Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business, Auctus Advisors

Auctus Advisors

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business

Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector. The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy. Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors. Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Over January, production was ~1,800 boe/d with short term outages due to weather at Ombu and Pepper.</li><li>This compares with production rate of 1,900-2,000 in November which included an initial high contribution at East Pepper (that has since declined, as expected).</li><li>4Q22 production of 3,727 boe/d including 1,132 boe/d at Thorsby and 2,595 boe/d at Brooks was below our expectations of 3,970 boe/d.</li></ul>

Over January, production was ~1,800 boe/d with short term outages due to weather at Ombu and Pepper.This compares with production rate of 1,900-2,000 in November which included an initial high contribution at East Pepper (that has since declined, as expected).4Q22 production of 3,727 boe/d including 1,132 boe/d at Thorsby and 2,595 boe/d at Brooks was below our expectations of 3,970 boe/d.

<ul><li>Chariot (CHAR LN)C; Target price increased from £0.55 per share: Adding a new renewable power project in Zimbabwe - Chariot continues to execute on its strategy to build a 1 GW (gross) power business.</li><li>Chariot and Total Eren have announced that the partners will work on a solar photovoltaic (PV) project that will provide competitive electricity for the Karo Platinum Project, in Zimbabwe.</li><li>This compares to a read through value of Wentworth’s non cash assets based on the share price of Wentworth on 2 December of p per share (25 p less 12.9 p).</li></ul>

Chariot (CHAR LN)C; Target price increased from £0.55 per share: Adding a new renewable power project in Zimbabwe - Chariot continues to execute on its strategy to build a 1 GW (gross) power business.Chariot and Total Eren have announced that the partners will work on a solar photovoltaic (PV) project that will provide competitive electricity for the Karo Platinum Project, in Zimbabwe.This compares to a read through value of Wentworth’s non cash assets based on the share price of Wentworth on 2 December of p per share (25 p less 12.9 p).

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>ADX Energy (ADX AU) C; Target price of A$0.070 per share: Anshof Reserves estimate well above expectations – RISC estimates that the Anshof field holds 5.2 mmboe of 2P gross reserves (4.2 mmboe net to ADX).</li><li>The 2P reserves estimate is based on an assumption of a water oil contact at 1,720 m and includes the area of the field where the sand thickens.</li><li>Calima Energy (CE1 AU) C; Target price of A$0.70 per share: 3Q22 update.</li></ul>

ADX Energy (ADX AU) C; Target price of A$0.070 per share: Anshof Reserves estimate well above expectations – RISC estimates that the Anshof field holds 5.2 mmboe of 2P gross reserves (4.2 mmboe net to ADX).The 2P reserves estimate is based on an assumption of a water oil contact at 1,720 m and includes the area of the field where the sand thickens.Calima Energy (CE1 AU) C; Target price of A$0.70 per share: 3Q22 update.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

China Petroleum & Chemical / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Int'l Compass (Jan. 27) we highlighted that the broad global indexes were breaking down, <em>but that we were watching for potential false breakdowns</em>.</li>
<li>We are now getting those false breakdowns as major levels have been reclaimed; we view this as a net positive.</li>
<li>We continue to see select areas that are attractive (namely cyclical value and defensive Sectors) and we expect markets to remain mixed.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Int'l Compass (Jan. 27) we highlighted that the broad global indexes were breaking down, but that we were watching for potential false breakdowns.
We are now getting those false breakdowns as major levels have been reclaimed; we view this as a net positive.
We continue to see select areas that are attractive (namely cyclical value and defensive Sectors) and we expect markets to remain mixed.


False Breakdowns on Global MSCI Indexes as the US Dollar Weakens; Ideas Within Energy & Financials

Global Cross-Asset Energy Analyst, VAC Investments

Aaditya Chintalapati, CFA

Global Cross-Asset Energy Analyst

VAC Investments

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/25655" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25655:1">Frontera Energy (FEC CN)</a>'s Acorazado exploration well (Llanos 25, Colombia) discovered significant oil &amp; gas pay, albeit achieving lower than expected flow rates and uncertain commerciality. A successful well was expected to help address investor concern around Frontera's resource upside and production growth potential. However, given the mixed results at the well, we believe management will now need to focus on building a robust hopper of exploration prospects for 2019, via licensing rounds and acquisitions. Crucially, with the company generating c.US$300m of FCF per year, we believe Frontera is well placed for accretive resource acquisitions in the region. We see c.50% upside to our C$27/share price target, which is based on our Base Case NAV.</p>

Frontera Energy (FEC CN)'s Acorazado exploration well (Llanos 25, Colombia) discovered significant oil &amp; gas pay, albeit achieving lower than expected flow rates and uncertain commerciality. A successful well was expected to help address investor concern around Frontera's resource upside and production growth potential. However, given the mixed results at the well, we believe management will now need to focus on building a robust hopper of exploration prospects for 2019, via licensing rounds and acquisitions. Crucially, with the company generating c.US$300m of FCF per year, we believe Frontera is well placed for accretive resource acquisitions in the region. We see c.50% upside to our C$27/share price target, which is based on our Base Case NAV.

Frontera Energy (FEC CN): Mixed Results at Acorazado Reiterate Investor Concerns

Canada

Parex Resources Inc. is an oil and gas exploration and production company. The Company owns interests in Colombia and Trinidad & Tobago.

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Parex Resources (PXT CN)

Auctus on Friday - 03/02/2023

4Q22 production of 3,727 boe/d including 1,132 boe/d at Thorsby and 2,595 boe/d at Brooks was below our expectations of 3,970 boe/d.

Auctus Advisors

Auctus on Friday - 09/12/2022

Adding a new renewable power project in Zimbabwe - Chariot continues to execute on its strategy to build a 1 GW (gross) power business.

Auctus Advisors

Auctus on Friday - 04/11/2022

The 2P reserves estimate is based on an assumption of a water oil contact at 1,720 m and includes the area of the field where the sand thickens.

Auctus Advisors

False Breakdowns on Global MSCI Indexes as the US Dollar Weakens; Ideas Within Energy & Financials

Global sovereign bond yields remain on an upward trajectory, with 10-year yields hitting multi-year highs this week in many countries; we expect...

Vermilion Research

Frontera Energy (FEC CN): Mixed Results at Acorazado Reiterate Investor Concerns

Frontera Energy (FEC CN)'s Acorazado exploration well (Llanos 25, Colombia) discovered significant oil & gas pay, albeit achieving lower than...

Aaditya Chintalapati, CFA

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