Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Areit (AyalaLand REIT) / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ayala-land-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:131:1" rel="noopener">Ayala Land Inc (ALI PM)</a> aims to raise around US$121m via selling around 11% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/areit-ayalaland-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28856:1" rel="noopener">Areit (AyalaLand REIT) (AREIT PM)</a>.</li>
<li>Ayala Land and AREIT have been moving towards concluding an asset for shares swap that had been in the works for a while. This placement appears to stem from that.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Ayala Land Inc (ALI PM) aims to raise around US$121m via selling around 11% of Areit (AyalaLand REIT) (AREIT PM).
Ayala Land and AREIT have been moving towards concluding an asset for shares swap that had been in the works for a while. This placement appears to stem from that.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


AREIT Placement - Parent Is Buying High and Selling Low

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Semirara Mining And Power Corp / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today is the last day of the review period for the August rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>We see a high probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semirara-mining-and-power-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18925:1" rel="noopener">Semirara Mining And Power Corp (SCC PM)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/security-bank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3929:1" rel="noopener">Security Bank (SECB PM)</a> in the index.</li>
<li>Historically, the adds have outperformed the deletes and there has been a pop/drop in the adds/deletes the day after announcement. There is one month to pre-position for the announcement.</li>
</ul>


Today is the last day of the review period for the August rebalance of the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX). 
We see a high probability of Semirara Mining And Power Corp (SCC PM) replacing Security Bank (SECB PM) in the index.
Historically, the adds have outperformed the deletes and there has been a pop/drop in the adds/deletes the day after announcement. There is one month to pre-position for the announcement.


PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview: SCC Likely Replaces SECB

Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia), SCCM Asia Research

SCCM Asia Research

Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

Headquartered in Singapore, SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia) is an investment bank focusing on emerging growth companies across Asia, providing a full suite of investment banking services, including corporate finance, mergers and acquisitions advisory, equity capital markets, institutional equities sales and trading and equities research.

SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10934" rel="noopener">ESR-REIT (EREIT SP)</a> to undertake a BTS redevelopment work at 21B Senoko Loop</li><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dasin-retail-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23743" rel="noopener">Dasin Retail Trust (DASIN SP)</a> auditor flags material uncertainty, raising doubts on ability as a going concern</li><li>Ascott targets to sign 150 lyf Co-living properties by 2030</li></ul>

ESR-REIT (EREIT SP) to undertake a BTS redevelopment work at 21B Senoko LoopDasin Retail Trust (DASIN SP) auditor flags material uncertainty, raising doubts on ability as a going concernAscott targets to sign 150 lyf Co-living properties by 2030

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (12Apr22) - EREIT BTS Redevelopment at 21B Senoko Loop

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>* BDO Unibank (BDO.PM) [BDO] reported 4Q21net income of PHP 11.0 bn, a PHP 1.0 bn (10.0%) linked quarter increase, driven by surprisingly positive operating jaws; </li>
<li>The level of net new NPLs declined PHP 319 mn or 1.7% on an annualized basis which is a wonderful turn of events for BDO; and</li>
<li>By our calculation, BDO’s reserves appear fine where they are provided credit quality doesn’t reverse course -suggesting earnings strength on the horizon.</li>
</ul>


* BDO Unibank (BDO.PM) [BDO] reported 4Q21net income of PHP 11.0 bn, a PHP 1.0 bn (10.0%) linked quarter increase, driven by surprisingly positive operating jaws; 
The level of net new NPLs declined PHP 319 mn or 1.7% on an annualized basis which is a wonderful turn of events for BDO; and
By our calculation, BDO’s reserves appear fine where they are provided credit quality doesn’t reverse course -suggesting earnings strength on the horizon.


<ul>
<li>
Another Fraud In The Philippines: Nearly 700 BDO Unibank customers have reported unauthorized account transactions of between PHP 25,000-PHP 50,000 with accounts at UnionBank of the Philippines (UBP PM);</li>
<li>
Small Risk:Assuming that the affected customers are capped at 700, losses from this incident would amount to USD 700,000 – well under 1% of consensus forecasts for 2022; and</li>
<li>
Weak Fundamentals: Net new NPLs increased an alarming PHP 17.8 bn or 115.8% annualized.  BDO’s reserves are light in the neighborhood of PHP 66 bn or six quarters of results.</li>
</ul>



Another Fraud In The Philippines: Nearly 700 BDO Unibank customers have reported unauthorized account transactions of between PHP 25,000-PHP 50,000 with accounts at UnionBank of the Philippines (UBP PM);

Small Risk:Assuming that the affected customers are capped at 700, losses from this incident would amount to USD 700,000 – well under 1% of consensus forecasts for 2022; and

Weak Fundamentals: Net new NPLs increased an alarming PHP 17.8 bn or 115.8% annualized.  BDO’s reserves are light in the neighborhood of PHP 66 bn or six quarters of results.


Philippines

Philippine National Bank, through its subsidiaries, provides commercial bank services. Its products include deposit-taking, lending, bill discounting, foreign exchange dealing, investment banking, and fund transfer. The Company also offers merchant banking, remittance servicing, non-life insurance, leasing, stock brokerage, foreign exchange trading, and related services.

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Philippine National Bank (PNB PM)

AREIT Placement - Parent Is Buying High and Selling Low

Ayala Land Inc (ALI PM) aims to raise around US$121m via selling around 11% of Areit (AyalaLand REIT) (AREIT PM). In this note, we run the deal...

Sumeet Singh

PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview: SCC Likely Replaces SECB

We see Semirara Mining (SCC) replacing Security Bank (SECB) at the August rebalance of the PCOMP Index. Passive trackers will need to buy over 5...

Brian Freitas

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (12Apr22) - EREIT BTS Redevelopment at 21B Senoko Loop

DASIN auditor flags material uncertainty; Ascott targets 150 lyf signing by 2030; CBD office rents rose 1.5% QoQ in 1Q22; AXRB buys Johor logistics

SCCM Asia Research

BDO Unibank – Ready to Run

BDO: BDO reported a QOQ 4Q21net income increase of 10.0%, driven by surprisingly positive operating jaws. Net new NPLs were negative, and reserves...

Thomas J. Monaco

BDO Unibank – Small Hit, Big Problem

BDO UNIBANK: Nearly 700 BDO customers have reported unauthorized account transactions. Losses are small, but reputational risk is high. Add this...

Thomas J. Monaco

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