Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-March in April. There are companies with significant float changes from end-September and/or end-December.</li>
<li>The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.</li>
<li>Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 14 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 7 could see passive outflows in May.</li>
</ul>


Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-March in April. There are companies with significant float changes from end-September and/or end-December.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 14 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 7 could see passive outflows in May.


India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in May

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>We explore Klarna’s and Stripe’s IPO prospects and valuations based on recent share transactions; Nuvei and Cielo are close to being taken private, with Worldpay now controlled by private equity</li>
<li>Nuvei and Worldpay both grew by acquisition but failed to deliver on the market’s expected returns, in our view, ending up under PE ownership; is Nexi a potential PE target?</li>
<li>We retain Visa as a core holding and also keep PagSeguro and PayPal as buys, replacing Cielo with new peer group addition Shift4; we keep our sell rating on Affirm</li>
</ul>


We explore Klarna’s and Stripe’s IPO prospects and valuations based on recent share transactions; Nuvei and Cielo are close to being taken private, with Worldpay now controlled by private equity
Nuvei and Worldpay both grew by acquisition but failed to deliver on the market’s expected returns, in our view, ending up under PE ownership; is Nexi a potential PE target?
We retain Visa as a core holding and also keep PagSeguro and PayPal as buys, replacing Cielo with new peer group addition Shift4; we keep our sell rating on Affirm


Payment Companies – Potential IPOs, Select Companies Being Taken Private and Sector Overview

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, Hong Kong appears to be heading towards its first US$100m+ IPO for the year.</li>
<li>For placements, after a flurry of placements in the prior week, past week was relatively quiet with only the US$2bn <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:327:1" rel="noopener">ITC Ltd (ITC IN)</a> block.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, Hong Kong appears to be heading towards its first US$100m+ IPO for the year.
For placements, after a flurry of placements in the prior week, past week was relatively quiet with only the US$2bn ITC Ltd (ITC IN) block.


ECM Weekly (18th Mar 2024) - ITC, Interglobe (Indigo), MS&AD, GlobalWafer, Belle, Auntea, Trial

<ul>
<li>In Feb 2024,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/british-american-tobacco-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21828:1" rel="noopener">BAT's</a> management stated that they were reviewing their stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:327:1" rel="noopener">ITC Ltd (ITC IN)</a>.  The news of a possible selldown by BAT was leaked again earlier today.</li>
<li>BAT has owned its stake in ITC for over a century and remains its largest shareholder.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


In Feb 2024,  BAT's management stated that they were reviewing their stake in ITC Ltd (ITC IN).  The news of a possible selldown by BAT was leaked again earlier today.
BAT has owned its stake in ITC for over a century and remains its largest shareholder.
In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


ITC $2bn Placement - Very Well Flagged but Still Won’t Be an Easy One to Digest, Won’t Do an Indigo

<ul>
<li>Earlier this month, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/british-american-tobacco-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21828:1" rel="noopener">British American Tobacco (BATS LN)</a>’s management stated that they were reviewing their stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:327:1" rel="noopener">ITC Ltd (ITC IN)</a> to enhance its balance sheet flexibility.</li>
<li>BAT has owned its stake in ITC for over a century and remains its largest shareholder.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the possible deal structure and dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Earlier this month, British American Tobacco (BATS LN)’s management stated that they were reviewing their stake in ITC Ltd (ITC IN) to enhance its balance sheet flexibility.
BAT has owned its stake in ITC for over a century and remains its largest shareholder.
In this note, we talk about the possible deal structure and dynamics.


BAT’s Possible US$2.5bn ITC Selldown - Will Be Well Flagged but Still Won’t Be an Easy One to Digest

India

One 97 Communications Limited provides payment solutions. The Company provides online services such as hotel booking, top ups, data processing, games, mobile content, and bill payments. One 97 Communications Limited serves customers worldwide.

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Paytm (PAYTM IN)

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in May

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices. Passive trackers will need to trade over 3...

Brian Freitas

Payment Companies – Potential IPOs, Select Companies Being Taken Private and Sector Overview

In payments, PagSeguro, Visa, PayPal and Shift4 are buys while Affirm remains a sell. Klarna and Stripe prep for their IPOs, Nuvei and Cielo are...

Victor Galliano

ECM Weekly (18th Mar 2024) - ITC, Interglobe (Indigo), MS&AD, GlobalWafer, Belle, Auntea, Trial

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

ITC $2bn Placement - Very Well Flagged but Still Won’t Be an Easy One to Digest, Won’t Do an Indigo

BAT aims to raise around US$2bn via selling 3.5% of ITC. The deal is a very well flagged one but its also relatively a very large deal.

Sumeet Singh

BAT’s Possible US$2.5bn ITC Selldown - Will Be Well Flagged but Still Won’t Be an Easy One to Digest

The deal is now live for a target raising of US$2bn, which will drop BAT's stake to 25.5%. The news of the deal was leaked earlier today so its...

Sumeet Singh

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