'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

MARKET COMPOSITE
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/380/original/2019-01-13_13-31-55.png?1547353946" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75380"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
NEW YEAR RALLY - From the December 25th's lows of 8% by number and 11% by value, the percentages of Japanese stocks above the weighted sum of moving averages have recovered to 14% by number and 20% by value - just on the 'buying zone' line. As we <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-2018-market-review-bear-market-rally-ahead" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:26917">expected</a>, the Total Market Value has rallied 8.7% and looks to have some further to run, especially if the Yen reverses some of its recent strength. The Bank of Japan provided a 'helping hand' on both 4th and 10th January, the only days this year so far on which the market declined. 
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SECTORS
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/383/original/2019-01-13_15-22-47.png?1547360595" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75383"></figure>
<div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">LEGEND: The 'sparklines' show the three-year trend in the weighted percentage above moving average relative to the Market Composite and the 'STDev' column is a measure of the variability of that relative measure. The table also provides averages for the breaks above and breaks below and the positive and negative crossovers.</div>
SECTOR BREAKDOWN - The top six sectors measured by the percentage above the weighted average of 5-240 Days remain, predictably, domestic and defensive - REITs, Information Technology, Media and Utilities continue from our previous review with Healthcare and Transportation replacing Food, Beverages and Tobacco and Internet Content &amp; Services. Equally predictable is the bottom half-dozen. Banks, Autos, Metals, Electrical Equipment, and Chemicals remain from 23rd December Moving Average Outliers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-moving-average-outliers-year-end-blues" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:26895">Insight</a>, with Building Materials replacing Non-Bank Finance. Over the last trading five days, however, there has been a noticeable reversal with Autos, Electrical Equipment, and Machinery all over '55' while Other Consumer Products, Restaurants, Telecommunications and Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco are all below '40'.
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COMPANIES
COMPANY MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - As with the market and sectors, our moving average outlier indicator uses a weighted sum of the share price relative to its 5-day, 20-day, 60-day, 120 day and 240-day moving averages. Extreme values are weighted sums greater than 100% and less than -100%. We would caution that this indicator is best used for timing shorter-term reversals and, in many cases, higher highs and lower lows will be seen. 
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/075/382/original/2019-01-13_15-19-43.png?1547360415" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="75382"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
THE +/-100% CLUB - The number of extreme negative outliers reached a peak for 1,352 on December 25th and has since returned to 'normal' levels. We suggested in the previous Insight in this series that such an extreme number of extremes was a signal of a short-term bottom, which, so far, has proved to be correct.
<div class="content-highlight">
In the DETAIL section below, we highlight the current top and bottom twenty-five larger capitalisation outliers as well as those companies that have seen the most significant positive and negative changes in their outlier percentage in the last two weeks and provide short comments on companies of particular note. 
</div>

MARKET COMPOSITE

Source: Japan Analytics
NEW YEAR RALLY - From the December 25th's lows of 8% by number and 11% by value, the percentages of Japanese stocks above the weighted sum of moving averages have recovered to 14% by number and 20% by value - just on the 'buying zone' line. As we expected, the Total Market Value has rallied 8.7% and looks to have some further to run, especially if the Yen reverses some of its recent strength. The Bank of Japan provided a 'helping hand' on both 4th and 10th January, the only days this year so far on which the market declined. 

SECTORS

LEGEND: The 'sparklines' show the three-year trend in the weighted percentage above moving average relative to the Market Composite and the 'STDev' column is a measure of the variability of that relative measure. The table also provides averages for the breaks above and breaks below and the positive and negative crossovers.
SECTOR BREAKDOWN - The top six sectors measured by the percentage above the weighted average of 5-240 Days remain, predictably, domestic and defensive - REITs, Information Technology, Media and Utilities continue from our previous review with Healthcare and Transportation replacing Food, Beverages and Tobacco and Internet Content &amp; Services. Equally predictable is the bottom half-dozen. Banks, Autos, Metals, Electrical Equipment, and Chemicals remain from 23rd December Moving Average Outliers Insight, with Building Materials replacing Non-Bank Finance. Over the last trading five days, however, there has been a noticeable reversal with Autos, Electrical Equipment, and Machinery all over '55' while Other Consumer Products, Restaurants, Telecommunications and Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco are all below '40'.

