Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>PC Partners has solid bull base line support to stage a fresh bull cycle. Old high support and key lows rest at the 7.50 level. </li>
<li>RSI is due to rally off of the bull wedge breakout support. Buy volumes are constructive on strength with weak sell volume on recent weakness (underlying bullish).</li>
<li>12.50 and 14 bull targets with the later the hurdle to clear to open the way higher.</li>
</ul>


PC Partners has solid bull base line support to stage a fresh bull cycle. Old high support and key lows rest at the 7.50 level. 
RSI is due to rally off of the bull wedge breakout support. Buy volumes are constructive on strength with weak sell volume on recent weakness (underlying bullish).
12.50 and 14 bull targets with the later the hurdle to clear to open the way higher.


PC Partner (1263) 7.50 Buy Zone for New Chart Highs

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> announces an off-market buyback, there will be demand to replace the shares bought back, re-based higher.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-east-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:341:1" rel="noopener">Bank of East Asia (23 HK)</a>is trading cheap as Elliott throws in the towel.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sydney-airport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19063:1" rel="noopener">Sydney Airport (SYD AU)</a> selldown could be larger than people expect, and it is a decent chance to put on the arb trade. </li>
</ul>


If BHP Group (BHP AU) announces an off-market buyback, there will be demand to replace the shares bought back, re-based higher.

Bank of East Asia (23 HK)is trading cheap as Elliott throws in the towel.
The Sydney Airport (SYD AU) selldown could be larger than people expect, and it is a decent chance to put on the arb trade. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: BHP, Bank Of East Asia, Sydney Airport, Boral

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.</li>
<li>The past week has seen Insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (GRAB US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumber-alfaria-trijaya-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15659:1" rel="noopener">Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semen-indonesia-persero-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11161:1" rel="noopener">Semen Indonesia (Gresik) (SMGR IJ)</a>, and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mapletree-commercial-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:106:1" rel="noopener">Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT SP)</a> deal.</li>
<li>We also explored online groceries in South-East Asia as we see increasing interest in the space plus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/nicolas-van-broekhoven-24a66c2d-bca4-4f5b-adda-c4e2bcc509f4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208" rel="noopener">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> also lays out his top picks for 2022 performance.</li>
</ul>


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.
The past week has seen Insights on Grab (GRAB US), Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ), Semen Indonesia (Gresik) (SMGR IJ), and the Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT SP) deal.
We also explored online groceries in South-East Asia as we see increasing interest in the space plus Nicolas Van Broekhoven also lays out his top picks for 2022 performance.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Grab Expands, Alfamart, and Mapletree Mega-Merger

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pc-partner-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8492:1" rel="noopener">PC Partner (1263 HK)</a> is a "funny" stock to follow. On a full-year basis, the company has always been profitable since its IPO in 2012. Yet investors value the company as if it is perenially going out of business. The company mostly trades at a single-digit P/E and has zero sell-side coverage. Management has been mostly shareholder-friendly and paid out very regular dividends to long-term shareholders.Since our last insight in August we have received many questions from old and new investors: can this last? Surely, this must be a one-off profit for Pc Partner? Are the numbers real? How do you value this business? What is going on here? Why is it so cheap?After weeks of speaking to competitors and industry contacts in Taiwan, the US, and Singapore we are fundamentally more optimistic that this period of supernatural profits is not behind us for a while. We are making this statement knowing full-well that the industry that Pc Partner is a part of can be very fickle and the outlook can change quickly.All that being said we believe (oh oh, the most dangerous words!)this time is different. Supply-chain constraints and strong gaming demand coupled with TSMC implementing the largest price increase in a decade have meant that 3Q21 pricing has continued to increase over 1H21. We are now entering seasonally the strongest quarter with all indications that pricing will remain exceptional. Bottom line: Pc Partner has been wrongly valued by investors for too long. We are raising our forecast for FY21 profits substantially, make some FY22 scenario analysis for the bears and raise our Fair Value to 18 HKD, or 143% upside from here. *our headline is not a typo: At yesterday's close of 7.4 HKD, this stock trades at 1.2x P/E and 40% FY21 dividend yield. More details are below the fold.

PC Partner (1263 HK) is a "funny" stock to follow. On a full-year basis, the company has always been profitable since its IPO in 2012. Yet investors value the company as if it is perenially going out of business. The company mostly trades at a single-digit P/E and has zero sell-side coverage. Management has been mostly shareholder-friendly and paid out very regular dividends to long-term shareholders.Since our last insight in August we have received many questions from old and new investors: can this last? Surely, this must be a one-off profit for Pc Partner? Are the numbers real? How do you value this business? What is going on here? Why is it so cheap?After weeks of speaking to competitors and industry contacts in Taiwan, the US, and Singapore we are fundamentally more optimistic that this period of supernatural profits is not behind us for a while. We are making this statement knowing full-well that the industry that Pc Partner is a part of can be very fickle and the outlook can change quickly.All that being said we believe (oh oh, the most dangerous words!)this time is different. Supply-chain constraints and strong gaming demand coupled with TSMC implementing the largest price increase in a decade have meant that 3Q21 pricing has continued to increase over 1H21. We are now entering seasonally the strongest quarter with all indications that pricing will remain exceptional. Bottom line: Pc Partner has been wrongly valued by investors for too long. We are raising our forecast for FY21 profits substantially, make some FY22 scenario analysis for the bears and raise our Fair Value to 18 HKD, or 143% upside from here. *our headline is not a typo: At yesterday's close of 7.4 HKD, this stock trades at 1.2x P/E and 40% FY21 dividend yield. More details are below the fold. 

