'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/122/342/original/2020-03-11_11-02-32.png?1583892183" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="122342"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/122/590/original/2020-03-12_07-42-03.png?1583966536" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="122590"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>CUMULATIVE CASH FLOWS - In this third and final of our series on Japanese companies that might be compromised as the Covid-19 recession unfolds,  we shall look at Cumulative Cash Flows. Our cash flow model is derived from the disclosed Balance Sheets and Statements of Comprehensive Income and balances to zero for every company for every comparable period. Variations in disclosure between the audited annual yuho and unaudited quarterly kessan tanshin reports, notably when the company is reporting under the weaker IFRS standard can result in unavoidable quarter-to-quarter variations. Consequently, our analysis will focus on year-on-year changes as of the most recent quarterly disclosure irrespective of fiscal year-end.  Our review will cover six principal cash flow metrics:-<ul>
<li>
Operating Cash Flow - Operating Cash Flow comprises all cash flow items relating to transactions with customers and suppliers except inventory cash flows.</li>
<li>
Investing Cash Flow - Investing Cash Flow comprises cash flow to or from Fixed Assets and Inventories. Unlike GAAP Cash Flows Statements, It does not include investments in financial assets.</li>
<li>
Inventory Cash Flow - A sub-set of Investing Cash Flow, inventory Cash Flow is the change in Inventory on the Balance Sheet. </li>
<li>
Free Cash Flow - Free Cash Flow the sum of Operating Cash Flow, Fixed Asset Cash Flow and Inventory Cash Flow.</li>
<li>
Financing Cash Flow - Financing Cash Flow comprises Debt &amp; Lease Liabilities, Investments and the taxation that is allocated to Financing Cash Flow. Debt &amp; Lease Liabilities includes changes in Short and Long-Term Debt and Lease Liabilities and Interest and Bond Issuance Expenses.' Investments' includes Interest &amp; Dividend Income, Purchases and Sales of Securities, Loans, Gains and Losses on Marketable Securities and Equity Earnings.</li>
<li>Change in Cash - Change in Cash is the sum of Free Cash Flow, Financing Cash Flow and Shareholder Cash Flow after including Minorities &amp; Adjustments. </li>
</ul>EXCLUDED - Four companies have been excluded from our review as they have substantial financial subsidiaries - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a> which distort their balance sheets. We have also excluded companies with a current market cap below ¥50b, although some exceptions have been made for abnormally large movements, such as those in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-display-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8280:1" rel="noopener">Japan Display (6740 JP).</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba (6502 JP)</a>-  As an example of our analysis, Toshiba has seen the largest reduction in Cash as a percentage of market value over the last twelve months of any large-cap Japanese company. Toshiba's cash balance has declined by ¥1.4 trillion since peaking in 2019-Q2 - 114% of the current market cap. 70% of the cash generated between 2018-Q4 and 2019-Q2 has been allocated to share repurchases, dividends and cash reduction. The company's net cash remains at a healthy 51% of market value and 43% of Shareholders' Equity; however, Cumulative Operating Cash Flow will fall below zero in the current quarter. There are few additional reductions in Fixed Assets and Inventories that can be sustained without irreparable damage. The logic of buying back shares in an entity that has negative residual returns is not clear to us. Despite the potential for a TOPIX re-inclusion 'bounce', fundamentally the stock should be avoided.<div class="content-highlight">In the DETAIL Section below, we shall look at the top (or bottom) thirty large-cap companies on each of the metric above scaled by market capitalisation. </div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsCUMULATIVE CASH FLOWS - In this third and final of our series on Japanese companies that might be compromised as the Covid-19 recession unfolds,  we shall look at Cumulative Cash Flows. Our cash flow model is derived from the disclosed Balance Sheets and Statements of Comprehensive Income and balances to zero for every company for every comparable period. Variations in disclosure between the audited annual yuho and unaudited quarterly kessan tanshin reports, notably when the company is reporting under the weaker IFRS standard can result in unavoidable quarter-to-quarter variations. Consequently, our analysis will focus on year-on-year changes as of the most recent quarterly disclosure irrespective of fiscal year-end.  Our review will cover six principal cash flow metrics:-

Operating Cash Flow - Operating Cash Flow comprises all cash flow items relating to transactions with customers and suppliers except inventory cash flows.

