Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK) bottomed in Oct/Nov 2022 around the 61.8% retracement support. The subsequent impulsive multi-month uptrend maintains the bullish LT trend reversal confirmed in 2021.</li>
<li>March 2023 has delivered new bullish breakouts in price and LT momentum that confirm a sustainable LT uptrend bias. Initial target at 5.28 (+13%). Longer term risk to 6.50/6.80 (+40%).</li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK) bottomed in Oct/Nov 2022 around the 61.8% retracement support. The subsequent impulsive multi-month uptrend maintains the bullish LT trend reversal confirmed in 2021.
March 2023 has delivered new bullish breakouts in price and LT momentum that confirm a sustainable LT uptrend bias. Initial target at 5.28 (+13%). Longer term risk to 6.50/6.80 (+40%).


PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK) - Price and Momentum Breakouts in March Confirm 10-15% Upside

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a> scheme document is out with the court meeting scheduled for 27 April. The IFA considers the HK$1.85 offer to be fair and reasonable.</li>
<li>The IFA’s conclusion is dubious as the contents of the report could easily have come to the opposite conclusion. The quick despatch of the scheme document is worrying. </li>
<li>The weak IFA report will further annoy minorities and push more towards the NO camp. The vote is on a knife edge which is reflected in the current 13.5% spread. </li>
</ul>



Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK) scheme document is out with the court meeting scheduled for 27 April. The IFA considers the HK$1.85 offer to be fair and reasonable.
The IFA’s conclusion is dubious as the contents of the report could easily have come to the opposite conclusion. The quick despatch of the scheme document is worrying. 
The weak IFA report will further annoy minorities and push more towards the NO camp. The vote is on a knife edge which is reflected in the current 13.5% spread. 


AAG Energy (2686 HK): Rushed Scheme Document Points to a Vote on a Knife Edge

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The oil majors - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-petroleum-chemical-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:369:1" rel="noopener">China Petroleum &amp; Chemical (386 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/petrochina-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:262:1" rel="noopener">PetroChina (857 HK)</a> - are interesting plays on government's plan to boost capital market valuations.</li>
<li>Higher dividend payout, privatisation of undervalued subsidiaries, return to A-shares, share buyback and upping stake by major shareholders are just some example of supporting tactics.</li>
<li>The government may possibly mobilise more offshore funds of SOEs to add stakes. We think ROE expansion and capital market valuations to gain importance in senior management KPIs.</li>
</ul>


The oil majors - CNOOC Ltd (883 HK), China Petroleum &amp; Chemical (386 HK) and PetroChina (857 HK) - are interesting plays on government's plan to boost capital market valuations.
Higher dividend payout, privatisation of undervalued subsidiaries, return to A-shares, share buyback and upping stake by major shareholders are just some example of supporting tactics.
The government may possibly mobilise more offshore funds of SOEs to add stakes. We think ROE expansion and capital market valuations to gain importance in senior management KPIs.


China Oil Sector: A Look from SOE Valuation Enhancement Angle

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 115.1% as of Mar 10th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 3.2ppt week on week, led by health care, communication services, information technology.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Shenhua, PetroChina, China Southern, ZTE, CRRC, CICC.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 115.1% as of Mar 10th.
The average A-H premium changed by 3.2ppt week on week, led by health care, communication services, information technology.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Shenhua, PetroChina, China Southern, ZTE, CRRC, CICC.


A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 10th): China Shenhua, PetroChina, China Southern, ZTE, CRRC, CICC

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 109.6% as of Feb 17th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -2.3ppt week on week, led by consumer discretionary, health care, energy and offset by communication services, consumer staples, materials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Shenhua, PetroChina, GWM, First Tractor.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 109.6% as of Feb 17th.
The average A-H premium changed by -2.3ppt week on week, led by consumer discretionary, health care, energy and offset by communication services, consumer staples, materials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Shenhua, PetroChina, GWM, First Tractor.


A-H Premium Weekly (Feb 17th): China Shenhua, PetroChina, GWM, First Tractor

China

PetroChina Company Limited explores, develops, and produces crude oil and natural gas.  The Company also refines, transports, and distributes crude oil and petroleum products, produces and sells chemicals, and transmits, markets and sells natural gas.

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PetroChina (857 HK)

PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK) - Price and Momentum Breakouts in March Confirm 10-15% Upside

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

AAG Energy (2686 HK): Rushed Scheme Document Points to a Vote on a Knife Edge

The quick despatch of the scheme document suggests that the offeror is worried. The vote is on a knife edge. While the deal-break downside is...

Arun George

China Oil Sector: A Look from SOE Valuation Enhancement Angle

Higher dividend payout, privatisation of undervalued subsidiaries, return to A-shares, share buyback and upping stake by major shareholders can...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 10th): China Shenhua, PetroChina, China Southern, ZTE, CRRC, CICC

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Shenhua, PetroChina, China Southern, ZTE, CRRC, CICC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Feb 17th): China Shenhua, PetroChina, GWM, First Tractor

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Shenhua, PetroChina, GWM, First Tractor

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)