PC Partner: Just the Wrong Price; Raising Fair Value Est to 18 HKD; 1.2x P/E and 40% Div Yield FY21

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pc-partner-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8492:1" rel="noopener">PC Partner (1263 HK)</a> has been a small-cap gem we have written about on numerous occasions. The company is not a buy &amp; hold stock but in September 2020 we called it "very cheap" <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pc-partner-poor-man-s-play-on-nvidia-part-2-trades-at-2x-fy20-p-e-and-14-dividend-yield" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43227" rel="noopener">PC Partner: Poor-Man's Play on Nvidia  (Part 2); Trades at 2x FY20 P/E and 14% Dividend Yield</a> when it was trading at 1.2 HKD/share. Fast forward one year and the company just reported close to 1 billion HKD in net profit and is paying an interim dividend of 0.84 HKD on 1H21. This is a 14% interim dividend yield on a stock that closed at 5.82 HKD recently. While a year ago the company was in a net debt position today the balance sheet is rock solid and approximately 65% of the market cap is cash.So far Mr. Market has met last Friday's results with a big yawn as the stock barely moved. Investors are assuming results will fall off a cliff in 2H21 and into 2022. Now, what if we told you 2H21 results could grow over 1H21? Cash on the balance sheet has ballooned to 65% of market cap and even taking into account the large interim distribution we forecast cash to grow to over 100% of current market cap by late 2021! Pc Partner has a history of doing shareholder friendly things (buybacks, tender offers, special dividends) and we expect this to continue. The wild card with Pc Partner is if the tight supply and fantastic pricing of VGA's will last for just one more quarter or well into 2022.For now there is no indication that 3Q trends have changed meaningfully from 2Q21. This implies that bumper profits will continue at least this quarter. Historically, 4Q is always Pc Partner's strongest quarter and if Covid strikes again in EU/USA winter season we see no reason why demand for PC's/gaming will drop off sharply. As echoed by several car manufacturers and chip suppliers we see no end in sight for chip shortages keeping ASP's elevated. This gets us to a scenario (not guarantee!) that 2H21 profits might actually be higher vs 1H21 profits. It would be an understatement to say that Pc Partner is NOT priced for this scenario at all.Fair Value raised to 10 HKD (2x 5HKD FY2021 EPS estimate). Major risk here is the VGA supply situation improves drastically and ASP's fall. The company is scheduled to hold a conf call with investors next week and we look forward to more guidance at this time.

PC Partner (1263 HK) has been a small-cap gem we have written about on numerous occasions. The company is not a buy &amp; hold stock but in September 2020 we called it "very cheap" PC Partner: Poor-Man's Play on Nvidia  (Part 2); Trades at 2x FY20 P/E and 14% Dividend Yield when it was trading at 1.2 HKD/share. Fast forward one year and the company just reported close to 1 billion HKD in net profit and is paying an interim dividend of 0.84 HKD on 1H21. This is a 14% interim dividend yield on a stock that closed at 5.82 HKD recently. While a year ago the company was in a net debt position today the balance sheet is rock solid and approximately 65% of the market cap is cash.So far Mr. Market has met last Friday's results with a big yawn as the stock barely moved. Investors are assuming results will fall off a cliff in 2H21 and into 2022. Now, what if we told you 2H21 results could grow over 1H21? Cash on the balance sheet has ballooned to 65% of market cap and even taking into account the large interim distribution we forecast cash to grow to over 100% of current market cap by late 2021! Pc Partner has a history of doing shareholder friendly things (buybacks, tender offers, special dividends) and we expect this to continue. The wild card with Pc Partner is if the tight supply and fantastic pricing of VGA's will last for just one more quarter or well into 2022.For now there is no indication that 3Q trends have changed meaningfully from 2Q21. This implies that bumper profits will continue at least this quarter. Historically, 4Q is always Pc Partner's strongest quarter and if Covid strikes again in EU/USA winter season we see no reason why demand for PC's/gaming will drop off sharply. As echoed by several car manufacturers and chip suppliers we see no end in sight for chip shortages keeping ASP's elevated. This gets us to a scenario (not guarantee!) that 2H21 profits might actually be higher vs 1H21 profits. It would be an understatement to say that Pc Partner is NOT priced for this scenario at all.Fair Value raised to 10 HKD (2x 5HKD FY2021 EPS estimate). Major risk here is the VGA supply situation improves drastically and ASP's fall. The company is scheduled to hold a conf call with investors next week and we look forward to more guidance at this time.

PC Partner: 1H21 Off the Chart Results To Be Followed by Large Div Stream; 65% of Mkt Cap Is Cash

Hong Kong

PC Partner Group Ltd. is principally engaged in the design, development and manufacture of video graphics cards. The Group manufactures various electronics components and products for customers under its electronics manufacturing services division and also manufactures other personal computers related products.

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PC Partner (1263 HK)

PC Partner (1263) 7.50 Buy Zone for New Chart Highs

PC Partners has solid bull base line support to stage a fresh bull cycle. Old high support and key lows rest at the 7.50 level.

Thomas Schroeder

Last Week in Event SPACE: BHP, Bank Of East Asia, Sydney Airport, Boral

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Grab Expands, Alfamart, and Mapletree Mega-Merger

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity...

Angus Mackintosh

PC Partner: Just the Wrong Price; Raising Fair Value Est to 18 HKD; 1.2x P/E and 40% Div Yield FY21

Pc Partner has been wrongly valued for too long. We significantly raise FY21 earnings, show how FY22 earnings could look like, and present a matrix...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

PC Partner: 1H21 Off the Chart Results To Be Followed by Large Div Stream; 65% of Mkt Cap Is Cash

PC Partner reported record 1H21 results and declared a 0.84 HKD interim dividend. Mr.Market assumes results will not remain this good in 2H21 but...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

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