Investing Cash Flow - Investing Cash Flow comprises cash flow to or from Fixed Assets and Inventories. Unlike GAAP Cash Flows Statements, It does not include investments in financial assets.

Inventory Cash Flow - A sub-set of Investing Cash Flow, inventory Cash Flow is the change in Inventory on the Balance Sheet. 

Free Cash Flow - Free Cash Flow the sum of Operating Cash Flow, Fixed Asset Cash Flow and Inventory Cash Flow.

Financing Cash Flow - Financing Cash Flow comprises Debt &amp; Lease Liabilities, Investments and the taxation that is allocated to Financing Cash Flow. Debt &amp; Lease Liabilities includes changes in Short and Long-Term Debt and Lease Liabilities and Interest and Bond Issuance Expenses.' Investments' includes Interest &amp; Dividend Income, Purchases and Sales of Securities, Loans, Gains and Losses on Marketable Securities and Equity Earnings.
Change in Cash - Change in Cash is the sum of Free Cash Flow, Financing Cash Flow and Shareholder Cash Flow after including Minorities &amp; Adjustments. 
EXCLUDED - Four companies have been excluded from our review as they have substantial financial subsidiaries - Z Holdings (4689 JP), Rakuten (4755 JP), Sony (6758 JP), Japan Post (6178 JP) which distort their balance sheets. We have also excluded companies with a current market cap below ¥50b, although some exceptions have been made for abnormally large movements, such as those in Japan Display (6740 JP).Toshiba (6502 JP)-  As an example of our analysis, Toshiba has seen the largest reduction in Cash as a percentage of market value over the last twelve months of any large-cap Japanese company. Toshiba's cash balance has declined by ¥1.4 trillion since peaking in 2019-Q2 - 114% of the current market cap. 70% of the cash generated between 2018-Q4 and 2019-Q2 has been allocated to share repurchases, dividends and cash reduction. The company's net cash remains at a healthy 51% of market value and 43% of Shareholders' Equity; however, Cumulative Operating Cash Flow will fall below zero in the current quarter. There are few additional reductions in Fixed Assets and Inventories that can be sustained without irreparable damage. The logic of buying back shares in an entity that has negative residual returns is not clear to us. Despite the potential for a TOPIX re-inclusion 'bounce', fundamentally the stock should be avoided.In the DETAIL Section below, we shall look at the top (or bottom) thirty large-cap companies on each of the metric above scaled by market capitalisation. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Who’s Swimming Naked? > Part 3: Cumulative Cash Flow

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Aqila Ali

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

On the 26th of February, it was reported that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/panasonic-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:222:1" rel="noopener">Panasonic Corp (6752 JP)</a> will end their joint solar cell production. Although the two companies will still operate their EV battery Gigafactory jointly, the two are increasingly parting ways. The news has it that Panasonic’s production of solar cells did not meet Tesla’s expected standards (mainly on price).<ul>
<li>We expected Panasonic to reduce its reliance on Tesla - the news only confirms our thoughts, and we view this as positive for Panasonic. For Panasonic, the solar business seems to not have yielded the results expected. Thus, the decision to end production (especially with Tesla) makes sense.</li>
<li>Tesla, on the other hand, expects its solar energy business to do well, given the price competitiveness (on its Powerwall product) from sourcing from Chinese suppliers alongside economies of scale benefits. However, even if demand conditions are good, it seems questionable as to whether Tesla’s production would come in time to meet the demand (now that the JV is no more as well).</li>
<li>On a side note, Tesla recently partnered with CATL for prismatic batteries while Panasonic is developing cylindrical batteries for Toyota’s BEVs. Given the limited use of prismatic batteries in BEVs, we do not really think such moves by Tesla should pressure Panasonic or be seen as a downside for the latter.</li>
</ul>

