Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business, Auctus Advisors

Auctus Advisors

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business

Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector. The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy. Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors. Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The FY23 production of 8,471 bbl/d was in line with previous indications.</li>
<li>YE23 cash, gross debt and cash advances had been previously reported.</li>
<li>The FY24 production guidance is now 11-13 mbbl/d (11-14 mbbl/d previously) as Panoro has incorporated a pause in drilling offshore EG. The main factor driving the adjusted upper limit of guidance range is the timing to secure a new rig in EG and deferral of some associated production.</li>
</ul>


The FY23 production of 8,471 bbl/d was in line with previous indications.
YE23 cash, gross debt and cash advances had been previously reported.
The FY24 production guidance is now 11-13 mbbl/d (11-14 mbbl/d previously) as Panoro has incorporated a pause in drilling offshore EG. The main factor driving the adjusted upper limit of guidance range is the timing to secure a new rig in EG and deferral of some associated production.


Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Hibiscus South discovery potentially 50-100% larger than expected

<ul>
<li>The rig contract in EG has been terminated by Trident Energy (the operator) on safety concerns with the Blow Out Preventers not working properly.</li>
<li>We understand that there are suitable rig(s) available that are being considered as potential alternatives.</li>
<li>The three well drilling campaign (followed by the drilling of the high impact Akeng Deep prospect) could restart during 2Q24 (subject to an alternative rig being secured).</li>
</ul>


The rig contract in EG has been terminated by Trident Energy (the operator) on safety concerns with the Blow Out Preventers not working properly.
We understand that there are suitable rig(s) available that are being considered as potential alternatives.
The three well drilling campaign (followed by the drilling of the high impact Akeng Deep prospect) could restart during 2Q24 (subject to an alternative rig being secured).


Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Rig contract terminated in EG: Inconsequential blip

<ul>
<li>FY23 production was ~8.5 mbbl/d, implying ~9.5-9.7 mbbl/d in 4Q23. </li>
<li>The electrical issue at the ESPs on Dussafu has not been fully resolved and continues to negatively impact gross production.</li>
<li>Valuation We are now forecasting US$85.5/bbl for Brent in 2024 (US$90/bbl previously) and we have paired back our FY24 production forecast from ~13.4 mbbl/d to 12.7 mbbl/d.</li>
</ul>


FY23 production was ~8.5 mbbl/d, implying ~9.5-9.7 mbbl/d in 4Q23. 
The electrical issue at the ESPs on Dussafu has not been fully resolved and continues to negatively impact gross production.
Valuation We are now forecasting US$85.5/bbl for Brent in 2024 (US$90/bbl previously) and we have paired back our FY24 production forecast from ~13.4 mbbl/d to 12.7 mbbl/d.


Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): ~45% production growth in 2024

<ul><li>• 3Q23 production of ~10 mbbl/d was slightly ahead of our expectations given a strong performance in Tunisia (2.3 mbbl/d vs our expectations of 2.1 mbbl/d).</li><li>It has therefore been decided to pull out the completions at these two wells to address the ESPs issues. • 4Q23 gross production at Dussafu is expected to average 25-30 mbbl/d.</li></ul>

• 3Q23 production of ~10 mbbl/d was slightly ahead of our expectations given a strong performance in Tunisia (2.3 mbbl/d vs our expectations of 2.1 mbbl/d).It has therefore been decided to pull out the completions at these two wells to address the ESPs issues. • 4Q23 gross production at Dussafu is expected to average 25-30 mbbl/d.

Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Production affected by short term ESPs issues. Adding reserves and exploration upside

<ul>
<li>3Q23 production of ~10 mbbl/d and net cash at the end of September had been previously reported.</li>
<li>Production plateau of 40 mbbl/d was reiterated and could be reached by the end of 1Q24 in our estimation.</li>
<li>Shareholder distributions Panoro has declared a cash distribution of NOK40 mm for 3Q23 for a total payout of NOK140 mm since the 2023 shareholder returns policy was announced.</li>
</ul>


3Q23 production of ~10 mbbl/d and net cash at the end of September had been previously reported.
Production plateau of 40 mbbl/d was reiterated and could be reached by the end of 1Q24 in our estimation.
Shareholder distributions Panoro has declared a cash distribution of NOK40 mm for 3Q23 for a total payout of NOK140 mm since the 2023 shareholder returns policy was announced.


Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): 2024 shareholder distributions could represent a total yield of 12.5%-15.5%

Norway

Panoro Energy ASA explores for oil and natural gas in Brazil, Gabon, and Nigeria . The Company operates offshore in the Camamu-Almada and Santos basins.

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Panoro Energy ASA (PEN NO)

Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Hibiscus South discovery potentially 50-100% larger than expected

The FY23 production of 8,471 bbl/d was in line with previous indications. YE23 cash, gross debt and cash advances had been previously reported.

Auctus Advisors

Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Rig contract terminated in EG: Inconsequential blip

The rig contract in EG has been terminated by Trident Energy (the operator) on safety concerns with the Blow Out Preventers not working properly.

Auctus Advisors

Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): ~45% production growth in 2024

FY23 production was ~8.5 mbbl/d, implying ~9.5-9.7 mbbl/d in 4Q23. The electrical issue at the ESPs on Dussafu has not been fully resolved and...

Auctus Advisors

Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Production affected by short term ESPs issues. Adding reserves and exploration upside

• 3Q23 production of ~10 mbbl/d was slightly ahead of our expectations given a strong performance in Tunisia (2.3 mbbl/d vs our expectations of...

Auctus Advisors

Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): 2024 shareholder distributions could represent a total yield of 12.5%-15.5%

3Q23 production of ~10 mbbl/d and net cash at the end of September had been previously reported. Production plateau of 40 mbbl/d was reiterated and...

Auctus Advisors

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