Forensic Analyst

Jason Yap, CFA

Forensic Accounting

In Q1 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a> reported strong topline growth (+39% yoy) that exceeded consensus expectations mainly due to strong user growth (+29% yoy), with more than 500 million reported Annual Active Users (AAU).  Out of which, 80% new active users came from lower tier cities, which reflects JD's strategy shift to target the fast growing lower tier markets (下沉市场) through its newly formed Jingxi business group. 
As JD continues its transition from the largest retail company in China (by revenue) to a supply chain-based technology and service provider, we can likely expect a moderated revenue growth for its core JD Retail business and incremental investments in New Initiatives and its logistics and fulfillment capabilities, with a key focus on Jingxi.
In Q1 2021, JD announced that Jingxi related businesses, will be carved out from JD Retail and reported under the New Businesses segment.  Having grown to a certain size, the change in reporting segment is not a jingxi or surprise. Instead, JD has been telegraphing the growing role of Jingxi and, more broadly, the moderating pace of growth of its core businesses in mature markets during recent quarter-end earnings calls and in related disclosures.   
This article discusses how to analyse earnings calls and disclosures using a forensic approach, with a view to gain relevant insights on JD's future prospects.

In Q1 2021, JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) reported strong topline growth (+39% yoy) that exceeded consensus expectations mainly due to strong user growth (+29% yoy), with more than 500 million reported Annual Active Users (AAU).  Out of which, 80% new active users came from lower tier cities, which reflects JD's strategy shift to target the fast growing lower tier markets (下沉市场) through its newly formed Jingxi business group. 
As JD continues its transition from the largest retail company in China (by revenue) to a supply chain-based technology and service provider, we can likely expect a moderated revenue growth for its core JD Retail business and incremental investments in New Initiatives and its logistics and fulfillment capabilities, with a key focus on Jingxi.
In Q1 2021, JD announced that Jingxi related businesses, will be carved out from JD Retail and reported under the New Businesses segment.  Having grown to a certain size, the change in reporting segment is not a jingxi or surprise. Instead, JD has been telegraphing the growing role of Jingxi and, more broadly, the moderating pace of growth of its core businesses in mature markets during recent quarter-end earnings calls and in related disclosures.   
This article discusses how to analyse earnings calls and disclosures using a forensic approach, with a view to gain relevant insights on JD's future prospects. 

JD - Analysing Earnings Calls and Disclosures Using a Forensic Approach

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>700 HK: &lt;Black Myth: WuKong&gt; Tops Steam’s Most Played Games Now with Over 1.2 million Concurrent Players (+)</li>
<li>700 HK: Tencent’s &lt;Rock Kingdom: World&gt; Begins Beta Testing Today: iOS Only, Android/PC Versions Not Yet Available (+)</li>
<li>700 HK: &lt;Honor of Kings&gt; Matchmaking Algorithm to Be Overhauled (+)</li>
</ul>


700 HK: &lt;Black Myth: WuKong&gt; Tops Steam’s Most Played Games Now with Over 1.2 million Concurrent Players (+)
700 HK: Tencent’s &lt;Rock Kingdom: World&gt; Begins Beta Testing Today: iOS Only, Android/PC Versions Not Yet Available (+)
700 HK: &lt;Honor of Kings&gt; Matchmaking Algorithm to Be Overhauled (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:700 HK/LCKNY US/NTES US/BABA US/PDD US/AMZN US/SHEIN/3690 HK

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>AntFin is looking to raise around US$400m by selling around 2% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a>.</li>
<li>Ant Group had earlier sold some of its stake in Nov 2023 and Mar 2024, with the deals producing a mixed bag result.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


AntFin is looking to raise around US$400m by selling around 2% of Zomato (ZOMATO IN).
Ant Group had earlier sold some of its stake in Nov 2023 and Mar 2024, with the deals producing a mixed bag result.
In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Zomato Placement - Momentum Is Very Strong, past Ant Related Deals Have Been Mixed

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst, ChartSmarter

Douglas Busch

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst

ChartSmarter

ChartSmarter is a service dedicated to the art of technical analysis.