On the 26th of February, it was reported that Tesla Motors (TSLA US) and Panasonic Corp (6752 JP) will end their joint solar cell production. Although the two companies will still operate their EV battery Gigafactory jointly, the two are increasingly parting ways. The news has it that Panasonic’s production of solar cells did not meet Tesla’s expected standards (mainly on price).
We expected Panasonic to reduce its reliance on Tesla - the news only confirms our thoughts, and we view this as positive for Panasonic. For Panasonic, the solar business seems to not have yielded the results expected. Thus, the decision to end production (especially with Tesla) makes sense.
Tesla, on the other hand, expects its solar energy business to do well, given the price competitiveness (on its Powerwall product) from sourcing from Chinese suppliers alongside economies of scale benefits. However, even if demand conditions are good, it seems questionable as to whether Tesla’s production would come in time to meet the demand (now that the JV is no more as well).
On a side note, Tesla recently partnered with CATL for prismatic batteries while Panasonic is developing cylindrical batteries for Toyota’s BEVs. Given the limited use of prismatic batteries in BEVs, we do not really think such moves by Tesla should pressure Panasonic or be seen as a downside for the latter.


The Panasonic & Tesla Split Continues: The Two End Their Joint Solar Cell Production

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Highlights since our last monthly- ‘<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ev-battery-monthly-no-further-cut-in-subsidies-for-nevs-in-china-suggests-better-market-conditions" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:35947" rel="noopener">EV Battery Monthly: No Further Cut in Subsidies for NEVs in China Suggests Better Market Conditions</a>’ are as follows:<ul>
<li>In the last monthly, we stated that no further cut in NEV subsidy in China would suggest better market conditions for battery players there. However, the recent coronavirus outbreak and the production stoppage signal possible supply chain disruption risk for the battery players, although their key plants are currently located away from the affected province.</li>
<li>
<a target="_blank"></a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/panasonic-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:222:1" rel="noopener">Panasonic Corp (6752 JP)</a>:</li>
</ul><ul><li><ul>
<li>3Q results point to recovery.</li>
<li>Gigafactory with Tesla made profits during the quarter. However, stabilisation of profits depends on Tesla’s ability to meet production targets.</li>
<li>The company continues moving towards <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> regardless of the Gigafactory making profits.</li>
</ul></li></ul><ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-techn-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">CATL (A) (300750 CH)</a> confirms tie-up with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a>. While the move might benefit Tesla, we think otherwise for CATL, as mentioned in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/catl-could-be-tesla-s-new-battery-supplier-panasonic-in-trouble" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:28757" rel="noopener">CATL Could Be Tesla’s New Battery Supplier- Panasonic in Trouble?</a>. We feel that Panasonic is not losing much by not joining Tesla in China, given its tie-up with Toyota to serve the Chinese market.</li>
<li>Tesla has reportedly started the process for building its own battery plant. While this might be true, we think that the success rate of this move and the time period for such an achievement are still questionable.</li>
<li>South Korean players seemed rather quiet, except that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS)</a> has also partnered with Tesla, taking on some risk, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-sdi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:503:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Sdi (006400 KS)</a> is bent on building its upstream by securing supplies, possibly to serve the deals it has already signed up for.</li>
<li>CATL’s share price continued to rise, followed by the Korean players, both outperforming the market. Panasonic’s share price regained following the 3Q earnings release and news on its Gigafactory reporting profits. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> continued to see relatively weak performance.</li>
</ul><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/713/original/image_48627219121582076013131.png?1582076014" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118713"></figure><div class="content-remarks"> Source: CapIQ</div>

Highlights since our last monthly- ‘EV Battery Monthly: No Further Cut in Subsidies for NEVs in China Suggests Better Market Conditions’ are as follows:
In the last monthly, we stated that no further cut in NEV subsidy in China would suggest better market conditions for battery players there. However, the recent coronavirus outbreak and the production stoppage signal possible supply chain disruption risk for the battery players, although their key plants are currently located away from the affected province.

Panasonic Corp (6752 JP):

3Q results point to recovery.
Gigafactory with Tesla made profits during the quarter. However, stabilisation of profits depends on Tesla’s ability to meet production targets.
The company continues moving towards Toyota Motor (7203 JP) regardless of the Gigafactory making profits.


