Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Following my insight dated Jan 7 on Sete Brasil's potential bankruptcy ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sembcorp-marine-major-customer-sete-brasil-may-file-for-bankruptcy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:2275">Sembcorp Marine: Major Customer Sete Brasil May File for Bankruptcy</a>  ), Bloomberg reported that its shareholders approves plan to file for bankruptcy on Wednesday. ( <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-20/sete-brasil-shareholders-said-to-approve-plan-to-file-bankruptcy" target="_blank">Sete Brasil Shareholders Approve Plan to File for Bankruptcy</a>)</p><p>The whole saga started when Sete Brasil's single customer, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22692" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22692">Petrobras Sa (Adr)</a> , slashed its rig leasing plan from 28 deepwater rigs to 10 which is forcing the shareholders of Sete Brasil to inject…</p>

Following my insight dated Jan 7 on Sete Brasil's potential bankruptcy ( Sembcorp Marine: Major Customer Sete Brasil May File for Bankruptcy  ), Bloomberg reported that its shareholders approves plan to file for bankruptcy on Wednesday. ( Sete Brasil Shareholders Approve Plan to File for Bankruptcy)The whole saga started when Sete Brasil's single customer, Petrobras Sa (Adr) , slashed its rig leasing plan from 28 deepwater rigs to 10 which is forcing the shareholders of Sete Brasil to inject…

Sembcorp Marine: Sete Brasil a Step Closer to Bankruptcy & Contract Cancellation?

Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Macroeconomics

<div class="content-highlight"><p><strong><em>The failure to use or the aggressive implementation of asset write downs in emerging markets and Asia will have far reaching implications for investors.</em></strong></p></div><p><strong><em> </em></strong></p><p>We live in a world where investors are uncertain about asset values both in financial and non-financial companies.  Whilst a lot is written about the nature of bad debts at banks, little has been comprehensively written about the balance sheets of non-financial companies.</p><p>We see the following evidence in our analysis:</p><p> </p><ul><li><div class="content-highlight">The failure of some…</div></li></ul>

The failure to use or the aggressive implementation of asset write downs in emerging markets and Asia will have far reaching implications for investors. We live in a world where investors are uncertain about asset values both in financial and non-financial companies.  Whilst a lot is written about the nature of bad debts at banks, little has been comprehensively written about the balance sheets of non-financial companies.We see the following evidence in our analysis: The failure of some…

<h2><strong>Summary points</strong></h2><ul>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>1986 remians the best comparable for oil prices now in our opinion.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>Adjusting the oil price for the action of the dollar improves the analysis.  The dollar and oil/commodities are different and should be treated as such.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>Fundamental factors of supply and demand provide a mixed picture for oil.  The 'energy feedback loop' is often overlooked.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight"><strong>The best the <em>market</em> can do is assume that today's real oil price will be the oil price in 12 months time.</strong></div></li>
<li><div class="content-highlight">
<strong>Financialisation of commodities is a big</strong>…</div></li>
</ul>

Summary points
1986 remians the best comparable for oil prices now in our opinion.
Adjusting the oil price for the action of the dollar improves the analysis.  The dollar and oil/commodities are different and should be treated as such.
Fundamental factors of supply and demand provide a mixed picture for oil.  The 'energy feedback loop' is often overlooked.
The best the market can do is assume that today's real oil price will be the oil price in 12 months time.

Financialisation of commodities is a big…


Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>In January’s ‘Government and Markets’ report, we used the themes in the 2016 GEM overview and China outlooks to introduce our intra-GEM country weightings.</p><p>We provide more detail on each of these countries in the full version of this report, focusing on the economic, financial and structural governance issues that we believe will be the most important market drivers over the course of this year and beyond.</p>

In January’s ‘Government and Markets’ report, we used the themes in the 2016 GEM overview and China outlooks to introduce our intra-GEM country weightings.We provide more detail on each of these countries in the full version of this report, focusing on the economic, financial and structural governance issues that we believe will be the most important market drivers over the course of this year and beyond.

Governance, Valuations and the Crisis of State Capitalism

<p><span lang="EN-US">Our bearish outlook for 2016 predicated on the rising risk of a “sudden stop” for China and uncontrolled FX depreciation across EM is unfortunately starting to play out; although markets currently feel very oversold and could rally sharply over the short term, we believe that there is further downside for EM equities in absolute and relative terms over the remainder of the year.</span></p>

Our bearish outlook for 2016 predicated on the rising risk of a “sudden stop” for China and uncontrolled FX depreciation across EM is unfortunately starting to play out; although markets currently feel very oversold and could rally sharply over the short term, we believe that there is further downside for EM equities in absolute and relative terms over the remainder of the year.

Brazil

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores for and produces oil and natural gas.  The Company refines, markets, and supplies oil products.  Petrobras operates oil tankers, distribution pipelines, marine, river and lake terminals, thermal power plants, fertilizer plants, and petrochemical units.  The Company operates in South America and elsewhere around the world.

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Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR US)

Sembcorp Marine: Sete Brasil a Step Closer to Bankruptcy & Contract Cancellation?

Following my insight dated Jan 7 on Sete Brasil's potential bankruptcy ( Sembcorp Marine: Major Customer Sete Brasil May File for Bankruptcy ),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Beware Impairments in EM and Asia

The failure to use or the aggressive implementation of asset write downs in emerging markets and Asia will have far reaching implications for...

Mark Artherton

Oil After 50%: Where Now for Stocks?

Summary points 1986 remians the best comparable for oil prices now in our opinion. Adjusting the oil price for the action of the dollar improves...

Mark Artherton

Governance, Valuations and the Crisis of State Capitalism

In January’s ‘Government and Markets’ report, we used the themes in the 2016 GEM overview and China outlooks to introduce our intra-GEM country...

John-Paul Smith

China and the EM Ugly Contest

Our bearish outlook for 2016 predicated on the rising risk of a “sudden stop” for China and uncontrolled FX depreciation across EM is unfortunately...

John-Paul Smith

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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