Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinduoduo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">Pinduoduo (PDD US)</a>’s 3Q22 mirrored its strong previous quarter with revenue of RMB 35.5bn (consensus: RMB 30.8bn) and OP of RMB 10.4bn (consensus: RMB 6.7bn).</li>
<li>CCP’s anti-monopoly drive and common prosperity measures are helping Pinduoduo to outperform the competition.</li>
<li>Nonetheless, we refrain from being outright positive on any of the Chinese e-commerce names with the economy heading into a slowdown and the lowest sector-multiple at above 12x FY+1 OP.</li>
</ul>



Pinduoduo (PDD US)’s 3Q22 mirrored its strong previous quarter with revenue of RMB 35.5bn (consensus: RMB 30.8bn) and OP of RMB 10.4bn (consensus: RMB 6.7bn).
CCP’s anti-monopoly drive and common prosperity measures are helping Pinduoduo to outperform the competition.
Nonetheless, we refrain from being outright positive on any of the Chinese e-commerce names with the economy heading into a slowdown and the lowest sector-multiple at above 12x FY+1 OP.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Multiple new agencies have been reporting that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> plans to trim its investment portfolio over the remainder of the year. </li>
<li>The reports have been coming in since the second half of the year and the company has been duly denying these rumors.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at Tencent’s shareholding in various companies to try and gauge which ones it could sell out of and how.</li>
</ul>


Multiple new agencies have been reporting that Tencent (700 HK) plans to trim its investment portfolio over the remainder of the year. 
The reports have been coming in since the second half of the year and the company has been duly denying these rumors.
In this note, we look at Tencent’s shareholding in various companies to try and gauge which ones it could sell out of and how.


Tencent Investee Selldown - The US$120bn Global Overhang

<ul>
<li>After hitting the bottom during the COVID crisis, the only direction left for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29673:1" rel="noopener">MINISO Group Holdings (MNSO US)</a> to move is up.</li>
<li>Given the current valuations, Miniso could generate multi-bagger returns during favourable market conditions.</li>
<li>In addition, Miniso could help investors generate sizable returns in the short-term on the short side with increased short exposure to Chinese E-commerce.</li>
</ul>


After hitting the bottom during the COVID crisis, the only direction left for MINISO Group Holdings (MNSO US) to move is up.
Given the current valuations, Miniso could generate multi-bagger returns during favourable market conditions.
In addition, Miniso could help investors generate sizable returns in the short-term on the short side with increased short exposure to Chinese E-commerce.


Miniso: Genuinely Undervalued & A Decent Long Hedge to Increase Short Exposure to Chinese E-Commerce

Equity Capital Markets

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>GoTo aims to raise around US$1.25bn from a local listing, which will mainly be targeted at domestic investors. </li>
<li>GoTo, is an Indonesian holding company, was formed in May 2021 as a result of a merger between Gojek, leading player in ride hailing, and Tokopedia, leading e-commerce player.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the company's valuation.</li>
</ul>


GoTo aims to raise around US$1.25bn from a local listing, which will mainly be targeted at domestic investors. 
GoTo, is an Indonesian holding company, was formed in May 2021 as a result of a merger between Gojek, leading player in ride hailing, and Tokopedia, leading e-commerce player.
In this note, we will talk about the company's valuation.


GoTo IPO - Valuation - Missed the Tide, Boat Won’t Rise

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>2024 ECM offerings in the Greater China logistics &amp; transport segment included TS Lines (in Hong Kong), SF Holding(Hong Kong), and BingEx (US)</li>
<li>Generally, recent share offerings in the segment have <em>not</em> performed well at all</li>
<li>Looking to 2025, we see several deals, including SHEIN and a possible Didi return</li>
</ul>


2024 ECM offerings in the Greater China logistics &amp; transport segment included TS Lines (in Hong Kong), SF Holding(Hong Kong), and BingEx (US)
Generally, recent share offerings in the segment have not performed well at all
Looking to 2025, we see several deals, including SHEIN and a possible Didi return


2024 Greater China Logistics & Transport ECM Review & A Look at Potential 2025 Deals

China

PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company focuses on digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from the increased productivity and new opportunities. PDD Holdings has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities for its underlying businesses.

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PDD Holdings (PDD US)

Pinduoduo: The Odd One Out

Expected to outperform the competition, possibly through government support, we think PDD could be the safest route to invest in the battered...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Tencent Investee Selldown - The US$120bn Global Overhang

There have been multiple reports that Tencent (700 HK) plans to trim its investment portfolio over the remainder of the year. We look at Tencent's...

Sumeet Singh

Miniso: Genuinely Undervalued & A Decent Long Hedge to Increase Short Exposure to Chinese E-Commerce

It might take some time for Miniso to generate multi-bagger returns on a stand-alone basis, but it could still help investors generate sizable...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

GoTo IPO - Valuation - Missed the Tide, Boat Won’t Rise

GoTo aims to raise around US$1.25bn from a local listing, which will mainly be targeted at domestic investors. In this note, we talk about its...

Sumeet Singh

2024 Greater China Logistics & Transport ECM Review & A Look at Potential 2025 Deals

After 2024 began with raised expectations, actual ECM activity in the Greater China logistics & transportation space disappointed. But there are a...

Tracking Traffic

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