Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Petroleo Brasileiro  / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our neutral outlook has come down to price supports holding on the broad global indexes, including $54 on MSCI ACWIex-US (ACWX-US), $76.50 on EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>These support levels are now breaking which tilts our stance to bearish at the index level as long as the aforementioned indexes remain below their previous support levels.</li>
<li>We still see the EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX as holding above support, while the Hang Seng and Bovespa appear to be bottoming, none of which paint a bearish picture.</li>
</ul>


Our neutral outlook has come down to price supports holding on the broad global indexes, including $54 on MSCI ACWIex-US (ACWX-US), $76.50 on EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on ACWI (ACWI-US).
These support levels are now breaking which tilts our stance to bearish at the index level as long as the aforementioned indexes remain below their previous support levels.
We still see the EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX as holding above support, while the Hang Seng and Bovespa appear to be bottoming, none of which paint a bearish picture.


Broad Indexes Violate Support But Bright Spots Remain; Buying Energy, Staples, and Utilities

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.</li>
<li>The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.</li>
<li>Developed over the past 3 years, and implemented in its current state for 20 months, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, set out in detail below.</li>
</ul>


An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.
The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.
Developed over the past 3 years, and implemented in its current state for 20 months, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, set out in detail below.


Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

With Value funds making gains on Growth funds this year, where are EM Value managers positioned?Country: U/W China &amp; HK and India, O/W South Korea and Mexico.  Note also the overweight in Turkey, with 71% of the Value funds in our analysis positioned overweight versus the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF.Sector:U/W Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services and Health Care.  O/W  Materials, Industrials and Financials.Read on for further data and analysis on Industry and Stock positioning.Analysis taken from our Emerging Markets Research, covering 242 active GEM funds with combined AUM of $500bn

With Value funds making gains on Growth funds this year, where are EM Value managers positioned?Country: U/W China &amp; HK and India, O/W South Korea and Mexico.  Note also the overweight in Turkey, with 71% of the Value funds in our analysis positioned overweight versus the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF.Sector:U/W Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services and Health Care.  O/W  Materials, Industrials and Financials.Read on for further data and analysis on Industry and Stock positioning.Analysis taken from our Emerging Markets Research, covering 242 active GEM funds with combined AUM of $500bn

This insight provides the output, and an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, which takes a three-pronged approach to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 largest stocks in the MSCI GEM Index. The model is based on 1) a typical quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two Artificial Intelligence Technology-based approaches using 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model. This model, which has been developed and tweaked over the past 24 months (and implemented in its current state for &gt;12 months), has a solid real-world performance track record, which I set out in the detail below. Notable new entrants to the top decile this month include South Korean auto names, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kia-motors-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:156:1" rel="noopener">Kia Motors Corp (000270 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a> as well as Brazilian state-owned energy giant, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/petroleo-brasileiro-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24459:1" rel="noopener">Petroleo Brasileiro Sa (PETR3 BZ)</a>.<table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;">rank</td>
<td style="width: 169pt;">Name</td>
<td style="width: 119pt;">Sector</td>
<td style="width: 95pt;">Location</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;">prev.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a></td>
<td>Energy</td>
<td>China</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a></td>
<td>Information Technology</td>
<td>Taiwan</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">3</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a></td>
<td>Information Technology</td>
<td>Korea (South)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">23</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">4</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kia-motors-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:156:1" rel="noopener">Kia Motors Corp (000270 KS)</a></td>
<td>Consumer Discretionary</td>
<td>Korea (South)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">60</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">5</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:656:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)</a></td>
<td>Financials</td>
<td>China</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">25</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">6</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ptt-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:197:1" rel="noopener">PTT PCL (PTT TB)</a></td>
<td>Energy</td>
<td>Thailand</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">7</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a></td>
<td>Information Technology</td>
<td>Korea (South)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">8</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a></td>
<td>Consumer Discretionary</td>
<td>Korea (South)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">80</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">9</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a></td>
<td>Communication</td>
<td>China</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">29</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">10</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/petroleo-brasileiro-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24459:1" rel="noopener">Petroleo Brasileiro Sa (PETR3 BZ)</a></td>
<td>Energy</td>
<td>Brazil</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">59</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="5" style="text-align: left;">Source: FactSet financial data and analytics, my estimates and calculations, Tensorflow, Keras, Google Colaboratory, pandas</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>As usual, please feel free to reach out for the full output table, any questions, clarifications needed or suggestions.

