Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)</li>
<li>The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).</li>
<li>Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)
The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).
Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.


Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Despite the delay in automation spending, deal wins remains strong this quarter.</li><li>Many of India's IT service companies reported the highest order book despite the lack of near-term visibility.</li><li>The attrition rate has dropped as we see some easing on the supply side.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Despite the delay in automation spending, deal wins remains strong this quarter.Many of India's IT service companies reported the highest order book despite the lack of near-term visibility.The attrition rate has dropped as we see some easing on the supply side.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In Q1FY24, Persistent Systems Ltd (Persistent) reported revenue of Rs 2,321 Cr, up 3% QoQ and 3.9% QoQ (in CC terms) which stood in line with our expectations.</li><li>The company’s operating profit stood at Rs 423 Cr, reporting a growth of 1.6% on a QoQ basis.</li><li>Much in line with our expectations, the company’s operating margins remained flat but declined marginally by 30bps to 18.2%, largely led by moderation in attrition levels and a reduction in sub-contracting costs during the quarter. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In Q1FY24, Persistent Systems Ltd (Persistent) reported revenue of Rs 2,321 Cr, up 3% QoQ and 3.9% QoQ (in CC terms) which stood in line with our expectations.The company’s operating profit stood at Rs 423 Cr, reporting a growth of 1.6% on a QoQ basis.Much in line with our expectations, the company’s operating margins remained flat but declined marginally by 30bps to 18.2%, largely led by moderation in attrition levels and a reduction in sub-contracting costs during the quarter. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Persistent Systems Ltd. - Robust Execution

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>UltraTech Cement: We maintain BUY on UltraTech (UTCEM) with an unchanged target price of INR 9,305 (16.5x Mar-25E consolidated EBITDA)</li><li>We continue to like UTCEM for its robust growth and margin outlook and balance sheet management</li><li>It delivered strong 20% YoY volume growth YoY (grey 20%, white/putty 12%)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

UltraTech Cement: We maintain BUY on UltraTech (UTCEM) with an unchanged target price of INR 9,305 (16.5x Mar-25E consolidated EBITDA)We continue to like UTCEM for its robust growth and margin outlook and balance sheet managementIt delivered strong 20% YoY volume growth YoY (grey 20%, white/putty 12%)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: UltraTech Cement, United Spirits, Mphasis, Persistent Systems, Dalmia Bharat

<ul><li>We hosted the ISG index call (link) and the key message was recovery in the business environment ahead</li><li>While ISG maintained the CY23 outlook on growth in managed services deal bookings (+5% for CY23), recovery ahead is based on (1) improving pipeline for new scope projects (vs renewals &amp; extension heavy recently that drove vendor consolidation) (2) approval threshold for projects and transition timelines normalising with stable pricing environment (3) pipeline build-up for SIs with increased enterprise interest in captives and (4) stability to return in BFSI, which was impacted by executive movement earlier in enterprises</li><li>The current disconnect between the growth in bookings and soft revenue growth is largely due to the impact on discretionary services</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We hosted the ISG index call (link) and the key message was recovery in the business environment aheadWhile ISG maintained the CY23 outlook on growth in managed services deal bookings (+5% for CY23), recovery ahead is based on (1) improving pipeline for new scope projects (vs renewals &amp; extension heavy recently that drove vendor consolidation) (2) approval threshold for projects and transition timelines normalising with stable pricing environment (3) pipeline build-up for SIs with increased enterprise interest in captives and (4) stability to return in BFSI, which was impacted by executive movement earlier in enterprisesThe current disconnect between the growth in bookings and soft revenue growth is largely due to the impact on discretionary servicesContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

Persistent Systems Limited offers outsourced software product development. The Company offer services that include testing, support, and professional services.

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Persistent Systems (PSYS IN)

Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

We remain bullish on global equities as long as major $93 support on $ACWI continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)....

Vermilion Research

Top Sector Ideas - IT Services

Despite the delay in automation spending, deal wins remains strong this quarter. Many of India's IT service companies reported the highest order...

Axis Direct

Persistent Systems Ltd. - Robust Execution

In Q1FY24, Persistent Systems Ltd (Persistent) reported revenue of Rs 2,321 Cr, up 3% QoQ and 3.9% QoQ (in CC terms) which stood in line with our...

Axis Direct

HSIE Results Daily: UltraTech Cement, United Spirits, Mphasis, Persistent Systems, Dalmia Bharat

UltraTech Cement: We maintain BUY on UltraTech (UTCEM) with an unchanged target price of INR 9,305 (16.5x Mar-25E consolidated EBITDA)

HDFC Securities

IT Sector Update: Recovery ahead

The current disconnect between the growth in bookings and soft revenue growth is largely due to the impact on discretionary service

HDFC Securities

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