Market Weight; The Shift to Value Continues. Short term supports we are watching include 4460-4475 on the $SPX,...

Vermilion Research

Phillips 66: Expansion Of The NGL Value Chain – Key Drivers

Phillips 66 had a disappointing quarter failing to meet Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings. The management managed...

Baptista Research

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