European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>TGS is seizing an opportunity by acquiring a competitor at a low valuation, in an all-share deal 0.06829 TGS NO x 1 PGS NO, departing from its traditional asset-light approach.</li>
<li>The Merger is subject to ongoing review by UK and Norwegian competition authorities. I believe the deal will be cleared, but might be delayed until Q4.</li>
<li>The dividend-adjusted gross spread is 6.7%. Regulatory approval concerns seem overblown. I would set up the spread.</li>
</ul>


TGS is seizing an opportunity by acquiring a competitor at a low valuation, in an all-share deal 0.06829 TGS NO x 1 PGS NO, departing from its traditional asset-light approach.
The Merger is subject to ongoing review by UK and Norwegian competition authorities. I believe the deal will be cleared, but might be delayed until Q4.
The dividend-adjusted gross spread is 6.7%. Regulatory approval concerns seem overblown. I would set up the spread.


T G S/P G S: Delayed by Competition Review, Spread

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Apart from being mildly EPS accretive, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>'s buyback is a means to get crossholders out, therefore, it may not have much direct market impact. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cie-de-saint-gobain" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21547:1" rel="noopener">Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP)</a> firms a decade-high-plus Offer price for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17380:1" rel="noopener">CSR Ltd (CSR AU)</a> - this is done.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Group (4755 JP)</a> announced it would propose an amendment to its Articles at the AGM (28 March) to issue "Bond-Type Class Shares." First reaction: You wot, mate?</li>
</ul>


Apart from being mildly EPS accretive, Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)'s buyback is a means to get crossholders out, therefore, it may not have much direct market impact. 

Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP) firms a decade-high-plus Offer price for CSR Ltd (CSR AU) - this is done.

Rakuten Group (4755 JP) announced it would propose an amendment to its Articles at the AGM (28 March) to issue "Bond-Type Class Shares." First reaction: You wot, mate?


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, CSR, Rakuten, HK Property, Aeon/TSURUHA/Welcia

Global energy equity and oil & gas macro analyst

Anish Kapadia

Akap Energy

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We see oil exploration making a comeback in 2019, as drilling spending sees an increase and on the back of encouraging well results year to date. Already in 2019 there have been 4 high impact discoveries in the UK, South Africa and Guyana. Given the need of companies, especially the majors, to replenish their portfolios, there will still be a number of frontier, high impact wells being drilled. The areas where we see material exploration wells being drilled this year are Guyana, US GoM, Mexico, Brazil the Eastern Mediterranean and West Africa.If there is some exploration success, the pure-play exploration companies will be good performers, especially those that have exposure to several wells that could be material relative to their size. A pick up in drilling will also be positive for the offshore drilling companies and seismic names. We look at the merits and pitfalls of investing in exploration, performance in 2018, outlook for 2019, the debate over exploring for resource versus buying it, how the economics of exploration have improved and the impact of the time value of money.

We see oil exploration making a comeback in 2019, as drilling spending sees an increase and on the back of encouraging well results year to date. Already in 2019 there have been 4 high impact discoveries in the UK, South Africa and Guyana. Given the need of companies, especially the majors, to replenish their portfolios, there will still be a number of frontier, high impact wells being drilled. The areas where we see material exploration wells being drilled this year are Guyana, US GoM, Mexico, Brazil the Eastern Mediterranean and West Africa.If there is some exploration success, the pure-play exploration companies will be good performers, especially those that have exposure to several wells that could be material relative to their size. A pick up in drilling will also be positive for the offshore drilling companies and seismic names. We look at the merits and pitfalls of investing in exploration, performance in 2018, outlook for 2019, the debate over exploring for resource versus buying it, how the economics of exploration have improved and the impact of the time value of money. 

