Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>  shares have now fallen 12% since it announced Q4 20 results and finished its massive share repurchase program. That move has largely been driven by an expansion in the holding company discount which sits at 38% now versus the low 20s earlier in the month.  The stock has largely given up YTD gains (now +0.4%) and fell a further 2% today even as news that another Vision Fund investment, PayTM, could go public at a premium to its last private round and take Softbank one step closer to reaching its 20+ liquidity event target for Vision Fund. We have updated our holding company discount and related tables below.

Softbank Group (9984 JP)  shares have now fallen 12% since it announced Q4 20 results and finished its massive share repurchase program. That move has largely been driven by an expansion in the holding company discount which sits at 38% now versus the low 20s earlier in the month.  The stock has largely given up YTD gains (now +0.4%) and fell a further 2% today even as news that another Vision Fund investment, PayTM, could go public at a premium to its last private round and take Softbank one step closer to reaching its 20+ liquidity event target for Vision Fund. We have updated our holding company discount and related tables below.

Softbank Group - As Another Investment Moves to IPO, YTD Gains Evaporate

Coupang’s monster IPO is very likely to be the highlight of Vision Fund 1 and provides a solid counterpoint to the WeWork debacle early in the IPO cycle but there remains a significant number of portfolio companies still to come. At Q3 results, Softbank talked about an ongoing parade of companies coming to market with 10-15 annual events but there is a push to get companies to list whilst markets are still receptive and FY21 could see up to 20 companies hit public markets.That is positive for Softbank shares which tend to rise in anticipation of surfaced value, again assuming the IPO market remains open. It also serves to highlight the main risk for Softbank shares as a sustained tech sell-off would lower the value of the Vision Fund portfolio, increase concerns about Northstar and lower expectations for the current crop of IPO hopefuls.<h2>Highlights</h2>Softbank Vision Fund could see up to 20 companies hitting public markets 2021 should favorable conditions continue. Vision Fund says it is encouraging companies to go public whilst conditions are still receptive and Q4 (Mar) can already boast of two listings, a SPAC merger and two more listings in process. Leading candidates to go public include Didi Chuxing and GrabCoupang upside alone doubles total returns and will boost Vision Fund to its best quarter ever.  As of mid-March, Vision Fund’s public portfolio is up $27bn versus $13bn in Q2, $8bn in Q2 and $2bn in Q1. On the aggregate, it more than doubles the Vision Fund total return There may upside in the private portfolio too as Cruise raised funds in January at a 58% premium. It is usually a mug’s game trying to figure out where private valuations will end up but the Cruise stake is large enough to outweigh a lot of smaller changes for other portfolio companies. Cruise raised $2bn in January at a $30bn valuation, a 58% premium to where Softbank invested and a possible $1.3bn unrealized gain ($2.25bn &gt; $3.55bn)Portfolio company View went public through a SPAC merger but at an apparent loss for Vision Fund.  Smart glass maker View’s SPAC merger closed 9 March, the day before the Coupang IPO but it appears Softbank’s original $1.1bn investment is worth barely half that. That is a fraction of the Coupang upside but is a reminder that valuations can go both ways. Other problem investments include Greensill, Katerra, Oyo and OakNorth

Coupang’s monster IPO is very likely to be the highlight of Vision Fund 1 and provides a solid counterpoint to the WeWork debacle early in the IPO cycle but there remains a significant number of portfolio companies still to come. At Q3 results, Softbank talked about an ongoing parade of companies coming to market with 10-15 annual events but there is a push to get companies to list whilst markets are still receptive and FY21 could see up to 20 companies hit public markets.That is positive for Softbank shares which tend to rise in anticipation of surfaced value, again assuming the IPO market remains open. It also serves to highlight the main risk for Softbank shares as a sustained tech sell-off would lower the value of the Vision Fund portfolio, increase concerns about Northstar and lower expectations for the current crop of IPO hopefuls.HighlightsSoftbank Vision Fund could see up to 20 companies hitting public markets 2021 should favorable conditions continue. Vision Fund says it is encouraging companies to go public whilst conditions are still receptive and Q4 (Mar) can already boast of two listings, a SPAC merger and two more listings in process. Leading candidates to go public include Didi Chuxing and GrabCoupang upside alone doubles total returns and will boost Vision Fund to its best quarter ever.  As of mid-March, Vision Fund’s public portfolio is up $27bn versus $13bn in Q2, $8bn in Q2 and $2bn in Q1. On the aggregate, it more than doubles the Vision Fund total return There may upside in the private portfolio too as Cruise raised funds in January at a 58% premium. It is usually a mug’s game trying to figure out where private valuations will end up but the Cruise stake is large enough to outweigh a lot of smaller changes for other portfolio companies. Cruise raised $2bn in January at a $30bn valuation, a 58% premium to where Softbank invested and a possible $1.3bn unrealized gain ($2.25bn &gt; $3.55bn)Portfolio company View went public through a SPAC merger but at an apparent loss for Vision Fund.  Smart glass maker View’s SPAC merger closed 9 March, the day before the Coupang IPO but it appears Softbank’s original $1.1bn investment is worth barely half that. That is a fraction of the Coupang upside but is a reminder that valuations can go both ways. Other problem investments include Greensill, Katerra, Oyo and OakNorth

Softbank Group - Vision Fund’s Race to Liquidity

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

ASA Capital Management

ASA Capital Management is a boutique Research and Investment Advisory firm focusing on primary research in India. ASA provides bespoke research services to Institutional Clients with a focus on due diligence backed with primary research, Field Trips & Channel Checks.