This insight provides the output, and an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, which takes a three-pronged approach to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 largest stocks in the MSCI GEM Index. The model is based on 1) a typical quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two Artificial Intelligence Technology-based approaches using 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model. This model, which has been developed and tweaked over the past 24 months (and implemented in its current state for &gt;12 months), has a solid real-world performance track record, which I set out in the detail below. Notable new entrants to the top decile this month include South Korean auto names, Kia Motors Corp (000270 KS) and Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS) as well as Brazilian state-owned energy giant, Petroleo Brasileiro Sa (PETR3 BZ).









rank
Name
Sector
Location
prev.


1
CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)
Energy
China
1


2
Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)
Information Technology
Taiwan
5


3
SK Hynix (000660 KS)
Information Technology
Korea (South)
23


4
Kia Motors Corp (000270 KS)
Consumer Discretionary
Korea (South)
60


5
Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)
Financials
China
25


6
PTT PCL (PTT TB)
Energy
Thailand
4


7
Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)
Information Technology
Korea (South)
9


8
Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)
Consumer Discretionary
Korea (South)
80


9
China Mobile (941 HK)
Communication
China
29


10
Petroleo Brasileiro Sa (PETR3 BZ)
Energy
Brazil
59

Source: FactSet financial data and analytics, my estimates and calculations, Tensorflow, Keras, Google Colaboratory, pandas

As usual, please feel free to reach out for the full output table, any questions, clarifications needed or suggestions.

EM Energy allocations are at record lows.  A big exodus in the first half of 2020 pushed allocations to their lowest levels since our records start in 2008.   The aggressive scaling back of positioning had a dramatic effect on prices, with the MSCI EM Energy sector suffering one of the worst 12 month periods of underperformance in nearly 2 decades.  But the ownership picture is beginning to stabilize.  On a stock level, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lukoil-pjsc-2bfe0130-461e-4ff3-af12-93bec12e6325" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27148:1" rel="noopener">LUKOIL (LKOH RM)</a> appears to be the GOAT, with its backing of almost half of the funds in our analysis, well spread across the style spectrum in addition to being a net overweight.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reliance-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:198:1" rel="noopener"> Reliance Industries (RIL IN)</a> is also a high conviction stock, held by fewer funds than Lukoil but in greater size.  It also represents a significant underweight to many EM investors.  The most depressed stock of the larger holdings is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a> , once held by over 60% of the funds in our analysis, now by just 24%.Analysis taken from our EM research, covering the collective allocations of 242 Global Emerging Market active funds, with combined AUM of $460bn

EM Energy allocations are at record lows.  A big exodus in the first half of 2020 pushed allocations to their lowest levels since our records start in 2008.   The aggressive scaling back of positioning had a dramatic effect on prices, with the MSCI EM Energy sector suffering one of the worst 12 month periods of underperformance in nearly 2 decades.  But the ownership picture is beginning to stabilize.  On a stock level, LUKOIL (LKOH RM) appears to be the GOAT, with its backing of almost half of the funds in our analysis, well spread across the style spectrum in addition to being a net overweight.   Reliance Industries (RIL IN) is also a high conviction stock, held by fewer funds than Lukoil but in greater size.  It also represents a significant underweight to many EM investors.  The most depressed stock of the larger holdings is CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) , once held by over 60% of the funds in our analysis, now by just 24%.Analysis taken from our EM research, covering the collective allocations of 242 Global Emerging Market active funds, with combined AUM of $460bn

EM Energy: Big Underperformance - Positioning at Record Lows, but Stabilizing.

Brazil

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores for and produces oil and natural gas.  The Company refines, markets, and supplies oil products.  Petrobras operates oil tankers, distribution pipelines, marine, river and lake terminals, thermal power plants, fertilizer plants, and petrochemical units.  The Company operates in South America and elsewhere around the world.

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Petroleo Brasileiro (PETR4 BZ)

Broad Indexes Violate Support But Bright Spots Remain; Buying Energy, Staples, and Utilities

We are highlighting Energy again because it is easily our favorite Sector. Additionally, defensive Sectors including Staples and Utilities display...

Vermilion Research

Screening for GEMs: January 2022

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

EM Value Fund Positioning

With Value funds making gains on Growth funds this year, where are active Emerging Market Value managers positioned across countries, sectors,...

Steven Holden

Screening for GEMs: June 2021

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

EM Energy: Big Underperformance - Positioning at Record Lows, but Stabilizing.

EM Energy exodus drives worst performance of EM Energy sector in over 15 years. EM active funds are now at their lowest ever exposure to EM Energy...

Steven Holden

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