Oil Exploration: We Expect a Resurgence in 2019 Pointing to Strong Performance for E&Ps

Energy Expert

Thierry Bros, PhD

Thierrybros.com

Brexit negotiations are likely to start soon. Everyone is looking at the consequences on forex and on the UK financial sector. But who could benefit from decorrelation of energy prices between the UK and the EU?Following the policy paper " <a href="https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/brexits-impact-gas-markets-brext-security-supply-uk-ireland/" target="_blank">Brexit's impact on gas markets: Brexit and security of supply for the UK and Ireland</a>" just published by Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, this insight looks at the Brexit's impact on energy stocks.As the outcome of Brexit is still unknown, we can only draft…

Brexit negotiations are likely to start soon. Everyone is looking at the consequences on forex and on the UK financial sector. But who could benefit from decorrelation of energy prices between the UK and the EU?Following the policy paper " Brexit's impact on gas markets: Brexit and security of supply for the UK and Ireland" just published by Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, this insight looks at the Brexit's impact on energy stocks.As the outcome of Brexit is still unknown, we can only draft…

Frontier and emerging markets (Vietnam)

Dylan Waller

Nomadic Equity

Norway, Colombia, and Nigeria Amid Low Oil Prices The low oil price environment since late 2014 has put varying levels of strain on oil exporting countries and has also provided a benchmark of which countries have some of the most resilient oil producing companies.  As outlined in previous insights, I am bullish on several Vietnamese oil &amp; gas companies which have been able to fare well in this low oil price environment and could experience a strong rebound if oil prices rebound.  The World Bank…

Norway, Colombia, and Nigeria Amid Low Oil Prices  The low oil price environment since late 2014 has put varying levels of strain on oil exporting countries and has also provided a benchmark of which countries have some of the most resilient oil producing companies.  As outlined in previous insights, I am bullish on several Vietnamese oil &amp; gas companies which have been able to fare well in this low oil price environment and could experience a strong rebound if oil prices rebound.  The World Bank…

Overview of Opportunities in Asia, Africa, Latin America and Norway

Norway

Petroleum Geo-Services ASA is an oilfield service company primarily involved in geophysical and floating production services.  The Company provides a range of seismic- and reservoir services, including acquisition, processing, interpretation, and field evaluation.  Petroleum operates in a worldwide basis.

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Petroleum Geo-Services (PGS NO)

T G S/P G S: Delayed by Competition Review, Spread

TGS is taking advantage of a low valuation to acquire a competitor in an all-share deal. Regulatory approval for the merger is pending but likely...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, CSR, Rakuten, HK Property, Aeon/TSURUHA/Welcia

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Oil Exploration: We Expect a Resurgence in 2019 Pointing to Strong Performance for E&Ps

We see oil exploration making a comeback in 2019, as drilling spending sees an increase and on the back of encouraging well results year to date....

Anish Kapadia

Energy: Who Could Benefit from Brexit?

Brexit negotiations are likely to start soon. Everyone is looking at the consequences on forex and on the UK financial sector. But who could...

Thierry Bros, PhD

Overview of Opportunities in Asia, Africa, Latin America and Norway

Norway, Colombia, and Nigeria Amid Low Oil PricesThe low oil price environment since late 2014 has put varying levels of strain on oil exporting...

Nomadic Equity

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T G S/P G S: Delayed by Competition Review, Spread

​TGS is taking advantage of a low valuation to acquire a competitor in an all-share deal. Regulatory approval for the merger is pending but likely...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, CSR, Rakuten, HK Property, Aeon/TSURUHA/Welcia

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Oil Exploration: We Expect a Resurgence in 2019 Pointing to Strong Performance for E&Ps

We see oil exploration making a comeback in 2019, as drilling spending sees an increase and on the back of encouraging well results year to date....

Anish Kapadia

Energy: Who Could Benefit from Brexit?

Brexit negotiations are likely to start soon. Everyone is looking at the consequences on forex and on the UK financial sector. But who could...

Thierry Bros, PhD

Overview of Opportunities in Asia, Africa, Latin America and Norway

Norway, Colombia, and Nigeria Amid Low Oil PricesThe low oil price environment since late 2014 has put varying levels of strain on oil exporting...

Nomadic Equity

TGS is taking advantage of a low valuation to acquire a competitor in an all-share deal. Regulatory approval for the merger is pending but likely...