Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>SEMI reports Oct front/back end equipment billings decline of 14% and 18% y/y, respectively, which was improved from 18% and 24% y/y decline in September, implying early signs of recovery.</li>
<li>WSTS/SIA earlier reported September sales of US$44.89bn, up 1.9% m/m and down only 4% y/y (vs. 16% decline in June), suggesting semi sales y/y improvement and pass the cycle trough.</li>
<li>We are positive on SOX INDEX likely to break new high of over 4,000 in six months and expect PC/smartphone/training AI semi and DRAM semi/equipment vendors to outperform in short.</li>
</ul>


SEMI reports Oct front/back end equipment billings decline of 14% and 18% y/y, respectively, which was improved from 18% and 24% y/y decline in September, implying early signs of recovery.
WSTS/SIA earlier reported September sales of US$44.89bn, up 1.9% m/m and down only 4% y/y (vs. 16% decline in June), suggesting semi sales y/y improvement and pass the cycle trough.
We are positive on SOX INDEX likely to break new high of over 4,000 in six months and expect PC/smartphone/training AI semi and DRAM semi/equipment vendors to outperform in short.


What Oct US SEMI Equipment and Sep SIA/WSTS Global Sales Tell Us?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The coming week has the rebalance implementation for the NIFTY family of indices on Thursday and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> on Friday.</li>
<li>The review period for the December rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index</a> and the HSCI Index ends on Friday.</li>
<li>Inflows to mainland China ETFs resumed following a pause as markets continue to trade weak.</li>
</ul>


The coming week has the rebalance implementation for the NIFTY family of indices on Thursday and the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) on Friday.
The review period for the December rebalance of the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng TECH Index and the HSCI Index ends on Friday.
Inflows to mainland China ETFs resumed following a pause as markets continue to trade weak.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCI, ASX, SET50, Wharf, SK Tel, Tata Motors, Midea, PCOMP

Managing Partner, VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Managing Partner

Valuation & Research Specialists (VRS) is a boutique financial advisor with more than 17 years of experience in Corporate Valuation and Finance, and a diversified client base including some of the largest Companies in Greece.

Since 2002, VRS has completed more than 200 engagements in the areas of business valuation and financial analysis for more than 100 clients in a wide range of industries.

VRS has been honored to work with small and large private and publicly traded companies in Europe and overseas.

Boutique Financial Advisor

<ul><li>The re-emergence of AI as a topic of hype, caution and investment contains, in equal parts, the re-discovery of a pre-existing technology, but now on steroids, plus all the excitement of the race among the top 5 techs to invest enough in order to dominate the field .</li><li>The 2000 Dot.com boom involved hundreds of IPOs of start-ups, all with the word “internet” in their names, except now the AI boom involves mostly buying up existing startups by the big Techs.</li><li>The re emergence of AI will undoubtedly change a lot of the ways in which data are used and monetized, it will make Google search far more client-friendly and it will step up the capacity of software to program themselves. </li></ul>

The re-emergence of AI as a topic of hype, caution and investment contains, in equal parts, the re-discovery of a pre-existing technology, but now on steroids, plus all the excitement of the race among the top 5 techs to invest enough in order to dominate the field .The 2000 Dot.com boom involved hundreds of IPOs of start-ups, all with the word “internet” in their names, except now the AI boom involves mostly buying up existing startups by the big Techs.The re emergence of AI will undoubtedly change a lot of the ways in which data are used and monetized, it will make Google search far more client-friendly and it will step up the capacity of software to program themselves. 

The “ AI Revolution” : A Cautionary Tale and Its Investment Consequences

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 46.9 and reveals clear downside for equities based on the historical relationship.</li>
<li>The US labor market remains way too hot for the Fed and significantly increases the odds of another rate hike even as a massive drop in inflation materializes. </li>
<li>The P/E ratio of Big Tech stocks equals 56, while earnings growth has turned negative in recent quarters. Not the best starting point with the MOVE/VIX ratio &gt;8.</li>
</ul>


The ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 46.9 and reveals clear downside for equities based on the historical relationship.
The US labor market remains way too hot for the Fed and significantly increases the odds of another rate hike even as a massive drop in inflation materializes. 
The P/E ratio of Big Tech stocks equals 56, while earnings growth has turned negative in recent quarters. Not the best starting point with the MOVE/VIX ratio &gt;8.


ISM Down, Rates Up, Valuation Ballooning; What Could Go Wrong?

<ul>
<li>History shows that stock market bubbles - a 100% price boom within a year, followed by a 50%+ crash in the following year - are extremely rare.</li>
<li>We apply this metric to current market dynamics and conclude there are no booms around these days.</li>
<li>When expanding the definition of a bubble, two of them appear but only in a small subset of the total stock market: Non-profitable Tech stocks and NVIDIA.</li>
</ul>


History shows that stock market bubbles - a 100% price boom within a year, followed by a 50%+ crash in the following year - are extremely rare.
We apply this metric to current market dynamics and conclude there are no booms around these days.
When expanding the definition of a bubble, two of them appear but only in a small subset of the total stock market: Non-profitable Tech stocks and NVIDIA.


Bubble or Breadth: Evaluating the State of the Stock Market

United States

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index comprised of companies that are involved in the design, distribution, manufacturing and sale of semiconductors. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of december 1, 1993. Index methodology changed from Price-weighted as of 12/21/2009.

Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX INDEX)

Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index

Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX INDEX)

What Oct US SEMI Equipment and Sep SIA/WSTS Global Sales Tell Us?

What Oct US SEMI Equipment and Sep SIA/WSTS Global Sales Tell Us? Telling us early signs of semi equipment and global semi sales recovery and we...

Andrew Lu

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCI, ASX, SET50, Wharf, SK Tel, Tata Motors, Midea, PCOMP

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

The “ AI Revolution” : A Cautionary Tale and Its Investment Consequences

The re-emergence of AI as a topic of hype, caution and investment contains, in equal parts, the re-discovery of a pre-existing technology, but now...

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

ISM Down, Rates Up, Valuation Ballooning; What Could Go Wrong?

The AI Boom remains real, but so is deteriorating Macro, extreme SKEW, the MOVE-VIX divergence, and lofty Big Tech valuation.

Jeroen Blokland

Bubble or Breadth: Evaluating the State of the Stock Market

No current stock market boom is evident, but concerns arise regarding market breadth and concentration of market value in a few major stocks.

Jeroen Blokland