On a daily basis we write up actionable ideas on a specific, major S&P sector on both the long and short side, in an easy yet thorough way. In the notes we give precise entries and exits, while looking to capture the "meat" of a trend.

Technical Analysis.

Technical Analysis

Alibaba Group Holding  / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Gold breaks above MONTHLY bull flag suggesting possible move to 3000.</li>
<li>Is China ready to duplicate prior move we witnessed in Nikkei?</li>
<li>BABA looks technically attractive and could reach par by year-end.</li>
</ul>


Gold breaks above MONTHLY bull flag suggesting possible move to 3000.
Is China ready to duplicate prior move we witnessed in Nikkei?
BABA looks technically attractive and could reach par by year-end.


Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Alibaba’s revenue grew by 4% YoY in 1Q25 due to the stagnancy in e-commerce.</li>
<li>However, many expansion plans follow, including overseas market, physical stores, and fresh food wholesale.</li>
<li>We set an upside of 51% and a price target of HK$115 for March 2025.</li>
</ul>


Alibaba’s revenue grew by 4% YoY in 1Q25 due to the stagnancy in e-commerce.
However, many expansion plans follow, including overseas market, physical stores, and fresh food wholesale.
We set an upside of 51% and a price target of HK$115 for March 2025.


Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA): 1Q25, Growth Lower Than Expectation, But Many Expansion Plans Following

China

PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company focuses on digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from the increased productivity and new opportunities. PDD Holdings has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities for its underlying businesses.

Price Gauge
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PDD Holdings (PDD US)

JD - Analysing Earnings Calls and Disclosures Using a Forensic Approach

JD has at times revised disclosures possibly to conceal growth or margin weakness. We discuss how to analyse earnings calls and disclosures using a...

Jason Yap, CFA

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:700 HK/LCKNY US/NTES US/BABA US/PDD US/AMZN US/SHEIN/3690 HK

Popular games like <black wukong myth:=""> and <honor of kings> are making waves on Steam and in beta testing, while changes are coming to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Time To Buy China/Gold

Gold breaks above bull flag, China may follow Nikkei's move, BABA could hit par by year-end. Region and the precious metal could power higher into...

Douglas Busch

Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA): 1Q25, Growth Lower Than Expectation, But Many Expansion Plans Following

Alibaba’s revenue grew by 4% YoY in 1Q25 due to the stagnancy in e-commerce. However, many expansion plans follow, including overseas market,...

Ming Lu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

JD - Analysing Earnings Calls and Disclosures Using a Forensic Approach

JD has at times revised disclosures possibly to conceal growth or margin weakness. We discuss how to analyse earnings calls and disclosures using a...

Jason Yap, CFA

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:700 HK/LCKNY US/NTES US/BABA US/PDD US/AMZN US/SHEIN/3690 HK

​Popular games like <black wukong myth:=""> and <honor of kings> are making waves on Steam and in beta testing, while changes are coming to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Zomato Placement - Momentum Is Very Strong, past Ant Related Deals Have Been Mixed

AntFin is looking to raise around US$400m by selling around 2% of Zomato (ZOMATO IN). Past selldown's by AntFin have produced mixed results.

Sumeet Singh

Time To Buy China/Gold

​Gold breaks above bull flag, China may follow Nikkei's move, BABA could hit par by year-end. Region and the precious metal could power higher into...

Douglas Busch

Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA): 1Q25, Growth Lower Than Expectation, But Many Expansion Plans Following

Alibaba’s revenue grew by 4% YoY in 1Q25 due to the stagnancy in e-commerce. However, many expansion plans follow, including overseas market,...

Ming Lu

Popular games like <black wukong myth:=""> and <honor of kings> are making waves on Steam and in beta testing, while changes are coming to...

Gold breaks above bull flag, China may follow Nikkei's move, BABA could hit par by year-end. Region and the precious metal could power higher into...