CATL (A) (300750 CH) confirms tie-up with Tesla Motors (TSLA US). While the move might benefit Tesla, we think otherwise for CATL, as mentioned in CATL Could Be Tesla’s New Battery Supplier- Panasonic in Trouble?. We feel that Panasonic is not losing much by not joining Tesla in China, given its tie-up with Toyota to serve the Chinese market.
Tesla has reportedly started the process for building its own battery plant. While this might be true, we think that the success rate of this move and the time period for such an achievement are still questionable.
South Korean players seemed rather quiet, except that LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS) has also partnered with Tesla, taking on some risk, while Samsung Sdi (006400 KS) is bent on building its upstream by securing supplies, possibly to serve the deals it has already signed up for.
CATL’s share price continued to rise, followed by the Korean players, both outperforming the market. Panasonic’s share price regained following the 3Q earnings release and news on its Gigafactory reporting profits. BYD (1211 HK) continued to see relatively weak performance.
 Source: CapIQ

EV Batteries Monthly: COVID 19 Risks; Panasonic-Tesla Gigafactory Profits & CATL Partners with Tesla

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

As a follow up to our note <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/evidence-of-global-slowdown-accumulates-as-stores-remain-closed-and-supply-chains-are-crippled" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Evidence of Global Slowdown Accumulates as Stores Remain Closed and Supply Chains Are Crippled</a>, reports that business impacts have increased are starting to take a more regional or even global flavor.Despite some factories in China resuming operation on 10th February, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/10/some-factories-in-china-extend-shutdowns-amid-coronavirus-outbreak.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">several regions have extended shutdowns</a> and labor supply remains restricted due to quarantines. This has caused many factories to delay resuming operations with the few facilities that have resumed operations remaining severely under capacity. We are now seeing a follow-on impact with reports of non-China based factories reporting production halts.

As a follow up to our note Evidence of Global Slowdown Accumulates as Stores Remain Closed and Supply Chains Are Crippled, reports that business impacts have increased are starting to take a more regional or even global flavor.Despite some factories in China resuming operation on 10th February, several regions have extended shutdowns and labor supply remains restricted due to quarantines. This has caused many factories to delay resuming operations with the few facilities that have resumed operations remaining severely under capacity. We are now seeing a follow-on impact with reports of non-China based factories reporting production halts.

Factories Outside of China Now Halting Production as Virus Impact Expands

3Q Earnings were quite strong for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/panasonic-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:222:1" rel="noopener">Panasonic Corp (6752 JP)</a>. Although revenue declined and failed to meet consensus (-3.2%) and our estimates (-0.9%), OP improved YoY (+3.0%) significantly outperforming consensus and our expectations. Consensus and our expectations were for a decline in OP during the period. Despite the improvement in OP, Panasonic kept its earnings guidance unchanged.
<ul>
<li>The key concern with the 3Q earnings seems to be the Industrial Solutions segment which continues to struggle due to China’s slowdown.</li>
<li>The consumption tax hike in Japan affected the Appliance segment sales, but profits from the segment were up.</li>
<li>Continuing losses in the automotive segment does not seem to be a major concern to us now. Having covered Panasonic’s battery business quite closely in our EV battery monthlies, we are quite convinced that Panasonic is taking strategic steps to revitalise its battery business. Moreover, its new JV with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> for Prismatic batteries (announced following the earnings release) should only add to the segment’s recovery.</li>
</ul>
Our thoughts:
<ul>
<li>Earnings for FY03/20E are still trending along our worst-case scenario estimates.</li>
<li>However, we expect earnings to recover over the medium term and still believe that the long-term growth prospects look attractive.</li>
<li>The Life Solutions and Automotive segments are likely to be key growth drivers supported by Toyota’s involvement in both segments.</li>
<li>The increase in profits in 3Q (despite the loss-making Automotive business and struggling Industrial Solutions segments) is a good sign indicating that a recovery in profitability is around the corner for Panasonic.</li>
<li>Trading at 12x PE based on FY03/20E earnings (weak earnings), Panasonic still looks reasonable to us.</li>
<li>The share price has moved up 28% since our 1Q analysis note on the company. We believe that further upside is possible as earnings improve but the latter does not seem likely over the short term. That said, we also note that the share price may be vulnerable to declines until risks from China’s uncertain business environment and volatility surrounding Tesla’s reliance on subsides. Thus, we wouldn’t be adding to any positions in Panasonic as of now. However, we consider the worst to be behind the stock and would look to be adding on weakness.</li>
</ul>