COMPANIES
COMPANY MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - As with the market and sectors, our moving average outlier indicator uses a weighted sum of the share price relative to its 5-day, 20-day, 60-day, 120 day and 240-day moving averages. Extreme values are weighted sums greater than 100% and less than -100%. We would caution that this indicator is best used for timing shorter-term reversals and, in many cases, higher highs and lower lows will be seen. 

Source: Japan Analytics
THE +/-100% CLUB - The number of extreme negative outliers reached a peak for 1,352 on December 25th and has since returned to 'normal' levels. We suggested in the previous Insight in this series that such an extreme number of extremes was a signal of a short-term bottom, which, so far, has proved to be correct.

In the DETAIL section below, we highlight the current top and bottom twenty-five larger capitalisation outliers as well as those companies that have seen the most significant positive and negative changes in their outlier percentage in the last two weeks and provide short comments on companies of particular note. 


Japan: Moving Average Outliers - New Year Rally

IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker, Global Equity Research Ltd

Rickin Thakrar

IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Happy New Year! Below is a recap of the key event-driven research produced by the Global Equity Research team. This week we dig into the potential low-ball bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6296" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6296:1" rel="noopener">Healius (HLS AU)</a> , we update our view on the messy deal between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/320" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:320:1" rel="noopener">Familymart Uny Holdings (8028 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13475" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13475:1" rel="noopener">Don Quijote Holdings (7532 JP)</a> as the deal shifts to earnings dislocation. In addition, we question the economics of a material bump for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/726" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:726:1" rel="noopener">Healthscope Ltd (HSO AU)</a>, assess the reduced bid (and great call by Arun) on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/374" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:374:1" rel="noopener">MYOB Group Ltd (MYO AU)</a> and finally dig into the potentially risky acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7797" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7797:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP)</a> of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22568" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22568:1" rel="noopener">ABB Ltd (ABBN VX)</a>'s power grids. 
The rest of our event-driven research can be found below
Best of luck for the new week - Rickin, Venkat and Arun

Happy New Year! Below is a recap of the key event-driven research produced by the Global Equity Research team. This week we dig into the potential low-ball bid for Healius (HLS AU) , we update our view on the messy deal between Familymart Uny Holdings (8028 JP) and Don Quijote Holdings (7532 JP) as the deal shifts to earnings dislocation. In addition, we question the economics of a material bump for Healthscope Ltd (HSO AU), assess the reduced bid (and great call by Arun) on MYOB Group Ltd (MYO AU) and finally dig into the potentially risky acquisition by Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP) of ABB Ltd (ABBN VX)'s power grids. 
The rest of our event-driven research can be found below
Best of luck for the new week - Rickin, Venkat and Arun

The GER Weekly EVENTS Wrap: Healius, FamilyMart, Healthscope, Myob and Hitachi

We think the failed tender but continued asset sale between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/320" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:320:1">Familymart Uny (8028 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13475" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13475:1">Don Quijote (7532 JP)</a>  is astutely beneficial for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/320" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:320:1">Familymart Uny Holdings (8028 JP) </a>and parent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18448" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a> . More details below

We think the failed tender but continued asset sale between Familymart Uny (8028 JP) and Don Quijote (7532 JP)  is astutely beneficial for Familymart Uny Holdings (8028 JP) and parent Itochu Corp (8001 JP) . More details below 

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Pan Pacific International Holdings / Event-Driven

