'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><div>
<p>Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oisix-ra-daichi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10145:1" rel="noopener">Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkiso-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6272:1" rel="noopener">Nikkiso (6376 JP).</a></p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/166/825/original/2020-10-23_06-19-12.png?1603401664" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="166825"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/166/826/original/2020-10-23_06-20-11.png?1603401680" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="166826"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></section><hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>8 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 38% Positive / 0% Neutral / 63% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -3.0 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -5.3% Quarter YoY / -1.4% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -2.3ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 25%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>16 Annual • 15 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 31% Positive / 6% Neutral / 63% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 53% Positive / 7% Neutral / 40% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -0.7 points</p></li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •
Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP) and Nikkiso (6376 JP).
Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics
DAILY STATS
8 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 38% Positive / 0% Neutral / 63% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -3.0 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -5.3% Quarter YoY / -1.4% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.3ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 25%
16 Annual • 15 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 31% Positive / 6% Neutral / 63% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 53% Positive / 7% Neutral / 40% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -0.7 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​22 -Chugai, Disco, Benefit One [& Pasona], Oisix

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><div>
<p>Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pasona-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15778:1" rel="noopener">Pasona (2168 JP)</a> and health and beauty product E-commerce play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kitanotatsujin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6126:1" rel="noopener">Kitanotatsujin (2930 JP)</a>.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/165/456/original/2020-10-16_06-21-15.png?1602796892" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="165456"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/165/457/original/2020-10-16_06-22-00.png?1602796932" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="165457"></figure></section>
</div><div><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>73 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 45% Positive / 11% Neutral / 44% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> +0.1 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -10.3% Quarter YoY / -0.9% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -3.1ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 36%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>44 Annual • 18 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 52% Positive / 9% Neutral / 39% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 39% Positive / 0% Neutral / 61% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -0.6 point</p></li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •
Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is Pasona (2168 JP) and health and beauty product E-commerce play Kitanotatsujin (2930 JP).

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS73 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 45% Positive / 11% Neutral / 44% Negative
Average Results Score Change: +0.1 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -10.3% Quarter YoY / -0.9% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -3.1ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 36%
44 Annual • 18 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 52% Positive / 9% Neutral / 39% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 39% Positive / 0% Neutral / 61% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -0.6 point


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​15 - Pasona [Grata], FastRe, Demae-Can, NGK Spark

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/859/original/2020-07-20_05-45-19.png?1595191529" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146859"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pasona-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15778:1" rel="noopener">Pasona (2168 JP)</a></strong>- Pasona was the largest capitalisation company to report on Friday. At the end of June, the company warned on impairment losses at the full-year ended in May 2020. The outcome was a write-off of ¥2.7 billion, resulting in a 63% decline in Comprehensive Income to Common (CITC) to ¥676 million. In the<strong> DETAIL </strong>below, we review the operating performance and valuation of this 'activist trap'.</p><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>4 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 2 Positive / 0 Neutral / 2 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> +2.3</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue</strong>: -20% Quarter YoY / -12.9% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -0.1ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 50%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>5 Annual • 4 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 1 Positive / 0 Neutral / 4 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 1 Positive / 0 Neutral / 3 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -10.0</li>
</ul></div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsPasona (2168 JP)- Pasona was the largest capitalisation company to report on Friday. At the end of June, the company warned on impairment losses at the full-year ended in May 2020. The outcome was a write-off of ¥2.7 billion, resulting in a 63% decline in Comprehensive Income to Common (CITC) to ¥676 million. In the DETAIL below, we review the operating performance and valuation of this 'activist trap'.DAILY STATS4 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 2 Positive / 0 Neutral / 2 Negative

Average Results Score Change: +2.3

Average % Change in Revenue: -20% Quarter YoY / -12.9% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -0.1ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 50%
 5 Annual • 4 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 1 Positive / 0 Neutral / 4 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 1 Positive / 0 Neutral / 3 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -10.0