3Q Earnings were quite strong for Panasonic Corp (6752 JP). Although revenue declined and failed to meet consensus (-3.2%) and our estimates (-0.9%), OP improved YoY (+3.0%) significantly outperforming consensus and our expectations. Consensus and our expectations were for a decline in OP during the period. Despite the improvement in OP, Panasonic kept its earnings guidance unchanged.

The key concern with the 3Q earnings seems to be the Industrial Solutions segment which continues to struggle due to China’s slowdown.
The consumption tax hike in Japan affected the Appliance segment sales, but profits from the segment were up.
Continuing losses in the automotive segment does not seem to be a major concern to us now. Having covered Panasonic’s battery business quite closely in our EV battery monthlies, we are quite convinced that Panasonic is taking strategic steps to revitalise its battery business. Moreover, its new JV with Toyota Motor (7203 JP) for Prismatic batteries (announced following the earnings release) should only add to the segment’s recovery.

Our thoughts:

Earnings for FY03/20E are still trending along our worst-case scenario estimates.
However, we expect earnings to recover over the medium term and still believe that the long-term growth prospects look attractive.
The Life Solutions and Automotive segments are likely to be key growth drivers supported by Toyota’s involvement in both segments.
The increase in profits in 3Q (despite the loss-making Automotive business and struggling Industrial Solutions segments) is a good sign indicating that a recovery in profitability is around the corner for Panasonic.
Trading at 12x PE based on FY03/20E earnings (weak earnings), Panasonic still looks reasonable to us.
The share price has moved up 28% since our 1Q analysis note on the company. We believe that further upside is possible as earnings improve but the latter does not seem likely over the short term. That said, we also note that the share price may be vulnerable to declines until risks from China’s uncertain business environment and volatility surrounding Tesla’s reliance on subsides. Thus, we wouldn’t be adding to any positions in Panasonic as of now. However, we consider the worst to be behind the stock and would look to be adding on weakness.


3Q Points to Recovery: Increase in OP and A New Prismatic Battery JV with Toyota

Japan

Panasonic Corporation manufactures electric and electronic products. The Company produces home appliances, car navigation systems, digital devices, computer peripherals, telecommunications, industrial equipment, and electronic parts. Panasonic has associated companies around the world.

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Panasonic Corp (6752 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Who’s Swimming Naked? > Part 3: Cumulative Cash Flow

CUMULATIVE CASH FLOWS - In this third and final of our series on Japanese companies that might be compromised as the Covid-19 recession unfolds, ...

Campbell Gunn

The Panasonic & Tesla Split Continues: The Two End Their Joint Solar Cell Production

On the 26th of February, it was reported that Tesla Motors (TSLA US) and Panasonic Corp (6752 JP) will end their joint solar cell production....

Aqila Ali

EV Batteries Monthly: COVID 19 Risks; Panasonic-Tesla Gigafactory Profits & CATL Partners with Tesla

Highlights since our last monthly- ‘EV Battery Monthly: No Further Cut in Subsidies for NEVs in China Suggests Better Market Conditions’ are as...

Aqila Ali

Factories Outside of China Now Halting Production as Virus Impact Expands

As a follow up to our note Evidence of Global Slowdown Accumulates as Stores Remain Closed and Supply Chains Are Crippled, reports that business...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

3Q Points to Recovery: Increase in OP and A New Prismatic Battery JV with Toyota

3Q Earnings were quite strong for Panasonic Corp (6752 JP). Although revenue declined and failed to meet consensus (-3.2%) and our estimates...

Aqila Ali

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