Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

I was working on a bigger piece on HK vs Singapore which I will put out later, and reviewing political classifications of economies, when I saw a good comment from Ray Dalio on Trump and his invocation of Ayn Rand. I was also in the middle of reading the history of Athens and re-reading Aristotle’s Constitution of Athens, which added perspective to Dalio. There is a lot to apply to today which I think is worth noting.Quick conclusions before delving deeper:<ul><li>Ray Dalio is right to invoke Ayn Rand and flag the positives Trump could bring about;</li><li>But Let’s also keep in mind how deep the recent hole banks, Bernanke and Obama dug;</li><li>Looking at Aristotle as well, we might say that Trump’s partial democratic election has been to install an Aristocracy…this will certainly be interesting;</li><li>There are some really good free reads to turn to for a quick study of Ayn Rand;</li><li>When we listen back to Ayn Rand, we see that she disliked MNCs/Corporations because of their manipulation of government…Let’s see where Trump takes this.</li></ul>

I was working on a bigger piece on HK vs Singapore which I will put out later, and reviewing political classifications of economies, when I saw a good comment from Ray Dalio on Trump and his invocation of Ayn Rand. I was also in the middle of reading the history of Athens and re-reading Aristotle’s Constitution of Athens, which added perspective to Dalio. There is a lot to apply to today which I think is worth noting.Quick conclusions before delving deeper:Ray Dalio is right to invoke Ayn Rand and flag the positives Trump could bring about;But Let’s also keep in mind how deep the recent hole banks, Bernanke and Obama dug;Looking at Aristotle as well, we might say that Trump’s partial democratic election has been to install an Aristocracy…this will certainly be interesting;There are some really good free reads to turn to for a quick study of Ayn Rand;When we listen back to Ayn Rand, we see that she disliked MNCs/Corporations because of their manipulation of government…Let’s see where Trump takes this.

Trump Not Likely to Halt Decline of US. But Ray Dalio Makes Good Case in Bringing Back Ayn Rand

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

<ul>
<li>The overwhelming investor consensus a year ago was for further EM/commodity downside amid deflation fears - this year it is a USD secular bull and global reflation; positioning has shifted accordingly.</li>
<li><div>The value over momentum positioning advocated all year has paid off dramatically - globally, value has outperformed by about 20 ppts since July, the second-best run versus quality in almost 40 years.</div></li>
<li><div>Calling the oil market right in 2016 was critical to everything else in asset allocation including…</div></li>
</ul>


The overwhelming investor consensus a year ago was for further EM/commodity downside amid deflation fears - this year it is a USD secular bull and global reflation; positioning has shifted accordingly.
The value over momentum positioning advocated all year has paid off dramatically - globally, value has outperformed by about 20 ppts since July, the second-best run versus quality in almost 40 years.
Calling the oil market right in 2016 was critical to everything else in asset allocation including…


2017 Asset Allocation Outlook – Part 2: Trump Reflation Euphoria to Fade?

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

🎺🎺🎺 The Maritime Honours List 2016 🎺🎺🎺 As we near the end of the year, global markets are on a high despite China, Korea, Brexit, Trump, Italy and Fed rate concerns, among others. US 10yr yield is at levels they were not supposed to reach until the end of 2017, reflation trade is in play and OPEC has finally agreed to production cuts.Not many would have seen that coming. For shipping it was another tough year. As 2016 (the most tumultuous and dreadful year for the global maritime industry in…

🎺🎺🎺 The Maritime Honours List 2016 🎺🎺🎺 As we near the end of the year, global markets are on a high despite China, Korea, Brexit, Trump, Italy and Fed rate concerns, among others. US 10yr yield is at levels they were not supposed to reach until the end of 2017, reflation trade is in play and OPEC has finally agreed to production cuts.Not many would have seen that coming. For shipping it was another tough year. As 2016 (the most tumultuous and dreadful year for the global maritime industry in…

APAC Investment Strategy, Animal Spirits Report, Quiddity Advisors

Paul M. Kitney, PhD

APAC Investment Strategy, Animal Spirits Report

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul><li>"Overweights" - Japan and Taiwan</li><li>"Underweights" - India, Singapore, Indonesia, and the Philippines</li><li>Recent Upgrades - Japan, Taiwan, and Australia. </li><li>Recent Downgrades - Hong Kong, China, Korea, India, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines</li><li>Key Sector Overweights - APAC financials, China consumer discretionary, Korea/Taiwan IT (semiconductors), Australia and Japan materials, Malaysia and Indonesia plantations</li><li>Key Sector Underweights - APAC consumer staples, APAC utilities, Hong Kong property</li><li>Top Bullish Themes - Macau tourism, APAC "value"factor tilt, Indian crop yield enhancement</li><li>Top Bearish Themes - Japan "minimum volatility" factor tilt and high dividend stable "bond-proxy" equities</li><li>"Top Pick" equities identified in key sectors and themes</li></ul>This is the final in a series of four short notes, which evaluate our APAC investment strategy insights over the past 3 months, provides an overview of the current state of APAC valuation and earnings, followed by an update of our asset allocation, stock, sector and equity ideas.

