Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Near the end of the review period, we see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 6 from LargeCap to MidCap, 8 from SmallCap to MidCap and vice versa.</li>
<li>One spin-off should be added to the MidCap segment, while a bunch of recent listings will be added to the SmallCap segment.</li>
<li>Stock migrating upwards have outperformed stocks migrating downwards and we expect there could be some mean reversion from the middle of January.</li>
</ul>


Near the end of the review period, we see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 6 from LargeCap to MidCap, 8 from SmallCap to MidCap and vice versa.
One spin-off should be added to the MidCap segment, while a bunch of recent listings will be added to the SmallCap segment.
Stock migrating upwards have outperformed stocks migrating downwards and we expect there could be some mean reversion from the middle of January.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2022): A Bunch of Migrations

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Once again, our shorts – especially Kakao Pay and Paytm – were more successful than our longs, given the protracted turbulent market conditions</li>
<li>For 2023, we favour Visa in the card network megacaps, adding Wise to the buys and we stick with PagSeguro; we drop Nexi from the buy list</li>
<li>Among our shorts, we stick with our negative view on DLocal, given its high take-rate and demanding valuations, and we stay negative on Kakao Pay due to its fundamental over-valuation</li>
</ul>


Once again, our shorts – especially Kakao Pay and Paytm – were more successful than our longs, given the protracted turbulent market conditions
For 2023, we favour Visa in the card network megacaps, adding Wise to the buys and we stick with PagSeguro; we drop Nexi from the buy list
Among our shorts, we stick with our negative view on DLocal, given its high take-rate and demanding valuations, and we stay negative on Kakao Pay due to its fundamental over-valuation


Payment Companies – 2022 in Review, Our High Conviction Calls for 2023

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>GoTo pre-IPO shareholders were released from the lockup on 1st Dec 2022, which led to a 47% slide in its share price.</li>
<li>We had written about the upcoming lockup expiry in our earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/goto-ipo-lockup-expiry-us-13bn-lockup-release-or-in-other-words-the-real-ipo" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:84796" rel="noopener">GoTo IPO Lockup Expiry - US$13bn Lockup Release or in Other Words, the Real IPO</a>.</li>
<li>While the price appears to be settling down now, given the intra-day trading limits in Indonesia,  very little volumes have been transacted compared to the shares released from lockup.</li>
</ul>


GoTo pre-IPO shareholders were released from the lockup on 1st Dec 2022, which led to a 47% slide in its share price.
We had written about the upcoming lockup expiry in our earlier note, GoTo IPO Lockup Expiry - US$13bn Lockup Release or in Other Words, the Real IPO.
While the price appears to be settling down now, given the intra-day trading limits in Indonesia,  very little volumes have been transacted compared to the shares released from lockup.


GoTo IPO Lockup Expiry Follow-Up - Has Corrected but Has Traded Relatively Little Volume

Equity Capital Markets

Indian Railway Catering and Tourism / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Government of India (GoI) aims to raise up to US$360m via selling its 5% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-railway-catering-and-tourism-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33951:1" rel="noopener">Indian Railway Catering and Tourism (IRCTC IN)</a>.</li>
<li>This is not the first selldown by GoI and won’t be the last either. However, the stock now looks more expensive than ever.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


Government of India (GoI) aims to raise up to US$360m via selling its 5% stake in Indian Railway Catering and Tourism (IRCTC IN).
This is not the first selldown by GoI and won’t be the last either. However, the stock now looks more expensive than ever.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


IRCTC OFS - Well Flagged Deal for an Overly Well Priced Stock

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a>  is looking to raise INR200bn (US$2.4bn) via a further public offering. The company has obtained board approval and is now awaiting shareholder approval.</li>
<li>It is the flagship company of the Adani Group. The group’s listed entities' stock performance over the past few years has made the founder one of the richest persons globally.</li>
<li>However, the stock is expensive and has had some issues in the past. In this note, we take an early look at the possible placement and its impact.</li>
</ul>



Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)  is looking to raise INR200bn (US$2.4bn) via a further public offering. The company has obtained board approval and is now awaiting shareholder approval.
It is the flagship company of the Adani Group. The group’s listed entities' stock performance over the past few years has made the founder one of the richest persons globally.
However, the stock is expensive and has had some issues in the past. In this note, we take an early look at the possible placement and its impact.


Adani Enterprise US$2.4bn Raising Early Look - Lots to Think About: Controversies, Debt, Grand Plans

India

One 97 Communications Limited provides payment solutions. The Company provides online services such as hotel booking, top ups, data processing, games, mobile content, and bill payments. One 97 Communications Limited serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Paytm (PAYTM IN)

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2022): A Bunch of Migrations

Near the end of the review period, we see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 6 from LargeCap to MidCap, 8 from SmallCap to MidCap and vice...

Brian Freitas

Payment Companies – 2022 in Review, Our High Conviction Calls for 2023

For 2023, we favour Visa in the card network megacaps, adding Wise to the buys and we stick with PagSeguro; for shorts, we remain negative on...

Victor Galliano

GoTo IPO Lockup Expiry Follow-Up - Has Corrected but Has Traded Relatively Little Volume

GoTo pre-IPO shareholders were released from the lockup on 1st Dec 2022, which led to a 47% slide in its share price. While the stock has...

Sumeet Singh

IRCTC OFS - Well Flagged Deal for an Overly Well Priced Stock

Government of India (GoI) aims to raise up to US$360m via selling its 5% stake in Indian Railway Catering and Tourism (IRCTC IN). In this note we...

Sumeet Singh

Adani Enterprise US$2.4bn Raising Early Look - Lots to Think About: Controversies, Debt, Grand Plans

Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) is looking to raise INR200bn (US$2.4bn) via a further public offering. The company has obtained board approval and is...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)