In October, the Nikkei leaked and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/320" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:320:1">Familymart Uny Holdings (8028 JP)</a> immediately thereafter <a href="http://www.fu-hd.com/english/ir/release/20181011e_release.pdf" target="_blank">announced</a> that Familymart would sell the rest of its GMS (and financing) subsidiary UNY to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13475" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13475:1">Don Quijote Holdings (7532 JP)</a> (which bought 40% of the company in 2017) and would conduct a Tender Offer later in 2018 at a 20% premium to the then-current price to buy a stake in Don Quijote of just over 20%. The Tender Offer was <a href="http://www.fu-hd.com/english/ir/release/ufhd_hp20181106en.pdf" target="_blank">announced</a> November 6th. Familymart had arranged to borrow shares it did not manage to buy in the tender so that at the next record date it will have 20% of the voting rights by hook or by crook. Don Quijote shares jumped to the Tender Offer price the same day and then spent a day there before investors decided that the news and structure of the deal was better news for Don Quijote than Familymart had priced in. Results of the Tender Offer have just been <a href="http://www.fu-hd.com/english/ir/release/fuhd_irrelease20181220_en.pdf" target="_blank">announced</a>. Familymart had been trying to buy 32,108,700 shares for JPY 212 billion. They just missed. They got 0.08% of the total desired, or 24,721 shares for just over JPY 163 million.THEY GOT NOTHING.I expect Familymart had zero idea this would happen. I expect their bankers are surprised as well. They should not have been. They analysed this badly. There was a decent chance they would find it difficult to dislodge shares from owners. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/familymart-tender-for-don-quijote-elmer-vs-mr-partridge" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:25806">FamilyMart Tender for Don Quijote - Elmer vs Mr. Partridge?</a> I recalled how "Old Turkey" (from Edwin Lefevre's Reminiscences of a Stock Operator) did not want to lose his position while Elmer was eager to take profits."I couldn’t think of selling that stock.” “You couldn’t?” asked Elmer, beginning to look doubtful himself. It is a habit with most tip givers to be tip takers. “Why not?” And Elmer drew nearer. “Why, this is a bull market!” The old fellow said it as though he had given a long and detailed explanation. Growth stock managers don't like selling growth stocks until the growth stops growing. Don Quijote is still growing. And with UNY, Don Quijote may grow faster than previously expected. The announcement at the end of the Tender Offer Results <a href="http://www.fu-hd.com/english/ir/release/fuhd_irrelease20181220_en.pdf" target="_blank">announcement</a> is also VERY telling. There was a plan to make Don Quijote an equity-method affiliate by buying in the Tender Offer, buying in the market, or borrowing lots of shares. There was a plan for Familymart to appoint directors to DQ.There was a clearly-available trading strategy based on that. The new announcement puts that strategy into question. And Mr. Partridge might not be so inclined to call it a bull market. Since the launch of the deal, the markets have started the trip to Gehenna in a trug. From the one-month average prior to the Familymart bid news, Don Quijote is up 25%. Familymart is up 40%, the Nikkei 225 is down 10.7%, the TOPIX retail sector is down 5.5% but Familymart and Don Quijote have influenced that performance (without those two names, average performance is worse).

In October, the Nikkei leaked and Familymart Uny Holdings (8028 JP) immediately thereafter announced that Familymart would sell the rest of its GMS (and financing) subsidiary UNY to Don Quijote Holdings (7532 JP) (which bought 40% of the company in 2017) and would conduct a Tender Offer later in 2018 at a 20% premium to the then-current price to buy a stake in Don Quijote of just over 20%. The Tender Offer was announced November 6th. Familymart had arranged to borrow shares it did not manage to buy in the tender so that at the next record date it will have 20% of the voting rights by hook or by crook. Don Quijote shares jumped to the Tender Offer price the same day and then spent a day there before investors decided that the news and structure of the deal was better news for Don Quijote than Familymart had priced in. Results of the Tender Offer have just been announced. Familymart had been trying to buy 32,108,700 shares for JPY 212 billion. They just missed. They got 0.08% of the total desired, or 24,721 shares for just over JPY 163 million.THEY GOT NOTHING.I expect Familymart had zero idea this would happen. I expect their bankers are surprised as well. They should not have been. They analysed this badly. There was a decent chance they would find it difficult to dislodge shares from owners. In FamilyMart Tender for Don Quijote - Elmer vs Mr. Partridge? I recalled how "Old Turkey" (from Edwin Lefevre's Reminiscences of a Stock Operator) did not want to lose his position while Elmer was eager to take profits."I couldn’t think of selling that stock.” “You couldn’t?” asked Elmer, beginning to look doubtful himself. It is a habit with most tip givers to be tip takers. “Why not?” And Elmer drew nearer. “Why, this is a bull market!” The old fellow said it as though he had given a long and detailed explanation. Growth stock managers don't like selling growth stocks until the growth stops growing. Don Quijote is still growing. And with UNY, Don Quijote may grow faster than previously expected. The announcement at the end of the Tender Offer Results announcement is also VERY telling. There was a plan to make Don Quijote an equity-method affiliate by buying in the Tender Offer, buying in the market, or borrowing lots of shares. There was a plan for Familymart to appoint directors to DQ.There was a clearly-available trading strategy based on that. The new announcement puts that strategy into question. And Mr. Partridge might not be so inclined to call it a bull market. Since the launch of the deal, the markets have started the trip to Gehenna in a trug. From the one-month average prior to the Familymart bid news, Don Quijote is up 25%. Familymart is up 40%, the Nikkei 225 is down 10.7%, the TOPIX retail sector is down 5.5% but Familymart and Don Quijote have influenced that performance (without those two names, average performance is worse).