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 17th July -

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/143/669/original/2020-07-01_05-28-36.png?1593548938" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="143669"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/143/673/original/2020-07-01_06-01-59.png?1593550949" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="143673"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>WASTE NOT.</strong>.- Waste treatment company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiseki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2330:1" rel="noopener">Daiseki (9793 JP)</a>'s first-quarter results saw Net Income decline by 17% on a 1% decline in sales. However, the 19% and 24% cuts to both Operating and Net Income for the first half and full-year highlight the current decline in industrial activity in Japan is likely to be prolonged and, possibly, similar to that seen in 2009. The outlook for Daiseki's listed subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiseki-eco-solution-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13776:1" rel="noopener">Daiseki Eco. Solution (1712 JP)</a> is equally subdued.  Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-display-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8280:1" rel="noopener">Japan Display (6740 JP)</a> annual losses 'improved' to only ¥101 billion at the net level on ¥504 billion in sales, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pasona-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15778:1" rel="noopener">Pasona (2168 JP)</a> revised down the soon-to-be-declared FY2020 Net Income by 66% relative to TTM on further Anime theme park write-offs. LCD/SPE specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marumae-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16671:1" rel="noopener">Marumae (6264 JP)</a> produced the best results of the day driven by a 38% year-on-year increase in quarterly sales.</p>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
<hr>
</div><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>21 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 6 Positive / 3 Neutral / 12 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong>-3.2</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> +0.2% Quarter YoY / -5.9% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change</strong>: 0.0ppt</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>13 Annual • 8 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 4 Positive / 2 Neutral / 7 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 2 Positive / 1 Neutral / 5 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -5.6</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Japan Analytics
WASTE NOT..- Waste treatment company Daiseki (9793 JP)'s first-quarter results saw Net Income decline by 17% on a 1% decline in sales. However, the 19% and 24% cuts to both Operating and Net Income for the first half and full-year highlight the current decline in industrial activity in Japan is likely to be prolonged and, possibly, similar to that seen in 2009. The outlook for Daiseki's listed subsidiary Daiseki Eco. Solution (1712 JP) is equally subdued.  Meanwhile, Japan Display (6740 JP) annual losses 'improved' to only ¥101 billion at the net level on ¥504 billion in sales, while Pasona (2168 JP) revised down the soon-to-be-declared FY2020 Net Income by 66% relative to TTM on further Anime theme park write-offs. LCD/SPE specialist Marumae (6264 JP) produced the best results of the day driven by a 38% year-on-year increase in quarterly sales.

DAILY STATS

21 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 6 Positive / 3 Neutral / 12 Negative

Average Results Score Change:-3.2

Average % Change in Revenue: +0.2% Quarter YoY / -5.9% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: 0.0ppt
 13 Annual • 8 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 4 Positive / 2 Neutral / 7 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 2 Positive / 1 Neutral / 5 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -5.6


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 30th June - Waste Not..

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Henderson Land Development / Event-Driven

<p>My second dose of StubWorld for the week is essentially an exercise in illustrating (as is evident) the <em>truly</em> <em>extraordinary</em> moves over the past week or so, leading to rarely-to-never-seen bifurcations in generally highly correlated pairs. </p>
<p>There are very few Holdco relationships that are behaving.</p>
<p>Incredibly, a pair such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-strategic-hldgs-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15081:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Strategic Hldgs (JS SP)</a>, recently discussed in <em><a href="https://skr.ma/Wi2oo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Jardines: Holy Bargain Basements!</a></em> (and showing signs of reversing today), fails to make the top 10 of "Set-up" trades in my monitor. </p>
<p>Below I touch on some of the more commonly traded Holdcos and where and how the current position compares to their long-term trading pattern. </p>

My second dose of StubWorld for the week is essentially an exercise in illustrating (as is evident) the truly extraordinary moves over the past week or so, leading to rarely-to-never-seen bifurcations in generally highly correlated pairs. 
There are very few Holdco relationships that are behaving.
Incredibly, a pair such as Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) / Jardine Strategic Hldgs (JS SP), recently discussed in Jardines: Holy Bargain Basements! (and showing signs of reversing today), fails to make the top 10 of "Set-up" trades in my monitor. 
Below I touch on some of the more commonly traded Holdcos and where and how the current position compares to their long-term trading pattern. 

Japan

Pasona Group Inc. manages companies that provide placement and staffing services for clients in the information technology sector.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Pasona Group (2168 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/22 -Chugai, Disco, Benefit One [& Pasona], Oisix

Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP) and Nikkiso (6376 JP).____________

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/15 - Pasona [Grata], FastRe, Demae-Can, NGK Spark

Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is Pasona (2168 JP) and health and beauty product E-commerce play Kitanotatsujin (2930 JP).

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 17th July -

Pasona (2168 JP)- Pasona was the largest capitalisation company to report on Friday. At the end of June, the company warned on impairment losses at...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 30th June - Waste Not..

WASTE NOT..- Waste treatment company Daiseki (9793 JP)'s first-quarter results saw Net Income decline by 17% on a 1% decline in sales. However,...

Campbell Gunn

StubWorld: Holdcos Behaving Badly

My second dose of StubWorld for the week is essentially an exercise in illustrating (as is evident) the truly extraordinary moves over the past...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​22 -Chugai, Disco, Benefit One [& Pasona], Oisix

Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP) and Nikkiso (6376 JP).____________

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​15 - Pasona [Grata], FastRe, Demae-Can, NGK Spark

Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is Pasona (2168 JP) and health and beauty product E-commerce play Kitanotatsujin (2930 JP).

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 17th July -

Pasona (2168 JP)- Pasona was the largest capitalisation company to report on Friday. At the end of June, the company warned on impairment losses at...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 30th June - Waste Not..

WASTE NOT..- Waste treatment company Daiseki (9793 JP)'s first-quarter results saw Net Income decline by 17% on a 1% decline in sales. However,...

Campbell Gunn

StubWorld: Holdcos Behaving Badly

My second dose of StubWorld for the week is essentially an exercise in illustrating (as is evident) the truly extraordinary moves over the past...

David Blennerhassett

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/22 -Chugai, Disco, Benefit One [& Pasona], Oisix

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/15 - Pasona [Grata], FastRe, Demae-Can, NGK Spark