Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US have managed to break above their respective 200-day moving averages, and are now bumping up against overhead resistance.  Supportive of a bottoming global market, cyclical Sectors are emerging as leadership. We examine the technical state of major developed and EM markets and highlight in today’s report and highlight attractive and actionable stocks within the Materials, Manufacturing, and Technology sectors.

The MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US have managed to break above their respective 200-day moving averages, and are now bumping up against overhead resistance.  Supportive of a bottoming global market, cyclical Sectors are emerging as leadership. We examine the technical state of major developed and EM markets and highlight in today’s report and highlight attractive and actionable stocks within the Materials, Manufacturing, and Technology sectors.

Global Bottoming Process Continues; Remain Overweight China

Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE) are showing signs of bottoming due to positive short-term price inflections topside their respective downtrends. Additionally, cyclical Sectors Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Manufacturing exhibit early signs of price and RS bottoms throughout Europe, Japan, and EM.  In today’s report we highlight attractive and actionable opportunities within these cyclical Sectors, and provide a technical appraisal of major global indexes.

Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE) are showing signs of bottoming due to positive short-term price inflections topside their respective downtrends. Additionally, cyclical Sectors Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Manufacturing exhibit early signs of price and RS bottoms throughout Europe, Japan, and EM.  In today’s report we highlight attractive and actionable opportunities within these cyclical Sectors, and provide a technical appraisal of major global indexes.

Global Equity Strategy: Global Outlook Improving

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Improving asset turnover, earnings on an upcycle trend, and low debt levels relative to its sector</li><li>Parade is the sole supplier of embedded display ports (eDP) for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/666" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1">Apple Inc (AAPL US)</a> iPad and MacBook. Unit sales of iPads and MacBooks increased 10% YoY in the last quarter; Apple accounts for almost 50% of total sales</li><li>Revenue should be further accelerated by wider adoption of high-speed USB C interconnectors in smartphones and notebooks which are already built in Apple MacBooks and Samsung Galaxy S8</li><li>Trades above Asian Info Tech at 18CE* 4.6x PB, but offers better ROE and the company is net cash</li><li>Risks: Relying on few big customers</li></ul>* Consensus Estimates

Improving asset turnover, earnings on an upcycle trend, and low debt levels relative to its sectorParade is the sole supplier of embedded display ports (eDP) for Apple Inc (AAPL US) iPad and MacBook. Unit sales of iPads and MacBooks increased 10% YoY in the last quarter; Apple accounts for almost 50% of total salesRevenue should be further accelerated by wider adoption of high-speed USB C interconnectors in smartphones and notebooks which are already built in Apple MacBooks and Samsung Galaxy S8Trades above Asian Info Tech at 18CE* 4.6x PB, but offers better ROE and the company is net cashRisks: Relying on few big customers* Consensus Estimates

Parade (4966 TT): Apple Supplier Leading the Parade

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Notable themes:<ul><li>
Sector leadership is concentrated. The MSCI EM Index’s YTD advance, which is pushing through to all-time highs, is driven primary by tech. This sector accounts for a 26% weighting in the Index, and it is the only sector trading at 12-month relative strength highs. That’s the rear-view mirror take. What’s the technical outlook for tech? We remain overweight, keeping in mind the sector is ripe for a pause/correction (based on how far it is trading above its 200-day MA). Long-term…</li></ul>

Notable themes:
Sector leadership is concentrated. The MSCI EM Index’s YTD advance, which is pushing through to all-time highs, is driven primary by tech. This sector accounts for a 26% weighting in the Index, and it is the only sector trading at 12-month relative strength highs. That’s the rear-view mirror take. What’s the technical outlook for tech? We remain overweight, keeping in mind the sector is ripe for a pause/correction (based on how far it is trading above its 200-day MA). Long-term…

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Summary</h2><ul>
<li>Starting October 13, 2016, TSMC will be the first company to report 3Q16 results and provide 4Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Driven by iPhone 7, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/666" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1">Apple Inc (AAPL US)</a> Watch 2 production built, open market smartphones in emerging countries, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/191" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1">Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930 KS)</a> Note 7 battery problem, our 3Q16 sales report takeaways suggest y/y strengths in foundry and fabless vendors and q/q strengths in Apple's touch panel/pressure sensor and OEM/EMS vendors.  </li>
<li>
On…</li>
</ul>

Summary
Starting October 13, 2016, TSMC will be the first company to report 3Q16 results and provide 4Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Driven by iPhone 7, Apple Inc (AAPL US) Watch 2 production built, open market smartphones in emerging countries, and Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930 KS) Note 7 battery problem, our 3Q16 sales report takeaways suggest y/y strengths in foundry and fabless vendors and q/q strengths in Apple's touch panel/pressure sensor and OEM/EMS vendors.  

On…


Taiwan Semi/Tech 3Q Sales Takeaway as an Early Indicator for Global Tech Earnings

United States

Parade Technologies Ltd is a fabless semiconductor company that specialzies in high-speed video interfacing and processing products used in personal computer and consumer electronics applications, such as digital TVs, DVDs, monitors and display panels, and set-top boxes.

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Parade Technologies (4966 TT)

Global Bottoming Process Continues; Remain Overweight China

The MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US have managed to break above their respective 200-day moving averages, and are now bumping up against overhead...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Global Outlook Improving

Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE) are showing signs of bottoming due to positive short-term price inflections topside their...

Vermilion Research

Parade (4966 TT): Apple Supplier Leading the Parade

Improving asset turnover, earnings on an upcycle trend, and low debt levels relative to its sector Parade is the sole supplier of embedded display...

A. Stotz Investment Research

EM Leadership Screen & Chart Book

Notable themes: Sector leadership is concentrated. The MSCI EM Index’s YTD advance, which is pushing through to all-time highs, is driven primary...

Vermilion Research

Taiwan Semi/Tech 3Q Sales Takeaway as an Early Indicator for Global Tech Earnings

Summary Starting October 13, 2016, TSMC will be the first company to report 3Q16 results and provide 4Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings...

Andrew Lu

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