"Overweights" - Japan and Taiwan"Underweights" - India, Singapore, Indonesia, and the PhilippinesRecent Upgrades - Japan, Taiwan, and Australia. Recent Downgrades - Hong Kong, China, Korea, India, Thailand, Indonesia and the PhilippinesKey Sector Overweights - APAC financials, China consumer discretionary, Korea/Taiwan IT (semiconductors), Australia and Japan materials, Malaysia and Indonesia plantationsKey Sector Underweights - APAC consumer staples, APAC utilities, Hong Kong propertyTop Bullish Themes - Macau tourism, APAC "value"factor tilt, Indian crop yield enhancementTop Bearish Themes - Japan "minimum volatility" factor tilt and high dividend stable "bond-proxy" equities"Top Pick" equities identified in key sectors and themesThis is the final in a series of four short notes, which evaluate our APAC investment strategy insights over the past 3 months, provides an overview of the current state of APAC valuation and earnings, followed by an update of our asset allocation, stock, sector and equity ideas.

ANIMAL SPIRITS REPORT: Investment Outlook - Emerging Markets Trumped but Japan Escapes Value Trap

Country and Sector Earnings Revision Summary<ul><li>J-curve effects apparent in Europe, Australia, and Japan</li><li>Emerging market earnings revision underperformance led by China</li><li>Financial sector earnings recovery, especially in Japan</li><li>Consumer discretionary earnings under pressure</li><li>Earnings momentum in telecoms fading since last earnings update</li></ul>This is the third in a series of four short notes, which evaluate our APAC investment strategy insights over the past 3 months, provides an overview of the current state of APAC valuation and earnings, followed by an update of our asset allocation, stock, sector and equity ideas.

Country and Sector Earnings Revision SummaryJ-curve effects apparent in Europe, Australia, and JapanEmerging market earnings revision underperformance led by ChinaFinancial sector earnings recovery, especially in JapanConsumer discretionary earnings under pressureEarnings momentum in telecoms fading since last earnings updateThis is the third in a series of four short notes, which evaluate our APAC investment strategy insights over the past 3 months, provides an overview of the current state of APAC valuation and earnings, followed by an update of our asset allocation, stock, sector and equity ideas.

ANIMAL SPIRITS REPORT: Country and Sector Earnings Revision Summary (Dec 2016)

China

PetroChina Company Limited explores, develops, and produces crude oil and natural gas.  The Company also refines, transports, and distributes crude oil and petroleum products, produces and sells chemicals, and transmits, markets and sells natural gas.

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PetroChina (857 HK)

Trump Not Likely to Halt Decline of US. But Ray Dalio Makes Good Case in Bringing Back Ayn Rand

I was working on a bigger piece on HK vs Singapore which I will put out later, and reviewing political classifications of economies, when I saw a...

Charles De Trenck

2017 Asset Allocation Outlook – Part 2: Trump Reflation Euphoria to Fade?

The overwhelming investor consensus a year ago was for further EM/commodity downside amid deflation fears - this year it is a USD secular bull and...

Sean Maher

🎺The Maritime Honours List 2016🎺

🎺🎺🎺 The Maritime Honours List 2016 🎺🎺🎺As we near the end of the year, global markets are on a high despite China, Korea, Brexit, Trump, Italy and...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

ANIMAL SPIRITS REPORT: Investment Outlook - Emerging Markets Trumped but Japan Escapes Value Trap

"Overweights" - Japan and Taiwan "Underweights" - India, Singapore, Indonesia, and the Philippines Recent Upgrades - Japan, Taiwan, and...

Paul M. Kitney, PhD

ANIMAL SPIRITS REPORT: Country and Sector Earnings Revision Summary (Dec 2016)

Country and Sector Earnings Revision Summary J-curve effects apparent in Europe, Australia, and Japan Emerging market earnings revision...

Paul M. Kitney, PhD

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)