EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In <a href="http://www.smartkarma.com/insights/how-oil-can-head-over-100-by-2017" target="_blank">my last thoughts on oil</a>, where I plotted some of the structural factors that might take it over $100 in the next few years, I noted that the probability of a December OPEC cut was being underpriced by the market.Today we have seen headlines that Saudi will do, Draghi-style, "whatever it takes" to stabilize the oil price including co-operating with the broader OPEC cartel.A shift in Saudi Arabian production strategy was one of the main drivers of the "double dip" in oil prices over the summer…

In my last thoughts on oil, where I plotted some of the structural factors that might take it over $100 in the next few years, I noted that the probability of a December OPEC cut was being underpriced by the market.Today we have seen headlines that Saudi will do, Draghi-style, "whatever it takes" to stabilize the oil price including co-operating with the broader OPEC cartel.A shift in Saudi Arabian production strategy was one of the main drivers of the "double dip" in oil prices over the summer…

Oil markets continue to be turgid as producers look to make up lower prices by increased volume.&nbsp;This has led to markets that are severely overstretched versus their fundamentals.If we look at the oil futures curve structure and elements likely to impact it, oil looks like it may surprise to the upside much as it has surprised to the downside.This piece summarises the bull case for a complex topic.

Oil markets continue to be turgid as producers look to make up lower prices by increased volume.&nbsp;This has led to markets that are severely overstretched versus their fundamentals.If we look at the oil futures curve structure and elements likely to impact it, oil looks like it may surprise to the upside much as it has surprised to the downside.This piece summarises the bull case for a complex topic.

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Cross Asset Strategy

Mark and JP once again highlight the fault lines that run through what they consider to be the most vulnerable part of the listed Chinese corporate sector, namely the industrial and materials companies which are the most symptomatic of the broader economy.Whilst there are a number of indications that the rate of economic growth may pick up a little over the short term (property sales, land sales, consumption incentives, fiscal policy), these sectors are indicative of a deep malaise at the heart of the economy.We are especially concerned about the blow out in working capital and the ongoing deterioration in the efficacy of credit growth.&nbsp;

Mark and JP once again highlight the fault lines that run through what they consider to be the most vulnerable part of the listed Chinese corporate sector, namely the industrial and materials companies which are the most symptomatic of the broader economy.Whilst there are a number of indications that the rate of economic growth may pick up a little over the short term (property sales, land sales, consumption incentives, fiscal policy), these sectors are indicative of a deep malaise at the heart of the economy.We are especially concerned about the blow out in working capital and the ongoing deterioration in the efficacy of credit growth.&nbsp;

China: Short-term stabilization possible but underlying fault lines remain

This report examines the underlying governance factors that have driven EM underperformance over the last five years.Brazil, Russia, Malaysia and Turkey appear to have entered a vicious circle whereby lower growth leads to currency devaluation leading to policies, which are negative for both equity investors and economies and so the whole process starts up again (we still believe that of the four Turkey has the best prospects of escaping from this vortex).Most disturbingly, we believe that China as well as Indonesia may be on the verge of joining this not very select group.While sentiment towards EM has the hallmark of a short term bottom with plenty of space for bear market rallies and short squeezes, there is little sign of the positive inflection in policies, which might mark a secular turning point in individual markets or in the broader asset class.

This report examines the underlying governance factors that have driven EM underperformance over the last five years.Brazil, Russia, Malaysia and Turkey appear to have entered a vicious circle whereby lower growth leads to currency devaluation leading to policies, which are negative for both equity investors and economies and so the whole process starts up again (we still believe that of the four Turkey has the best prospects of escaping from this vortex).Most disturbingly, we believe that China as well as Indonesia may be on the verge of joining this not very select group.While sentiment towards EM has the hallmark of a short term bottom with plenty of space for bear market rallies and short squeezes, there is little sign of the positive inflection in policies, which might mark a secular turning point in individual markets or in the broader asset class.

Many (un)happy returns in EM; governance and the vicious circle

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Growth in the second quarter was revised up from 3.7% to 3.9%, beating the consensus estimate of 3.7% growth.It was what economists like to call a high-quality revision as the contribution from inventory expansion was now just 0.2% instead of 0.4%, meaning fewer goods were piling up on shelves.More than offsetting the downward inventory calculation was a large revision to consumer spending, primarily the services-related category.Consumer spending grew at a 3.6% rate in the second quarter, one of the best performances of this recovery and constituting almost two thirds of total GDP growth.Most of the construction-related categories were also revised higher.Analysts: Robert Johnson CFA &amp; Roland CzerniawskiFull report below the fold...&nbsp;

Growth in the second quarter was revised up from 3.7% to 3.9%, beating the consensus estimate of 3.7% growth.It was what economists like to call a high-quality revision as the contribution from inventory expansion was now just 0.2% instead of 0.4%, meaning fewer goods were piling up on shelves.More than offsetting the downward inventory calculation was a large revision to consumer spending, primarily the services-related category.Consumer spending grew at a 3.6% rate in the second quarter, one of the best performances of this recovery and constituting almost two thirds of total GDP growth.Most of the construction-related categories were also revised higher.Analysts: Robert Johnson CFA &amp; Roland CzerniawskiFull report below the fold...&nbsp;

U.S. Economy Picks up the Pace: We're bumping up our 2015 GDP forecast

China

PetroChina Company Limited explores, develops, and produces crude oil and natural gas.  The Company also refines, transports, and distributes crude oil and petroleum products, produces and sells chemicals, and transmits, markets and sells natural gas.

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PetroChina (857 HK)

Is an OPEC Cut Imminent?

In my last thoughts on oil, where I plotted some of the structural factors that might take it over $100 in the next few years, I noted that the...

Emad Mostaque

How Oil Can Head over $100 by 2017

Oil markets continue to be turgid as producers look to make up lower prices by increased volume. This has led to markets that are severely...

Emad Mostaque

China: Short-term stabilization possible but underlying fault lines remain

Mark and JP once again highlight the fault lines that run through what they consider to be the most vulnerable part of the listed Chinese corporate...

John-Paul Smith

Many (un)happy returns in EM; governance and the vicious circle

This report examines the underlying governance factors that have driven EM underperformance over the last five years.Brazil, Russia, Malaysia and...

John-Paul Smith

U.S. Economy Picks up the Pace: We're bumping up our 2015 GDP forecast

Growth in the second quarter was revised up from 3.7% to 3.9%, beating the consensus estimate of 3.7% growth.It was what economists like to call a...

Morningstar, Inc.

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