FamilyMart Tender Offer for Don Quijote Misses The Mark as Mr. Partridge Stands Pat

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

While Nissen and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1349" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1349:1">Senshukai (8165 JP)</a> have hit new lows in the past five years, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5053" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5053:1">Belluna (9997 JP)</a> has gone from strength to strength by sticking with printed catalogues and tying these to e-commerce and retail store expansion.
The company's strategy is also helped by the core customer demographic being women over the age of 50, one of the few population segments that is still growing.
As a result, group sales have risen by 28.8% in five years and operating profit has almost doubled from ¥7.8 billion to ¥13 billion.
The acquisition of Sagami, a kimono retailer that suffered from lack of attention under Uny's management, could also result in a boost to profits in the next year.

While Nissen and Senshukai (8165 JP) have hit new lows in the past five years, Belluna (9997 JP) has gone from strength to strength by sticking with printed catalogues and tying these to e-commerce and retail store expansion.
The company's strategy is also helped by the core customer demographic being women over the age of 50, one of the few population segments that is still growing.
As a result, group sales have risen by 28.8% in five years and operating profit has almost doubled from ¥7.8 billion to ¥13 billion.
The acquisition of Sagami, a kimono retailer that suffered from lack of attention under Uny's management, could also result in a boost to profits in the next year.

Belluna: Growing by Selling Gentility to the Expanding Older Market in Japan

Japan

Pan Pacific International Holdings Corporation operates discount stores which sell consumer electronics, daily necessities, groceries, watches, and sporting goods. The Company mostly operates small scale stores based in Tokyo.

Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

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Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

Japan: Moving Average Outliers - New Year Rally

MARKET COMPOSITE NEW YEAR RALLY - From the December 25th's lows of 8% by number and 11% by value, the percentages of Japanese stocks above the...

Campbell Gunn

The GER Weekly EVENTS Wrap: Healius, FamilyMart, Healthscope, Myob and Hitachi

Happy New Year! Below is a recap of the key event-driven research produced by the Global Equity Research team. This week we dig into the potential...

Rickin Thakrar

FamilyMart: A Shrewd Head-Fake?

We think the failed tender but continued asset sale between Familymart Uny (8028 JP) and Don Quijote (7532 JP) is astutely beneficial for...

Rickin Thakrar

FamilyMart Tender Offer for Don Quijote Misses The Mark as Mr. Partridge Stands Pat

In October, the Nikkei leaked and Familymart Uny Holdings (8028 JP) immediately thereafter announced that Familymart would sell the rest of its GMS...

Travis Lundy

Belluna: Growing by Selling Gentility to the Expanding Older Market in Japan

While Nissen and Senshukai (8165 JP) have hit new lows in the past five years, Belluna (9997 JP) has gone from strength to strength by sticking...

Michael Causton

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52-week Range

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