Our objective with this weekly is to highlight notable developments in the India internet and consumer sector focusing on public and private companies. The sub-sectors covered include payment providers, e-commerce retailers,  social media platforms and consumer companies.
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US)</a> monopoly is challenged. Indian entrepreneurs and application developers are hell bent on developing India's local Appstore which will directly compete with the Google PlayStore and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple Inc (AAPL US)</a> 's AppStore. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walmart-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11134:1" rel="noopener">Walmart (WMT US)</a> eyes its biggest every India investment of USD 25 billion in Tata Group in order to compete in India's ongoing SuperApp race. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reliance-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:198:1" rel="noopener">Reliance Industries (RIL IN)</a> 's JioMart feels out its subscription commerce model in India.</li>
<li>Smartphones to now cost more in India as the government hikes the import duty on displays.</li>
</ul>

Our objective with this weekly is to highlight notable developments in the India internet and consumer sector focusing on public and private companies. The sub-sectors covered include payment providers, e-commerce retailers,  social media platforms and consumer companies.


Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US) monopoly is challenged. Indian entrepreneurs and application developers are hell bent on developing India's local Appstore which will directly compete with the Google PlayStore and Apple Inc (AAPL US) 's AppStore. 

Walmart (WMT US) eyes its biggest every India investment of USD 25 billion in Tata Group in order to compete in India's ongoing SuperApp race. 

Reliance Industries (RIL IN) 's JioMart feels out its subscription commerce model in India.
Smartphones to now cost more in India as the government hikes the import duty on displays.


India Internet & Consumer Weekly | Indian App Store, Walmart, JioMart

India Financials

Saumya Agarwal

YONO, State Bank of India’s Fintech platform, has suddenly become the talk of the town, after being valued at ~ US$40billion by its Chairman. There are also talks, that YONO will be subsequently hived off as a separate entity and will allow small finance banks and regional rural banks to use its platform.With a rapidly growing customer base and a reported profit in the June quarter, YONO is looking to harness multiple opportunities in-house as well as externally.Is YONO just another digital platform OR Does it have the potential to become a ‘Dark Horse’ of the Indian Fintech space?

YONO, State Bank of India’s Fintech platform, has suddenly become the talk of the town, after being valued at ~ US$40billion by its Chairman. There are also talks, that YONO will be subsequently hived off as a separate entity and will allow small finance banks and regional rural banks to use its platform.With a rapidly growing customer base and a reported profit in the June quarter, YONO is looking to harness multiple opportunities in-house as well as externally.Is YONO just another digital platform OR Does it have the potential to become a ‘Dark Horse’ of the Indian Fintech space? 

YONO – Just ‘Another’ Digital Platform OR the ‘Dark Horse’ of the Indian Fintech Space?

Private Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zerodha" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29664:1" rel="noopener">Zerodha (ZERO IN)</a> is attractively placed in the Indian Broking Industry. The core focus on both, the concept of self-service and a tech-savvy trader/investor has helped Zerodha gain market share which it is likely to maintain, in spite of competition inching up. With one of the lowest penetration of shares as a percentage of household savings, the industry dynamics remain favourable. 
With presence across all asset classes for trading/investing and future plans to offer US Equities to clients and asset management services, Zerodha is likely to remain the force to reckon with.

Zerodha (ZERO IN) is attractively placed in the Indian Broking Industry. The core focus on both, the concept of self-service and a tech-savvy trader/investor has helped Zerodha gain market share which it is likely to maintain, in spite of competition inching up. With one of the lowest penetration of shares as a percentage of household savings, the industry dynamics remain favourable. 
With presence across all asset classes for trading/investing and future plans to offer US Equities to clients and asset management services, Zerodha is likely to remain the force to reckon with. 

India

One 97 Communications Limited provides payment solutions. The Company provides online services such as hotel booking, top ups, data processing, games, mobile content, and bill payments. One 97 Communications Limited serves customers worldwide.

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Paytm (PAYTM IN)

Softbank Group - As Another Investment Moves to IPO, YTD Gains Evaporate

Softbank Group shares have given up all their YTD gains on an expansion in the discount to fair value to 38% a level last reached in December...

Kirk Boodry

Softbank Group - Vision Fund’s Race to Liquidity

Vision Fund is pushing portfolio companies to go public (up to 20 this year!) which should help the discount but also depends a lot on how tech...

Kirk Boodry

India Internet & Consumer Weekly | Indian App Store, Walmart, JioMart

Our objective with this weekly is to highlight notable developments in the India internet and consumer sector focusing on public and private...

Pranav Bhavsar

YONO – Just ‘Another’ Digital Platform OR the ‘Dark Horse’ of the Indian Fintech Space?

YONO, State Bank of India’s Fintech platform, has suddenly become the talk of the town, after being valued at ~ US$40billion by its Chairman. There...

Saumya Agarwal

Zerodha | India's Own Robinhood

What’s the primary reason for the Insight (price action, news flow, upcoming events etc)? What action would you suggest to an investor?

Pranav Bhavsar

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